Fertility Decline over the Past 35 years: What Have We Learned? Shareen Joshi Georgetown University Rachel Nugent Center for Global Development April, 2010

Since 1970, fertility rates have fallen everywhere TFR > 8TFR>6TFR>4.5TFR<3.5 Number of countries, Number of countries, Note: Analysis is based on a sample of 188 countries for whom fertility data is available in 1970 and We also exclude from our sample, all those countries for whom data on TFRs is missing in Source: World Development Indicators Online, 2009.

There are two major groups of countries… Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

One group has experienced a dramatic fall in fertility Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

The other has had much less fertility decline Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

Most of these are in Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

Drivers of fertility decline in HL countries Socio- Economic Change Proximate Determinants of Fertility Fertility Decline Increases in income Expansion of education (particularly for women) Decreases in infant and child mortality Diffusion of information Urbanization Increased use of modern contraceptives Increases in age at marriage There is no “perfect” recipe, no critical threshold for any of these variables

Lets look at the income variable The relationship between fertility and income has remained negative for a long time

But in 1970, HH countries were similar to HL countries in terms of both fertility and income per-capita…

…they diverged significantly in the years that followed

An interesting comparison from the most recent data There are many examples of HL countries that achieved fertility decline under lower per-capita incomes than many of today’s HH countries HL countries GNI per-capita (current US $) TFR HH countries GNI per-capita (current US $) TFR Bangladesh$4402.9Mali$ Lao PDR$4803.3Zambia$ Nepal$3003.1Uganda$2906.8

Another variable: Education

The variation is even more significant for female education

Some interesting comparisons All countries with less than 90% gross enrolment rates tend to be HL countries All countries with less than 90% gross enrolment rates tend to be HL countries But there is still lots of variation at higher gross enrolment rates: But there is still lots of variation at higher gross enrolment rates: Many countries achieved fertility decline with low levels of education Many countries achieved fertility decline with low levels of education BangladeshBangladesh VietnamVietnam HH countries Primary school enrolment TFR HL countries Primary school enrolment TFR Nigeria 96%5.5Lebanon95%2.2 Cameroon108%4.5India114%2.6

What is the role of policy? Socio- Economic Change Proximate Determinants of Fertility Fertility Decline Population Policy Direct policies Indirect policies Economic Policies Health + Education Policy

Population policies have been shaped by both domestic and international trends International policy Major players: United Nations (UNFPA), World Bank, Ford Foundation, USAID, DFID, etc. Organized conferences, funded research, urged governments to address population issues and funded the programs themselves Domestic policy Major players: National governments, NGOs Tremendous variation in types of policies that were adopted across countries

International population policy has shown several shifts Expansion of population programs Malthusian fears Belief in growth through physical capital accumulation Scale back of population programs Revisionist intellectual movement Belief in human capital Skepticism on effectiveness of family-planning programs Focus on reproductive health Emphasis on rights, de-emphasis of family- planning Reproductive health related to broad issues of gender, empowerment Focus on treatment of STIs such as HIV 1950— — —Now For more information, see Joshi and Dasgupta (2010), Forthcoming

Promotion of family planning (specially permanent methods) Incentives for smaller families Demographic targets Information campaigns Direct policies Broader focus on reproductive health Promotion of family planning for other reasons -- spacing births, preventing STIs, etc. Indirect policies Domestic population policies vary significantly Lessons on what works: Strong national leadership An evidence-based approach A focus on the poorest and most marginalized For more information, see Joshi and Dasgupta (2010), Forthcoming

Conclusion: No perfect recipe but lots of options available to policy-makers! Socio- Economic Change Proximate Determinants of Fertility Fertility Decline Population Policy Direct policies Indirect policies Economic Policies Health + Education Policy