Plans for Short-Range Ensemble Forecast at INM José A. García-Moya SMNT – INM Workshop on Short Range Ensemble Forecast Madrid, October, 3-4 2002.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LAMEPS – Limited area ensemble forecasting in Norway, using targeted EPS Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner,

Advertisements

The COSMO-LEPS system at ECMWF

Trond Iversen met.no & Univ. Of Oslo

Recent Experiences with the INM Multi-model EPS scheme García-Moya, J.A., Callado, A., Santos, C., Santos, D., Simarro, J., B Orfila. Modelling Area –

Numerical Weather Prediction Models

COSMO-SREPS COSMO Priority Project C. Marsigli, A. Montani and T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy.

Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.

C ontacts: Marit Helene Jensen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O.Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 OSLO, NORWAY. HIRLAM at met.no.

Ensemble activities in COSMO C. Marsigli, A. Montani, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM - HydroMeteorological Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy.

Use of Probabilistic Forecasts. Ensembles These are a number of forecasts all run from similar, but slightly different initial conditions The same forecast.

14th ALADIN Workshop, Innsbruck 1-4 June 2004 First LAMEPS experiments at the Hungarian Meteorological Service Edit Hágel and Gabriella Szépszó Hungarian.

Ensembles and Probabilistic Forecasting. Probabilistic Prediction Because of forecast uncertainties, predictions must be provided in a probabilistic framework,

Introduction to Numerical Weather Prediction and Ensemble Weather Forecasting Tom Hamill NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center Boulder, Colorado USA.

The Expanded UW SREF System and Statistical Inference STAT 592 Presentation Eric Grimit 1. Description of the Expanded UW SREF System (How is this thing.

Using Ensembles. CHAOS The idea that a system is very sensitive to the initial conditions – small changes to the initial state end up being big differences.

Juan Ruiz 1,2, Celeste Saulo 1,2, Soledad Cardazzo 1, Eugenia Kalnay 3 1 Departamento de Cs. de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (FCEyN-UBA), 2 Centro de Investigaciones.

Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.

Slide 1 EUMETNET SRNWP Interoperability Workshop 2008 Slide 1 Interoperability with regard to Boundary Conditions Alfred Hofstadler Meteorological Applications.

LAMEPS Development and Plan of ALADIN-LACE Yong Wang et al. Speaker: Harald Seidl ZAMG, Austria Thanks: Météo France, LACE, NCEP.

Francesca Marcucci, Lucio Torrisi with the contribution of Valeria Montesarchio, ISMAR-CNR CNMCA, National Meteorological Center,Italy First experiments.

Performance of the MOGREPS Regional Ensemble

1 LAM EPS Workshop, Madrid, 3-4 October 2002 Ken Mylne and Kelvyn Robertson Met Office Poor Man's EPS experiments and LAMEPS plans at the Met Office.

SRNWP workshop - Bologne Short range ensemble forecasting at Météo-France status and plans J. Nicolau, Météo-France.

SLEPS First Results from SLEPS A. Walser, M. Arpagaus, C. Appenzeller, J. Quiby MeteoSwiss.

DEMETER Taiwan, October 2003 Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction   DEMETER Noel Keenlyside,

Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System at INM José A. García-Moya & Carlos Santos SMNT – INM COSMO Meeting Zurich, September 2005.

WWOSC 2014, Aug 16 – 21, Montreal 1 Impact of initial ensemble perturbations provided by convective-scale ensemble data assimilation in the COSMO-DE model.

ISDA 2014, Feb 24 – 28, Munich 1 Impact of ensemble perturbations provided by convective-scale ensemble data assimilation in the COSMO-DE model Florian.

NWP Activities at INM Bartolomé Orfila Estrada Area de Modelización - INM 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings Zürich, October 2005.

How can LAMEPS * help you to make a better forecast for extreme weather Henrik Feddersen, DMI * LAMEPS =Limited-Area Model Ensemble Prediction.

A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans 2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005 The COSMO-LEPS system: recent.

COSMO Priority Project CORSO “ C onsolidation of O peration and R esearch results for the S ochi O lympic Games” General Meeting 2011.

WORKSHOP ON SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION USING LIMITED-AREA MODELS Instituto National de Meteorologia, Madrid, 3-4 October 2002 Limited-Area Ensemble.

2nd SRNWP Workshop on Short Range EPS 7-8 April 2005, Bologna Aula Prodi Piazza San Giovanni in Monte.

COSMO-SREPS Priority Project C. Marsigli ARPA-SIM - HydroMeteorological Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy.

Celeste Saulo and Juan Ruiz CIMA (CONICET/UBA) – DCAO (FCEN –UBA)

Notes on reforecasting and the computational capacity needed for future SREF systems Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research Lab presentation for 2009 National.

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no GLAMEPS: GLAMEPS GLAMEPS: Grand Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction System Overview of activities EWGLAM –

Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System at INM José A. García-Moya SMNT – INM 27th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings Ljubljana, October 2005.

1 DET Mesoscale Ensemble Workshop August 2010 NCEP Regional Ensemble Status and Plans Geoff DiMego and Jun Du NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling.

Interoperability at INM Experience with the SREPS system J. A. García-Moya NWP – Spanish Met Service INM SRNWP Interoperability Workshop ECMWF –

Multi-model Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting at Spanish Met Agency (AEMET) J. A. García-Moya, A. Callado, P. Escriba, C. Santos, D. Santos, J. Simarro.

GIVE ME ODDS FORECASTING ENSEMBLE. KEY POINTS THERE ARE INEVITABLE UNCERTAINTIES IN NWP DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN INITIAL CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORMULATION.

COSMO – 09/2007 STC Report and Presentation by Cosmo Partners DWD, MCH, USAM / ARPA SIM, HNMS, IMGW, NMA, HMC.

SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 SREPS Priority Project: final report C. Marsigli, A. Montani, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM - HydroMeteorological.

Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 SRNWP Lead Centre Report on Data Assimilation 2005 for EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting October 2005, Ljubljana, Slovenia.

NWP Activities at INM José A. García-Moya SMNT – INM 27th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings Ljubljana, October 2005.

Perturbation of Parametrized Tendencies and Surface Parameters in the Lokal-Modell Susanne Theis Andreas Hense Ulrich Damrath Volker Renner.

Multi-model Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting at Spanish Met Institute

FE 1 Ensemble Predictions Based on the Convection-Resolving Model COSMO-DE Susanne Theis Christoph Gebhardt Tanja Winterrath Volker Renner Deutscher Wetterdienst.

Progress Report!for 2003 INM Operational system in use at the end of 2003 (I) The operational system is still based on HIRLAM version.

Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System at INM García-Moya, J.A., Santos, C., Escribà, P.A., Santos, D., Callado, A., Simarro, J. (NWPD, INM, SPAIN) 2nd.

PP CONSENS Merging COSMO-LEPS and COSMO- SREPS for the short-range Chiara Marsigli, Tiziana Paccagnella, Andrea Montani ARPA-SIMC, Bologna, Italy.

Status of the NWP-System & based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM COSMO I77 kmBCs from IFSNudgingCINECA COSMO I22.8 kmBCs from COSMO I7 Interpolated from COSMO.

Predicting Intense Precipitation Using Upscaled, High-Resolution Ensemble Forecasts Henrik Feddersen, DMI.

1Deutscher WetterdienstMärz 2005 April 2005: 19 NWS/ 21 forecast products (1) AustriaALADIN-LACE (9.6 km) ARPEGE (2) Czech Repub ALADIN-LACE (9 km) ARPEGE.

Progress in development of HARMONIE 3D-Var and 4D-Var Contributions from Magnus Lindskog, Roger Randriamampianina, Ulf Andrae, Ole Vignes, Carlos Geijo,

LEPS VERIFICATION ON MAP CASES

Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast

COSMO-DE-EPS Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold,

AGREPS – ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System

Preliminary test for the development of a 2.8km ensemble over Italy

Christoph Gebhardt, Zied Ben Bouallègue, Michael Buchhold

NWP Strategy of DWD after 2006 GF XY DWD Feb-19.

Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System

42h forecast HIRLAM 50km 24h accumulated precipitation.

2nd SRNWP Workshop on Short Range Ensemble 7-8 April 2005 Bologna

MOGREPS developments and TIGGE

Short Range Ensemble Prediction System Verification over Greece

The Impact of Moist Singular Vectors and Horizontal Resolution on Short-Range Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasts for Extreme Weather Events A. Walser1) M.

Presentation transcript:

Plans for Short-Range Ensemble Forecast at INM José A. García-Moya SMNT – INM Workshop on Short Range Ensemble Forecast Madrid, October,

October 2002Workshop on SREPS2 Goals of the workshop Methodology and guidelines to build our Ensemble System, but after yesterday presentations… Guidelines to chose a System name: Downscaling ECMWF  EPS LEPS (Tibaldi, ARPA) LAMEPS (Mylne, UKMO) SREF (Du, NCEP) PEACE (Nicolau, MeteoFrance) LAMEPS (Theis, Univ Bonn-DWD) SREPS (García-Moya, INM) SREPULAM (Orfila, INM)

October 2002Workshop on SREPS3 Introduction Surface parameters are the most important ones for weather forecast. Forecast of extreme events (convective precip, gales,…) is probabilistic. Short Range Ensemble prediction can help to forecast these events. Forecast risk (Palmer, ECMWF Seminar) is the goal for both Medium- and, also, Short-Range Prediction.

October 2002Workshop on SREPS4 Errors of the short range forecasts Due to model formulation. Due to simplifications in parameterisation schemes. Due to uncertainty in the initial state. Special for LAMs, due to errors in lateral boundary conditions.

October 2002Workshop on SREPS5 SREPS I Multi-model approach. Stochastic physics. Multi-boundaries: From few global deterministic models. From global model EPS (ECMWF).

October 2002Workshop on SREPS6 SREPS II Different assimilation techniques: OI Variational (3D or 4D) Perturbed analysis: Singular vectors (ECMWF). Breeding (NCEP). Scaled Lagged Average Forecast (SAMEX).

October 2002Workshop on SREPS7 What do we need? Enough computer power. Research Following workshop recommendations. Technical difficulties. Large storage system. Database software (MARS). Postprocessing and graphics software. Enough staff for maintenance and monitoring. Verification software.

October 2002Workshop on SREPS8 INM New computer Cray Inc. SV2. 40 vector PEs in June additional PEs in December Around 360 IFS sustained Gfs in December 2004.

October 2002Workshop on SREPS9 Characteristics Integration area Euro-Atlantic. Resolution, around 25 Km and 31 vertical levels. 72 hours forecast. 4 / 8 times a day (depending on computer power).

October 2002Workshop on SREPS10 Area

October 2002Workshop on SREPS11 Multi-model Hirlam HRM, former limited area model from DWD. MM5. ETA model or any other available numerical model.

October 2002Workshop on SREPS12 Boundary Conditions From different global deterministic models: ECMWF. Hirlam. AVN (NCEP). GME, DWD global model.

October 2002Workshop on SREPS13 Multi-analysis Assimilation techniques: Hirlam OI Hirlam 3DVAR Perturbations (research needed): SLAF (AN  K ( AN - FCHH ), 0  k  1 ) Singular vectors Breeding

October 2002Workshop on SREPS14 Ensemble 4 models. 4 boundary conditions. 2 analysis. 4 last ensembles (HH, HH-6, HH-12, HH- 18). 32 member ensemble every 6 hours Time-lagged Super-Ensemble of 128 members every 6 hours.

October 2002Workshop on SREPS15 Verification Objective verification against observations: Show different performance of members. Try a quality index for each member (research needed). Probabilistic forecast verification: ROC curves. Economic value of the forecast. Rank histograms (Talagrand diagrams).

October 2002Workshop on SREPS16 Assumption on probability Basic research needed: Same probability for each member of the ensemble. Probability function of the quality index of the member (DEMETER result on multimodel ensemble).

October 2002Workshop on SREPS17 Implementation plan Computer depending: Offline daily running: June Operations: June 2005.

October 2002Workshop on SREPS18 Further research Singular vectors vs. breeding. Stochastic physics.

October 2002Workshop on SREPS19

October 2002Workshop on SREPS20 Few control runs – Assim cycle Hirlam 3DVAR + ECMWF boundaries (6 hours old). HRM, OI analysis + GME boundaries (12 hours old). ETA, OI/3DVAR analysis + AVN (NCEP) boundaries (12 hours old). IFS/INM 3DVAR analysis. UKMO Unified model analysis + UKMO boundaries (6 hours old).