Many Ways to Win Kevin Fleming April 26, 2013

education counts $114,800 $41,473 $33,938 $63,310

USA Median Annual Earnings by Education $200,000 in debt Earning $36,000/year

(but skills count more) education counts

Human Pie Chart

The Fate of 20 Ninth Graders (CA) 6 drop out (30%) 6 graduate & go to work (30%) 8 Enroll in college (40%) 4 Drop out (20%) 4 Graduate in five years (20%) 2 Take “gray collar” jobs, nationally (10%) 2 Win the one-way-to-win game (10%)

Ventura County: by the numbers (CALPADS, ) 3.5% drop out annually (9-12 th grade: 1,631 total) Appr. 14% of all students dropout during high school

Ventura County: by the numbers (CALPADS, ) 3.5% drop out annually (9-12 th grade: 1,631 total) Appr. 14% of all students dropout during high school Among the 86% that become seniors (11,535) 84% of them graduated high school (9,719)

Ventura County: by the numbers (CALPADS, ) 3.5% drop out annually (9-12 th grade: 1,631 total) Appr. 14% of all students dropout during high school Among the 86% that become seniors (11,535) 84% of them graduated high school (9,719) Among those that graduated, 34.3% of 12 th grade graduates completed all courses required for UC and/or CSU entrance

Ventura County: by the numbers (CALPADS, ) 100% 9 th graders - 14% dropouts - 16% non-graduating seniors % not university bound 24.78% of 9 th graders could directly enroll in university 100% 9 th graders - 14% dropouts - 16% non-graduating seniors - 21% not college bound (79.3% postsecondary enrollment) 57.07% of 9 th graders eventually enroll in some college

75% of Ventura county 9 th graders Don’t play the One-Way-to-Win game

43% of Ventura county 9 th graders Do not enroll in postsecondary education…

The Three“Rs” Reading Writing Arithmetic Relevance Reality Five

Most Jobs in the Workplace are Middle Skilled: (e.g. the Health Care Industry) Ratio: 1 to 2 to 7

Not Everyone needs a BA. By 2018, most jobs will not require a BA Source: March CPS data, various years; Center on Education and the Workforce forecast of educational demand to 2018, as reported in Pathways to Prosperity (Harvard, February, 2011)

“The society which scorns excellence in plumbing because plumbing is a humble activity and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because it is an exalted activity will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy. Neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water” - John Gardner, 1961

Median, 25th Percentile, and 75th Percentile Earnings of Full-Time Year-Round Workers Ages 25 and Older, by Gender and Education Level, 2008 Sources: The College Board, Education Pays 2010, Figure 1.5; U.S. Census Bureau, 2009; calculations by the authors. AA/AS recipients $26,800 - $68,000 BA/BS recipients $33,900 - $96,800

The fact is that large numbers of CA college graduates leave school as unsure of what they will do “ when they grow up ” (except perhaps continue to go to school) as they were when they started. – CA Postsecondary Education Commission

30% of associate degree holders have higher annual earnings as 4-yr grads

College-Prep and CTE are complementary not competing goals...

College-Prep and CTE are complementary not competing goals ! Students in CTE pathways: –More likely to complete a-g requirements (50% vs 34%) –More likely to pass the CAHSEE (71% vs 55%) –Had higher graduation rates (96% vs 87%) –Had lower drop out rates –Higher postsecondary participation

UC Riverside – ROP Study Compared to students with similar academic background, ROP students: –raised GPAs more rapidly –attended college in larger numbers –females/minorities earned higher incomes –received raises and promotions at a higher rate (UCR, 2007)

Determine the Goal College? College and graduation? College, graduation and commensurate employment?

CTE is to some teens what AP & Honors is to others

Thank You! Kevin Fleming