Andy Devanas; WFO Key West “The Formatter and The Forecaster – moving towards impact based decision support” HLS Format and Content: Proposed Changes – Proposed Training “a two part presentation”

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West Part One In The Beginning… Working group formed by WFOs Key West, Miami, and Melbourne to investigate HLS development and issuance problems encountered during the past tropical season. Members of working group –Key West –Miami –Melbourne –Jacksonville –Tampa –Houston –Brownsville

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West Group Goals –To share experiences (at the WFO level) gained during this tropical season, and to discuss changes to the structure and content of the HLS (if necessary). –If found that changes were necessary; propose these changes at the NOAA Hurricane Conference.

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West –Initially exchange of experiences and ideas –Coordination call among group organizers (KEY, MFL, MLB) in Late August. –Full group conference call on Oct 15 th –Consensus reached Group Activities

Discussion Items Oct 15 th Call Is there a problem – or are we satisfied with current structure? Is there a fundamental problem with the design of the product? –Too long –Too convoluted –Too difficult for customer to find information –Redundant information –Difficult to produce –Not enough focus on impacts and preparedness Andy Devanas; WFO Key West

Discussion Items Oct 15 th Call (cont.) Do we want to get bogged down in technical issues such as VTEC, ETN, formatter? –Can we agree to let the meteorology and not the technology drive product development. Why do we need VTEC in the HLS at all (with all due respect to VTEC)? Why not have a separate hurricane hazards product? Is the HLS formatter driving unnecessary or unwanted segments? Is the HLS formatter preventing logical segmentation? Andy Devanas; WFO Key West

Group Findings/Consensus –Segmentation within the HLS should be the purview of the meteorologists; and not forced by VTEC code or hazard delineation. –The desired product should not be dictated by changes in technology. –Formatters should be designed with the above in mind. –A comprehensive training module emphasizing the quality, content, and clarity of the product needs to be developed (as a companion to technical training).

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West Group Proposal –To support the Scott Spratt Proposal (MLB) Segmentation should be determined by the meteorologist using UGC code.Segmentation should be determined by the meteorologist using UGC code. Remove VTEC from HLS and place in a tropical hazards product (similar to SPC model).Remove VTEC from HLS and place in a tropical hazards product (similar to SPC model). –Find temporary work-around if not feasible for next season. –Develop training module on quality, content, and clarity of HLS product.

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West Example One Tropical Storm Fay – Jax FL HLS structure problems: example one –Too many segments forced by formatter –No time to focus on content of product –60 minutes wrestling with format. Tropical Storm Fay: Jacksonville Fl, Aug Tropical Storm Fay: Jacksonville Fl, Aug –Slow moving weak tropical storm with center of circulation moving out of CWA. –Main threats – inland flooding, isolated tornados –Simple message – stay off roads unless necessary, monitor NOAA weather radio and local media for TOR warnings. Pay attention to EM officials. –Formatter forced 12 segments (over 10 page text product). –Segments not contiguous (coastal Glynn county page one, inland Glynn page 5). –Land zones interspersed with marine zones. –Great potential for dilution of message!

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West

Example Two Hurricane Andrew – Miami, FL HLS structure problems: example two –Too few segments allowed by VTEC Theoretical: Miami, Fl: Hurricane Andrew within 12 hours of landfall.Theoretical: Miami, Fl: Hurricane Andrew within 12 hours of landfall. –Hurricane Warning for Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties would force all to be in same segment. –Because of small size of storm, catastrophic impacts to Dade County, but not for Broward or Palm Beach – or West Coast. –WFO Miami would want to separate Dade County, but could not with current HLS structure.

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West

HLS Format Summary… Allowing forecaster discretion of segmentation would preserve the original intent of the HLS segmentation process, while allowing flexibility dictated by the meteorological scenario and the precautionary and protective action message. Solutions – Long Term - Remove VTEC from product. Short Term (if necessary) – Limit Formatters to tropical warnings/watches only (as required in directive) QUESTIONS?

PART TWO Training Proposal Develop a training module that will focus on HLS content and quality. –emphasize impact based decision support. –how to word impact/threat statements. –how to construct precautionary/preparedness action sections. –what information is critical and how to find it. Andy Devanas; WFO Key West

HLS Training Meteorologists Emergency Managers General Public Media Andy Devanas; WFO Key West During a tropical system… …have very different perspectives of the same event!

Perspectives… Meteorologist Perspective – Focus on Conditions… –What is expected storm surge, freshwater flooding, tornados, and wind? –What is the timing and duration of event? –How to convey meteorological threats to others? Andy Devanas; WFO Key West

Perspectives… Emergency Management Perspective Focus on Impacts (not conditions)… –What protective actions need to be taken? –Where will we need to respond (and to what)? –What type of recovery effort will be needed? Duration of utilities outagesDuration of utilities outages Temporary HousingTemporary Housing Flooding DurationFlooding Duration –How do we mitigate future impacts? Andy Devanas; WFO Key West

Perspectives… General Public Perspective Focus on personal protection – end user… –What’s going to happen to me and my property? –When will it begin and when will it end? –How will this impact my family and friends? –Do I leave or stay – what is TV telling me, what are friends telling me? Am I safe? –What do I do with my pets? –How much gas and money do I need? –WHAT DO I DO!!!!! (NEED INSTRUCTIONS) Andy Devanas; WFO Key West

HLS Design Objective Can HLS answer all these questions and be all things to all people? Probably not. But can be a cooperative effort between emergency management and the NWS to get critical information to the media and public. Do not design for EM’s – design with EM’s! Design for media/general public!! Andy Devanas; WFO Key West Like PNS, SPS

Example… HLS JAX example: –Slow moving weak Tropical Storm PRIMARY THREATS Heavy Rainfall (flooding)Heavy Rainfall (flooding) Isolated TornadosIsolated Tornados SECONDARY IMPACTS Coastal and river flooding – persistent onshore windCoastal and river flooding – persistent onshore wind Hazardous marine conditionsHazardous marine conditions Andy Devanas; WFO Key West

Example… HLS should … emphasize primary threats describe impacts give instructions impacts - information Andy Devanas; WFO Key West DON’T BURY THE LEAD!!

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West Example… FOCUS ON CONDITIONS…...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PLEASE HEED THE ADVISE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West Example… FOCUS ON IMPACTS…...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA HAVE RECOMMENDED EVERYONE REMAIN OFF THE ROADWAYS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN CASE OF EMERGENCY. FLOODING RAINS COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SOME ROADS BECOMING BLOCKED AND SOME TRAFFIC SIGNALS NOT OPERATIVE. THERE IS A RISK A ISOLATED TORNADOES OVERNIGHT… THEREFORE EVERYONE SHOULD POWER ON THEIR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR REMAIN TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS FOR UPDATES ON SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED…YOU SHOULD GO IMMEDIATELY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND LEAVE MOBILE HOMES FOR A STRONGER STRUCTURE.

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West Conclusion HLS quality, content, and clarity training would provide forecasters with guidance on how to produce an effective message. Emphasis would be on proper impact statements and precautionary/protective action statements. HLS quality, content, and clarity training would provide forecasters with guidance on how to produce an effective message. Emphasis would be on proper impact statements and precautionary/protective action statements. HLS should be developed with EM input – to be used by the general public and media.

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West Group Members Key West –Andy Devanas –Jon Rizzo Miami –Pablo Santos –Rob Molleda Melbourne –Dave Sharp –Matt Volkmer –Scott Spratt Jacksonville –Pete Wolf Tampa –Charlie Paxton –Ryan Sharp Houston –Lance Wood –Matt Moreland Brownsville –Barry Goldsmith Special Thanks: Scott Kiser, Walt Zaleski