1. AQI Trends in the San Joaquin Valley Evan M. Shipp Shipp Air Quality Consulting

2. SJV Trends Background Many Days Greater Than 100 AQI and Some Greater than 200 AQI CARB Air Quality Indicators SJVAPCD Mid-course Review SJV Study Agency Trend Analysis Some Trend Indicators Show Little Progress Historical Selective Use of Air Quality Indicators

3. Some SJV Sites Show Little Recent Progress

4. AQI Trends Objectives Summarize overall decadal (2000-2009) air quality index trends Consider meteorology Corroborate (or not) pollutant specific historical trends analysis Qualitative health effects inferences Emission trend inference

5. Bakersfield and Fresno Number of Days Unhealthful for Sensitive Groups

6. Methods Bakersfield Fresno.-Clovis Visalia Stockton Merced Modesto Raw AQI from EPA Data Explorer Website (incomplete for 2010) 7 Monitoring Sites PM2.5 and Ozone AQI Combined Meteorologically Adjusted and Unadjusted Average and Worst Case Statistics Analyzed for Categorical Changes in AQI

7. Meteorological Adjustment of AQI Daily Meteorological Adjustment of AQI Two Season AQI to Meteorology Correlation Winter-Spring (WS), Summer-Fall (SF) Non-linear Correlation Parameters Adjusted to Seasonal Average Meteorology

8. SJV AQI Correlation to Meteorological Parameters Summer and Fall (April- October) is 850 mb temperature Winter and Spring (November-March) is 850mb-minimum temperature Correlation pattern appears to be second order Consistent with other CA analyses

9. Daily Meteorological Adjustment AQI Adjusted Daily for Average Meteorological Conditions AQI adj = AQI measured + (regression prediction AQI with “average weather” – regression prediction AQI with observed weather) Reduces daily AQI variability and may enhance emissions signal in data

10. Trends and Exception Events Wildland fire (Rx burns, wildfire use, wildfire) in many years Large fires 2000, 2003 and 2008 produced ozone precursor emissions that are a significant part of the entire inventory Inconsistent exclusion of data effected by wildfire and other exceptional events may skew trends All AQI data in EPA dataset used for this analysis

11. Wildland Fire Episodes Frequently Effect Air Quality in SJV June 28, 2008

12. Daily AQI With Meteorology Adjustment

13. Summary of Results

14. SJV Trend in Top Ten 10 AQI

15. Bakersfield Average AQI Trend

16. Bakersfield AQI Top 10 Trend

17. Merced Top Ten AQI Trend

18. What Have You Done for Us Lately?

19. Does the Change in SJV AQI Data Variability Indicate Source Reductions?

20. AQI Standard Deviation Trend Trend in Standard Deviation May Imply that Local Sources Have Been Controlled (e.g. – Residential Wood Combustion)

21. Fresno AQI Standard Deviation Trend

22. Bakersfield AQI Standard Deviation Trend

23. Conclusions Improvement in AQI over last decade Highest and average AQI decreasing Meteorological adjustment accelerates trend toward better air quality Declining standard deviation of AQI indicates control of near field sources Analysis corroborates historical analyses Consistent exceptional events exclusions

25. Selected References Evan M. Shipp, Air Quality Index Trends in the San Joaquin Valley, December 2010 Shawn Ferreria and Evan Shipp, Historical Meteorological Analysis in Support of the 2003 San Joaquin Valley PM10 State Implementation Plan - Final Report, January 2003 L.C. Larsen, R.A. Bradley, and G.L. Honcoop, A New Method of Characterizing the Variability of Air Quality-Related Indicators, Transactions of the AWMA Specialty Conference on Tropospheric Ozone, Los Angeles, CA, 1990. Minitab Inc. (2007), Meet Minitab 15 San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District, Draft 2010 Ozone Mid- Course Review, May 2010 Evan M. Shipp, Forecasting of High PM10 Days in Northern San Luis Obispo County, Applicable to Implementing Residential Wood Combustion Controls, Proceedings of Air Waste Management Association 89th Annual Meeting, 1996 USEPA, A Guide To Air Quality and Your Health, www.epa.gov/airnow

26. Thanks Funding –International Sustainable Systems Research Center (ISSRC) –Merced/Mariposa County Asthma Coalition (MMCAC) Corroborators o Mary-Michal Rawling, MMCAC o Nicole Davis, ISSRC