Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik MBBS, MPH, MCPS (Com Med) MBBS, MPH, MCPS (Com Med) Assistant Professor Assistant Professor Department of Community Medicine Department of Community Medicine Sheikh Zayed Medical College Sheikh Zayed Medical College Rahim Yar Khan Rahim Yar Khan Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

DEMOGRAPHY It is the scientific study of human population concerning their size, distribution, structure and changes within them. It is the scientific study of human population concerning their size, distribution, structure and changes within them. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

Demographic processes It includes 5 processes e.g. marriage, fertility, mortality, migration & social mobility. It includes 5 processes e.g. marriage, fertility, mortality, migration & social mobility.

DEMOGRAPHY SIZE: SIZE: Refers to the number of persons in the population at a given time. (growth, decline). Refers to the number of persons in the population at a given time. (growth, decline). DISTRIBUTION: DISTRIBUTION: Refers to the arrangement of the population in space at a given time. Refers to the arrangement of the population in space at a given time. STRUCTURE: STRUCTURE: Is the distribution of the population among its sex and age groupings Is the distribution of the population among its sex and age groupings Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

DEMOGRAPHY CHANGES occur due to growth or decline of the total population resulting from births, deaths, and in- or out migration. CHANGES occur due to growth or decline of the total population resulting from births, deaths, and in- or out migration. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

POPULATION STUDY Population studies are not only concerned with demographic variables (births, deaths and migration) but also with relationships between population changes and other variables- social, economic, political, biological, genetic, geographical, environment, health and alike. Population studies are not only concerned with demographic variables (births, deaths and migration) but also with relationships between population changes and other variables- social, economic, political, biological, genetic, geographical, environment, health and alike. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE 1. High stationary: 1. High stationary: ↑↑↑ Birth rate= ↑↑↑ Death rate ↑↑↑ Birth rate= ↑↑↑ Death rate 2. Early expanding: 2. Early expanding: ↑↑↑ Birth rate= ↑↑ Death rate ↑↑↑ Birth rate= ↑↑ Death rate 3. Late expanding: 3. Late expanding: ↑↑ Birth rate= ↑ Death rate ↑↑ Birth rate= ↑ Death rate 4. Low stationary: 4. Low stationary: ↑ Birth rate= ↑ Death rate ↑ Birth rate= ↑ Death rate 5. Declining: 5. Declining: ↑ Birth rate= ↑↑ Death rate ↑ Birth rate= ↑↑ Death rate Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

WORLD POPULATION 007 AD250 millions 007 AD250 millions millions (1800 years) millions (1800 years) M M M M M M M M M(175 years) M(175 years) M M M M M M Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

POPULATION OF WORLD Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

DOUBLING TIME It implies the time needed for the population to double (70/ GR). It implies the time needed for the population to double (70/ GR). More the growth rate of population, less the doubling time. More the growth rate of population, less the doubling time. Annual growth rate Doubling time (yrs) Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

WORLD POPULATION Three fourth of pop.Developing countries Three fourth of pop.Developing countries Populous countries are Populous countries are China1285 M (21.08%) China1285 M (21.08%) India1027 m (16.87%) India1027 m (16.87%) USA286 M (4.63%) USA286 M (4.63%) Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

CRUDE BIRTH RATE It is the number of births per 1000 population per year in a given community. It is the number of births per 1000 population per year in a given community. Pakistan Birth rate: 24.3 births/1,000 population (2012 est.) Pakistan Birth rate: 24.3 births/1,000 population (2012 est.) The birth rate is usually the dominant factor in determining the rate of population growth. It depends on both the level of fertility and the age structure of the population. The birth rate is usually the dominant factor in determining the rate of population growth. It depends on both the level of fertility and the age structure of the population. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

CRUDE DEATH RATE It is the total number of deaths per 1000 population per year in a given community. It indicates the rate at which people are dying. It is the total number of deaths per 1000 population per year in a given community. It indicates the rate at which people are dying. Death rate of Pakistan Death rate of Pakistan 6.8 deaths/1,000 population (July 2011 est.) 6.8 deaths/1,000 population (July 2011 est.) Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

GROWTH RATE When crude death rate is subtracted from crude birth rate, the net result is annual growth rate. When crude death rate is subtracted from crude birth rate, the net result is annual growth rate. The growth rate is commonly expressed in percentage. The growth rate is commonly expressed in percentage. GR=CBR-CDR GR=CBR-CDR Growth rate is subjected to momentum. Growth rate is subjected to momentum. The factors are age distribution, marriage customs, cultural, social and economic factors. The factors are age distribution, marriage customs, cultural, social and economic factors. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

POPULATION GROWTH It refers to the rate at which a given population is expected to increase in a given period of time. It is presented in %age. It refers to the rate at which a given population is expected to increase in a given period of time. It is presented in %age. PG= NATURAL INCREASE+NET MIGRATION PG= NATURAL INCREASE+NET MIGRATION Net migration is the total number of persons added or subtracted from a population as a result of combined effect of immigration and emigration. Net migration is the total number of persons added or subtracted from a population as a result of combined effect of immigration and emigration. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

PAKISTAN POPULATION GROWTH Population growth rate Population growth rate 1.551% (2011 est.) 1.551% (2011 est.) Population Population 190,291,129 (July 2011 est.) 190,291,129 (July 2011 est.)

CBR & CDR Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

CBR & CDR CountryCBRCDR Pakistan309 India249 Bangladesh298 Thailand187 China157 JAPAN98 Singapore105 UK1010 USA158 WORLD229 Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

ZERO POPULATION GROWTH Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility When a couple has two births during their reproductive life, just enough to replace themselves. When a couple has two births during their reproductive life, just enough to replace themselves. At a community level, replacement level is considered when there are, on an average 2.1 births per woman. At a community level, replacement level is considered when there are, on an average 2.1 births per woman. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

AGE – SEX COMPOSITION It refers the to the proportion of males and females in different age groups. It refers the to the proportion of males and females in different age groups. Age sex composition has a direct impact on social, economic, and health needs of communities. Age sex composition has a direct impact on social, economic, and health needs of communities. OLD population-care of elderly OLD population-care of elderly YOUNG population-more schools, vaccinations, economic support YOUNG population-more schools, vaccinations, economic support Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

Pakistan Age Structure Age structure Age structure 0-14 years: 35.4% (male 34,093,853/female 32,278,462) years: 60.4% (male 58,401,016/female 54,671,873) 65 years and over: 4.2% (male 3,739,647/female 4,157,870) (2011 est.) 0-14 years: 35.4% (male 34,093,853/female 32,278,462) years: 60.4% (male 58,401,016/female 54,671,873) 65 years and over: 4.2% (male 3,739,647/female 4,157,870) (2011 est.)

Pakistan Sex Ratio Sex ratio Sex ratio at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female under 15 years: 1.06 male(s)/female years: 1.07 male(s)/female 65 years and over: 0.89 male(s)/female total population: 1.06 male(s)/female (2011 est.) at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female under 15 years: 1.06 male(s)/female years: 1.07 male(s)/female 65 years and over: 0.89 male(s)/female total population: 1.06 male(s)/female (2011 est.)

POPULATION PYRAMID It is a pictorial presentation of age sex composition of a population. It is a pictorial presentation of age sex composition of a population. Male to female ratio in diff. age groups Male to female ratio in diff. age groups Population is old or young Population is old or young Dependency ratio Dependency ratio Rate at which population is increasing Rate at which population is increasing Recent changes in fertility or mortality. Recent changes in fertility or mortality.

Sex Ratio It is the number of females per 1000 males It is the number of females per 1000 males It is affected by It is affected by Mortality conditions among male and females Mortality conditions among male and females Sex selective migration Sex selective migration Sex ratio at birth Sex ratio at birth Sex ratio= no. of males/no. of femalesX100 Sex ratio= no. of males/no. of femalesX100 Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

Dependency Ratio The proportion of persons above 65 years and below 15 years of age are considered to be dependent on the economically productive age group. The proportion of persons above 65 years and below 15 years of age are considered to be dependent on the economically productive age group. The ratio of combined age group 0-14 years plus 65 years and above to the years age group is referred as dependency ratio. The ratio of combined age group 0-14 years plus 65 years and above to the years age group is referred as dependency ratio. Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

Dependency Ratio Pakistan = > 80 % Pakistan = > 80 % Japan = 43 % Japan = 43 % Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

Growth rates 95% growth is in developing countries 95% growth is in developing countries Population will be 8 billion in 2025 Population will be 8 billion in 2025 Population will be 10 billion in 2050 Population will be 10 billion in 2050 Population will be 20.7 billion in Population will be 20.7 billion in According to the latest Economic Survey of Pakistan, the country’s population growth rate declined from 2.05 per cent in to 2.03 per cent in , According to the latest Economic Survey of Pakistan, the country’s population growth rate declined from 2.05 per cent in to 2.03 per cent in , Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik

Growth rates 176 per minute 176 per minute per hour per hour 253,542 per day 253,542 per day 92,543,000 per year 92,543,000 per year Dr. Muhammad Razzaq Malik