Conceptual Design of an Enhanced Multipurpose Aerometric Monitoring Network in Central California NOV. 15, 2002 AWMA SYMPOSIUM ON AIR QUALITY MEASUREMENT METHODS & TECHNOLOGY James Sweet Evan Shipp Saffet TanrikuluRobin DeMandel Steve Ziman

2 Purpose and structure Rationale for design Goals of the enhanced network Objectives Design criteria and parameters Central California conceptual network design Prior research Presentation of Conceptual Design of an Enhanced Multipurpose Aerometric Monitoring Network in Central California

3 Purpose: The conceptual design was prepared for presentation to the member organizations and agencies that plan and oversee our field studies to identify monitoring network modifications that would reduce reliance on major field study results Disclaimer: The conceptual design does not represent an active project or commitment by the members

4 Structure and Mission Technical Committee identifies potential air quality research and modeling projects Policy Committee selects projects for funding as Central California Air Quality Studies and approves project design Joint Powers Agency – San Joaquin Valleywide Air Pollution Study Agency administers public and private funding

5 Policy & Technical Representatives Government: –Federal EPA, DOD, USDA, NOAA –State ARB, CEC –Local SJVUAPCD, BAAQMD, SMAQMD Private Sector: Oil, Agriculture, Utilities Government and industry consensus approach partnership to conduct air quality research that provides sound scientific basis for decision making in the regulatory process

6 Rationale for Design Compliance oriented network is not designed for modeling input and model evaluation needs Advantages of permanent network enhancement as alternative to major field studies Daily forecasting and annual analysis would be improved by network enhancement Provide model episode representativeness for episodes not captured in studies Provide more emphasis for precursor species measurements to address ozone, PM and air toxics strategy integration

7 Goals of Enhanced Network Increase confidence and quality of trend assessments, modeling and planning Provide sufficient air quality and meteorology characterization data to support –Improved air quality data analysis –Improved daily air quality forecasting and smoke management decision making –Improved synoptic modeling –Modeling capability for all ozone episodes –Modeling of entire ozone season Integrate assessment and planning for precursors common to ozone, PM, and air toxics

8 Objectives Annually update trend assessment for criteria pollutants and precursors for evaluation of progress, provide multi-year data as opposed to field programs to identify signal from noise and quantify signal Annually assess alternative progress metrics such as population and area exposure Improve precision of air quality forecasting for health advisories, smoke management decisions for burn days and synoptic scale meteorological modeling

9 Objectives (continued) Update reconciliation of air quality to emissions Evaluate expected to observed correlation of emissions reductions to air quality to evaluate implementation effectiveness of plan strategy Model episodes that occur after the end of major field programs with comparable accuracy Provide data to model an entire ozone season to look for optimal strategy Assess pollutant transport in a variety of meteorological situations, do more than assess peak episodes

10 Design Criteria Design to meet scientific, technical and regulatory needs for central California for criteria and non-criteria pollutants Define sites and measurements to support daily forecasting, capture the meteorological initial conditions and pattern for every episode, enhance precursor and criteria trend analysis and improve air quality modeling for episodes not captured by major field studies Detect temporal and spatial precursor limitations that vary for different episodes

11 Include sufficient pollutant chemistry characterization measurements to allow comparison of expected changes in precursor speciation and concentration attributable to emissions reduction strategies Measure hydrocarbons at essential locations to provide indications of ozone precursor reactivity that may produce subtle effects on ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation Collect data to provide more specificity for source-receptor relationship identification of sources that contribute to peak concentrations Design Criteria (continued)

12 Sea breeze On/offshore and coastal flows Marine fog & stratus Marine air intrusion Mixing depth/ Inversion strength Convergence zones Upslope/ downslope flows Bifurcation of delta flow Up/down valley flows Eddies and Jets Complex terrain flows and velocities via passes Synoptic deformation, subsidence Meteorology Parameters to Capture

13 Characterize spatial and temporal patterns of ozone and precursors Measure at locations with linkage to sites used to create the meteorological field, link precursor and transport observations to ground truth modeling results Measure VOC species to observe atmospheric chemistry changes in response to emissions reduction implementation Measure with high accuracy, sensitivity & reduced artifact interference Air Quality Design Parameters

14 Existing Network 185 sites 130 O 3 76 NOx 11 VOC (PAM) 8 Upper air

15 Conceptual Network Design 39 NO y 11 at PAM sites 28 in three regions

16 Conceptual Network Design 37 VOC 11 existing PAM sites 14 Proposed 12 Possible

17 Conceptual Network Design 22 Upper Air 8 Existing 14 in three regions

18 Prior Research Extensive monitoring and modeling programs in Central California –late80s: SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OZONE STUDY –1990s: SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AIR QUALITY STUDY CALIFORNIA REGIONAL PM AIR QUALITY STUDY –2000+: CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OZONE STUDY Designed to support data analysis modeling –PAST EXPERIENCE USED TO GUIDE NEXT PROGRAM –MONITORING NETWORK ENHANCED BY EACH PROGRAM –COMBINED ENHANCED DAILY MONITORING AND FORECASTING WITH INTENSIVE OPERATING PERIOD (IOP) ADDITIONAL MEASUREMENTS FOR FORECASTED EPISODES

19 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study California Regional PM Air Quality Study Central California Ozone Study A Continuum of Studies Southern San Joaquin Valley Ozone Study Total cost $50 million

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22 Questions?