2009 Economic and Commodity Outlook ASFMRA Denver, Colorado October 30, 2009

2009 THREE BIGGEST EVENTS of LAST TWO WEEKS

2009 October 17,2009 Purdue 26 THE Ohio State 18

2009 October 24,2009 Purdue 24 Illinois 14

2009 October 24,2009 Iowa State 9 Nebraska 7

2009 General Economy Where are we headed…

2009 CASH for CLUNKERS was A GOOD DEAL

2009 GOT a LOT of OBAMA BUMPER STICKERS OFF THE ROAD

2009 Economic Overview  While some economic indicators are hinting the recession is ending – it isn’t.  Unemployment remains high with little sign of improvement.  Deflation continues.  This will be the decade of Three Bubbles: 1. The High Tech Bubble of The Housing Bubble of The Commodity Price Bubble of 2008.

2009 Name this country…

2009 Richest in the world Largest military Center of world business and finance Strongest education system World center of innovation and invention Currency the world standard of value Highest standard of living

2009 ENGLAND

2009 In 1900

of every 8 couples married in the U.S. last year met online

2009

Dow Jones Industrial Average, Continuous Monthly With Disparity Ratio

2009 Dow Jones Industrial Average, Daily

2009 US Dollar Index, Continuous Monthly

2009

Gold Futures, Continuous Monthly

2009 GCZ9

2009 Crude Oil, Continuous Monthly (NYMEX)

2009

Agriculture Overview Grain prices have likely bottomed for this marketing year Livestock profits will improve Ethanol production will increase Fertilizer supplies could get tight All ag commodity prices will be very volatile.

2009

Ethanol Plants in Production

2009 Ethanol vs. Gasoline Futures

2009

Can Ethanol Demand Reach 4.2 Billion Bushels in 2009/10?

2009

Natural Gas Futures, Continuous Monthly

2009

Corn Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

2009 December 2009 Corn Futures

2009 December 2010 Corn Futures

2009

Soybean Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

2009 November 2009 Soybean Futures

2009 November 2010 Soybean Futures

2009

HRS: Underlined, SRW: Bold, HRW: Normal

2009

Wheat Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

2009 December 2009 Wheat Futures

2009

Source: Iowa State University

2009

Live Cattle Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

2009 December 2009 Live Cattle Futures

2009 Source: Iowa State University

2009

Lean Hogs Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

2009 December 2009 Lean Hog Futures

2009

* All data is in thousand heads. Bold: End 2004 * 2009 data: Source, USDA, as of August * * * * 1,236 1,257* * * * 1,741 1,782* Number of Cows 9,013 9,269* Total US Cows

2009

Class III Milk Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

2009 December 2009 Class III Milk Futures

2009 In Summary Farm income will be down in 2009, due primarily to livestock. Profits will bounce back in Producers in the southern half of the US will be mostly price buyers, not quality buyers, in the coming months. Yield increases in corn and soybeans are starting to ramp up sharply. Livestock prices have already made a major bottom.

2009 Land prices and cash rents will stay strong in the Midwest. California and other states impacted by dairy losses, water availability and environmental issues will soften Consolidation of farms will continue increasing the demand for farm management services and appraisals

2009 For More Information on the Brock Report, write, or call BROCK ASSOCIATES 2050 W. Good Hope Rd. Milwaukee, WI (800)