Idaho Weather, Climate and Water Supply Outlook IDWR Briefing, March 10 th 2011 Jay Breidenbach, NOAA National Weather Service National Snow Movies Recent.

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Presentation transcript:

Idaho Weather, Climate and Water Supply Outlook IDWR Briefing, March 10 th 2011 Jay Breidenbach, NOAA National Weather Service National Snow Movies Recent Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Forecast for next 10 days – continuation of stormy pattern La-Nina Status Three Month Climate Outlook Water Supply Numbers and Idaho Spring Flood Outlook

Snow Water Equivalent February 8 th, 2011

Snow Water Equivalent March 11 th, 2011

After the January Thaw

Temperature and Precipitation at Boise

Perceptible Water Image

Thursday - March 11th IR Satellite Imagery / 500 mb heights

Thursday, March 10 th (Morning) 500 mb heights / model precipitation

Thursday, March 10 th (Noon) 500 mb heights / model precipitation

Thursday, March 10 th (evening)

Saturday, March 11th

Sunday, March 12th

Sunday, March 13th

Monday, March 14th

Tuesday, March 15th

Wednesday, March 16th

Thursday, March 17th

Total Precipitation Ending Thursday, March 17 th

Mature La-Nina Beginning to Weaken

Cross Section Along Equator

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 6 March 2011 Most CFS ensemble forecasts predict the a return to near normal sea-surface conditions by mid-summer 2011.

Temperature Precipitation U. S. Seasonal Outlooks March 2011

Temperature Precipitation U. S. Seasonal Outlooks March - May 2011

Near Normal Water Supply Expected in Most Areas of Idaho in 2011

Average Spring Flood Threat in Most Areas of Idaho in 2011 Exceptions: Large snow pack and Forecast River Volumes have slightly elevated flood risk in: -Portions of Upper Snake River Basin -Bear River Basin

Significant Rises expected on Lower Elevation Streams Weiser River

Malheur River

Owyhee River

Payette River at Lowman

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