Germany and Russia in a Changing World Deutsches Haus New York Klaus Segbers, FUB/ CU 20. November 2007

Content 1New Context of IR 2Germany 3Russia 4(Joint) Issues

1.1 The New Anarchy We do live in volatile times. Global politics and events are disorderly, chaotic, hard to comprehend. And hard to predict. Why is that so?

1.2 New Global Context There is a substantially new, changing global landscape: no East-West Conflict, no Bipolarity, globalization, erosion of the Westphalian system. This explains the impression of disorder. And it constitutes a challenge for all of us, particularly for experts and decision makers.

1.3 Globalization G. is an objective process, rather than a program. It modifies the meaning of borders. It makes governments weaker. It produces loss of control. It generates new actors and nodes, flows.

1.4 Dimensions of IR/ GP Financial markets: Flows of capital between state- and non-state actors. Economy: new forms of transport, flows of goods, services, and people. Communication: Flows of content (information and entertainment). (Un)security: Conflicts about resources, culture and identities. Attempts to regulate these flows and trends... U.N., Doha, post-Kyoto (Bali), Schengen,...

1.6 Actors in Global Politics Many more than ever before. Related to state, market, and society. Governments, IO’s, INGO’s, TNC’s, networks, individuals, media,... Problems for defining”national interests”.

1.7 Balance sheet Less certainties More risks Simulation of constant environment Actors avoiding complexities Short-term horizons/ ad-hocism in decision- making

2.1 Germany: Structural factors Difficult to make statements for „Germany“. Role of trade >>> stability Role of energy imports >>> stability Meaning of „civilian power“ >>> institutions Role of historical contingencies for current politics >>> integration, institutions

2.2 Germany: Issues Europe (procedures/ institutions) Europe (stability, possibly further enlargement later) Europe (trade, currency, migration,...) Modified role in IR/ UN sec-council Peace-keeping, trade, climate as issues

3.1 Russia: Structural factors Post-Soviet traumata and worries Transformation incl. nation building Abundant energy resources Cultural patchwork Uncertain southern dimension

3.2 Russia: Issues Global integration Domestic stability: regional, social and cultural cleavages, avoiding fragmentation Continuing institutional changes Finding a role in/ with Europe

4Goals and issues Strengthen EU Strengthen inter-, transnational institutions (climate, trade, security, migration,...) Manage U.S. decline Manage China rise Keep secularism by all means

the end...