Seminar on strategies, forecasts and scenarios of APEC economies energy system development (self-funded project proposal) Department of International Cooperation Talyat Aliev Vancouver, May 2011 MINISTRY OF ENERGY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Project’s background 1  Project proposed corresponds to Russia’s priorities in APEC: Strategy, forecasts and scenarios of energy system development of APEC countries and international energy security problem  Project also corresponds to APEC priorities: Providing of energy security in the region and implementation of the Green Growth Plan  Project corresponds to already completed projects within APEC activity: e.g. APEC Oil Supply and Demand Security Seminar - EWG 03/1999S; Coal and Natural Gas Competition in APEC Economies - EWG 03/1998; Application of Energy Indicator Analysis in APEC EconomiesAPEC Oil Supply and Demand Security SeminarCoal and Natural Gas Competition in APEC Economies

Proposed project’s frame 5  Project can be stated/presented to Energy working group (EWG) under Senior Officials' Meeting (SOM) Steering Committee on Economic and Technical Cooperation with the special focus on “Energy Data & Analysis” expert group and/or Business Network (EBN)  Stakeholders: Ministry of energy RF, scientific institutions (incl. Institute for energy strategies (RF), Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RF), International Energy Agency, The Institute of Energy Economics (Japan), energy companies (Gazprom, Kogas, etc.)  Project time-frame – mid/end 2011 – mid 2012  Project budget – USD (self-funded)

Scope of the project 6  Holding a seminar with participation of prominent energy experts of APEC countries, representatives of the world analytical centers in the specified sphere, international energy companies, state bodies.  Seminar’s target - Assistance in APEC energy policies harmonization and in increasing of steadiness/reliability of forecasts and scenarios.  Before the seminar: several expert meetings should be held, where the results of the analysis of existing forecasts and scenarios of energy development of the APEC economies will be discussed (can be held in a form of webinars)  After the seminar: to present a publication (policy paper) containing the recommendations on APEC economies energy policies harmonization

Objectives 7  To conduct a research on energy system development scenarios and forecasts analysis (its basic assumptions and conclusions) for APEC economies  To prepare recommendations on APEC economies energy system development scenarios and forecasts harmonization and increasing of their reliability – analyze the implementation of the APEC Green Growth Plan  To promote the expansion of negotiations between Russia (the potential supplier of energy resources to APEC) and APEC economies (perspective consumers)

Expected results 4  Short-term: establishment of a platform for negotiations for meaningful dialogue carrying out by consideration of the energy development scenarios and state policies of APEC economies and their harmonization  Long-term: Promotion of energy infrastructure construction, which allows Russia (according to RF ES-2030) to diversify energy resources export by the most effective way, and to other APEC participants to diversify import sources