1. COLLEGE FOR ALL? George Farkas Department of Education UC, Irvine

2. “Tonight, I ask every American to commit to at least one year or more of higher education or career training. This can be community college or a four-year school; vocational training or an apprenticeship. But whatever the training may be, every American will need to get more than a high school diploma.” “…This country needs and values the talents of every American. That is why we will provide the support necessary for you to complete college and meet a new goal: by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.” President Barack Obama, Address to Congress, February 25, 2009

3. President Obama joined the push for universal higher education 85% of U.S. 10 th graders say they plan to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher A dramatic increase from 30 years ago This year, 800,000 AA degrees awarded 1.7 million B.A.s 660,000 master’s 96,000 first-professional degrees 70,000 doctor’s degrees

4. Total College Enrollment 2010-11: 19.1 million students Public 2-year: 6.7 million students Public 4-year: 7.5 million Private 4-year: 4.6 million Private 2-year: 0.3 million Cost of annual tuition, room, and board: Public: $12, 283 with in-state tuition Private: $31,233

6. College grads earn a lot more than high school grads over their careers, and also have lower unemployment Increasingly, employers are looking for a college degree Most parents want their children to go to college

8. But are students’ B.A. expectations realistic? Can all students, even with GPAs and test scores in the bottom half, earn a 4 year degree? Benefits and costs of encouraging them to try? Perhaps it’s a disservice to push them towards college?

9. Benefits: Access to newly professionalized jobs and occupations in expanding industries (e.g. health care, information processing) Earnings and employment gains also apply for students who attend college but do not graduate (although gains are smaller) High school students with college plans enroll in more challenging courses and work harder in high school Effects go beyond employment and earnings to include marriage and parenting

10. Costs: Relatively high drop out rates from college Graduation rates depend on who you count as enrolled (vs “trying it out”) and how long you give them to graduate Among those ever enrolled in a 4-year college, about 60% earn a B.A.; for 2-year colleges, 24% earn an A.A. These rates depend crucially on high school GPA and family social class background

11. Costs, continued Many of these students never attain credits toward a college degree, since the courses they enroll in are remedial Many take out relatively large loans to attend college, and end up with high levels of debt and nothing to show for it These students often forego full-time employment, earnings and OJT that is provided by full time work experience.

12. Costs, continued Under “College for All,” many school districts are reducing or dismantling their vocational education programs Yet, these programs may provide the best opportunity for students with mechanical but not scholastic aptitude

13. What is to be done? One possibility: move away from college for all. Instead, build up high school vocational education programs. Make them more like those in Germany and Japan, where high school teachers have strong linkages with employers, and place voc students into good jobs. This would be a complete policy change. High school vocational education has been substantially dismantled. Many successful training programs beyond high school: auto mechanics at Folsom Prison, SoCal Connected diver training at a prison, OCC airplane mechanics program

14. What is to be done? (continued) A second possibility is to better inform high school students about the academic requirements of college, so they can avoid mistakes such as taking only remedial courses while piling up debt. Improve advising. Provide better advice for, and linkages to, later employment.

15. Policy Issues Change high school advising? Vocational versus academic coursework: no-college, 2-year, or 4-year college? How important is the open access provided by low-cost community colleges? How much should we raise community college tuition and how much should we reduce community college course offerings? The same questions apply to the Cal State and UC Systems