Somalia Conflict Analysis Conflict-Sensitive Assistance May 18, 2006

Increase understanding of conflict sources and dynamics in Somalia:  Inform design of interventions  Enable effective implementation  Enable “do no harm” and potential conflict prevention Purpose of Study Somalia Conflict Analysis

Consider potential impact of all strategies and interventions on the conflict environment avoid contributing to escalation if possible contribute to de-escalation Sometimes trade-off between technical solutions and conflict impact Conflict Sensitivity Somalia Conflict Analysis

Bank-led exercise with multi-donor support (UNDP, SIDA, DFID) Partnerships with local NGOs from three regions of Somalia – Somaliland, Puntland and South-Central Somalia Advisory group of donors and organizations active on Somalia External reviewers Somalia Conflict Analysis

1.Desk study using Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF) variables adapted to Somali context 2.Analysis of preliminary findings and determination of key issues in each region for fieldwork 3.Fieldwork by teams in each region using different qualitative techniques 4.Regional reports and synthesis report 5.Use of findings for policy/program development Somalia Conflict Analysis

Armed conflicts in Somalia usually take place along clan lines, but clan identity is not cause of conflict Clan identities shaped by leaders to pursue control of resources and power When manipulated, clan identities can create and exacerbate divisions Clan groups can serve as destructive or constructive forces, e.g. by moderating traditional conflicts  How can we best provide material and financial aid in this environment? Clan Identities: findings Somalia Conflict Analysis

 Make sure aid does not fuel clan-group competition or divisions  Support cross-clan activities and institutions  Use aid to help bridge divided groups  Consider role of clan leaders  Consider effects of material and financial aid and benefits on clan dynamics Clan Identities: pointers Somalia Conflict Analysis

Struggle for control of the state – i.e. access to political power and economic resources - has been a continuing source of conflict Previous experiences have made Somalis suspicious of government  How can state-building be supported in a way that minimizes chances of conflict? State and Governance: findings Somalia Conflict Analysis

 Be prepared for political struggle around state-building  Support clan-neutral governance functions  Learn from and build on institutions that work (e.g. non-state actors)  Promote institutions that are inclusive (clans, sub-clans, ethnicity, socioeconomic characteristics) State and Governance: pointers Somalia Conflict Analysis

Livestock ban hurt pastoral dominated economy Remittances are vital lifeline Private sector activity created dynamic sectors Qat (khat) consumption and trade Control of commercial arteries Profit-driven diaspora promotes cross-clan business partnerships  What would be conflict-sensitive economic priorities? Economic Development: findings Somalia Conflict Analysis

 Don’t create an aid dependent Somalia – in the past increased state fragility and conflict  Consider effects of large-scale projects and high-value investments on lineage-based division – small may be better  Consider ways to build nonpartisan government control of revenue sources  Build on the strengths of local communities and mobilize Somalia’s human resources Economic Development: pointers Somalia Conflict Analysis

 Support economic activities that unite not divide – sub-sectors have different characteristics  Prioritize the economic backbone of society, but consider ways to strengthen economic diversification  Help develop systems for fair natural resource management  Support employment among young men, and reintegrate militiamen into mainstream economic activities Economic Development: pointers Somalia Conflict Analysis

 Monitor indicators of change – escalation/de- escalation of conflict  Assess potential impact of aid interventions on the conflict situation Conflict Monitoring Somalia Conflict Analysis