Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa Integrating our understandings of zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing Mohammed Said Addis, Ethiopia, October 2014

Dynamic Drivers of Disease Consortium Consortium partners ESRC STEPS Centre, UK University of Cambridge, UK Institute of Zoology, UK University of Edinburgh, UK University College London (UCL), UK Wildlife Division of the Forestry Commission, Ghana University of Ghana, Ghana Department of Veterinary Services, Kenya International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Kenya University of Nairobi, Kenya Kenema Government Hospital, Sierra Leone Njala University, Sierra Leone Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Development, Zambia University of Zambia, Zambia Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Irrigation Development, Zimbabwe University of Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden Tulane University, USA

Specific Research Questions How does ecological change (e.g. biodiversity, vegetation and habitat, water) shaped by human-ecosystem interactions affect pathogen dynamics and likelihood of zoonotic spillover and transmission? How do peoples’ interactions with ecosystems (cultural and provisioning ecosystem services - bush meat, farming, grazing, gathering) impact on disease exposure to the disease?

TRYPANOSOMIASIS AAT/HAT Zambia: Noreen Machila, Joseph Mubanga Zimbabwe : William Shereni Vupenyu Dzingirai RIFT VALLEY FEVER Kenya: Bernard Bett Diseases and Settings HENIPAVIRUS Ghana: Yaa Ntiamoah- Baidu, Richard Suu-Ire LASSA FEVER Sierra Leone: Tom Winnebah

Study Site Tana River Source: KSS, ILRI

Multi-scale data collection and modelling Focus on the (relatively unknown) broad- scale spatial patterns of disease ecology and evolution. Pattern-based empirical modelling approaches, applied across multiple scales

OUTPUTS INTO USE Approach applied ecosystem service management Improved evidence base Integrated OH policy interventions (OH Tripartite) Integrated OH surveillance approaches Strengthened Institutions (responsiveness) Wellness

Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) Stakeholder Engagement Staging Scenarios (A Management, Climate, Population) Models BiodiversityProvisioningRegulatingCulturalSupporting SpeciesFoodClimateRecreationPollination HabitatsTimberStabilityTradition Fresh WaterCommunity Flood Control Outputs ~ Biophysical, Economic, Cultural Maps Trade-off Curves Balance Sheets Source: InVEST Documentation

InVEST information flow and integration of the model Source: InVEST Documentation

Land cover changes Source: Said, Kifugo et al. (in prep)

Mathematical modelling - RVF

Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis PIPA

Kenya – Zoonotic Disease Unit ZDU to disseminate and influence national ministries (health, agriculture, livestock development and public health) – generate cross-ministerial dialogue on trade-offs Information shared with policymakers to cascade down to One Health practitioners (district vets and medical health officers, and agriculture and livestock extension officers) Practitioners work with local communities in implementing recommendations