1. 1 CCOS Update November 3, 2006 PC Meeting Project Status –Completed Projects Results –On-Going Projects Status Plan for CCOS Final Phase –Guiding Principles –Available Funds –Timeline –Proposed Project Concepts

2. 2 Project Status (Category III and New) Completed 5 projects 13 Projects are on-going –Initiated 6 projects in 2005/2006 –Completed 1 st phase of 4 projects Project documentation available on CCOS web page –Completed projects (public access) –On-going projects (PC/TC access)

3. 3 Completed Projects Results Final Field Data Validation –Determined 98% of data in CCOS database is valid (III-32) Emission Inventory Development –Created unified transportation network now used in generating modeling inventories (III-3)

4. 4 Completed Projects Results (cont.) Modeling Development and Evaluation –Compared three U.S. EPA recommended models leading to use of CAMx in 2007 SIP (III-5) –Tested methodology for seasonal modeling using CMAQ (III-13a); now implementing in CCOS domain (III-13b); methodology may be used in 8-h ozone attainment demonstrations for mid-term SIP –Compared MM5 meteorology fields with observations (III-23); scientific findings may assist NOAA in improving meteorology models

5. 5 Completed Projects Results (cont.) Modeling Development and Evaluation (cont.) –Improved representation of photolysis processes in CAMx (III-7) –Improved speed of chemistry solver by 10 fold; plan to implement into CMAQ (III-30) –Preliminary modeling of September 2000 episode was unsuccessful (III-24); now investigating possible deficiencies in meteorology model (III-12)

6. 6 Completed Projects Results (cont.) Advanced Data Analysis –Documented limitations to CMB source apportionment method (III-7), leading to use of alternative (PMF) in on- going project to compare ambient measurements to emission representations for modeling (III-1) –Developed statistical cluster analysis method (III-7); now using in project to analyze how meteorological and photochemical regimes affected ozone levels during 1996-2005 (N-1)

7. 7 On-Going Projects Status Will provide update on and possibly deliver preliminary products by end of 2006 Emission Inventory Evaluation –Recommendations for improvements to spatial and temporal representations of modeling emission estimates (III-33, STI) –Recommendations for improvements based on comparison of ambient measurements to modeling emission estimates during Summer of 2000 (III-1,STI)

8. 8 On-Going Projects Status (cont.) Modeling Development and Evaluation –Improved mass conservation module in air quality models (III-11, GaTech) –Further evaluation of meteorological model performance (III-23, T&BS) –Meteorological modeling results and documentation of runs for CCOS episodes (III-25, NOAA)

9. 9 On-Going Projects Status (cont.) Advanced Data Analysis –Analysis of relationships between changes in ambient ozone and precursor concentrations and changes in VOC and NOx emissions from 1990 to 2004 (III-9, Blanchard) –Statistical analysis of data from 1996 to 2005 to identify different meteorological regimes favorable to high ozone concentrations (N-1, UCD)

10. 10 Plan for CCOS Final Phase

11. 11 Guiding Principles Consider Funds – Available in short term (expected by March 2007) – Possibly available in longer term Project Objectives –Focus on wrapping up CCOS technical work Review existing Category III and new project concepts –Provide products that may be used for SIP mid-term evaluation –Prepare summary documents and scientific publications

12. 12 Available Funds SourceAmount (x 1000) Expected Availability Financial Report minus Earmarked Funds$1,360Today 2005 Fund Raising U.S EPA (FY2006)$370 January 2007 Contracts to be closed$71March 2007 Subtotal of Funds Available in Short Term$1,801 2006 Fund Raising Expected U.S. EPA (FY2007) Expected NOAA (FY2007) $375 $150 December 2007 Subtotal of Funds Possibly Available in Longer Term $525

13. 13 Timeline (Short Term Funds) Release RFPsProposals to SA Contracts End Mid-Course SIP Revisions Final Phase Plan to PC Proposals to PC Contracts in Place Begin Mid-Course SIP Review Nov 2006 Jan 2007 Mar 2007 Apr 2007 Jul 2007 Dec 2008 Jan 20092011

14. 14 Proposed Project Concepts (Short Term Funds) Proposed ProjectEstimated Funding (x1000) Link Data Analysis and Modeling Efforts (III-10)$100 Refine Conceptual Model (III-19)$100 Integrate CCOS and CRPAQS Findings (III-20)$80 Prepare and Publish CCOS Summary Document, Scientific Papers, Final Synthesis Document and hold CCOS Conference (III-21) $110 Integration and Synthesis – $390,000

15. 15 Proposed Project Concepts (cont.) (Short Term Funds) Emission Inventory Development – $325,000 Proposed ProjectEstimated Funding (x1000) Develop factors to represent seasonal trucking in base year and future CCOS modeling inventories (N3) $325 Improve the temporal and spatial distribution of on-road motor vehicle emissions on weekend days (N9)

16. 16 Proposed Project Concepts (cont.) (Short Term Funds) Model Development and Evaluation – $721,000 Proposed ProjectEstimated Funding (x1000) Augment on-going contract to improve mass conservation module (III-11) $77 Continue NOAA program (N7) to - maintain wind profilers and analyze data (FY07, FY08, FY09) - support continuing seasonal modeling $384 $150 Reinvestigate September 2000 episode (N12)$80 Provide web access of modeling results$30

17. 17 Proposed Project Concepts (cont.) (Short Term Funds) Corroborative Data Analysis – $165,000 Proposed ProjectEstimated Funding (x1000) Technical review and application of corroborative analyses for use in eight hour ozone SIPs (III-8 Part 1) $35 Review, develop, and evaluate improved approaches for corroborative analyses (III-8 Part 2) $135

18. 18 Summary of Short Term Proposal Proposed Project CategoryEstimated Funding (x1000) Integration and Synthesis$390 Emission Inventory Development$325 Model Development and Evaluation$721 Corroborative Analysis$165 Contingency Fund for Additional Work on On- going Projects $200 TOTAL$1,801

19. 19 Longer Term Proposal (With Potential Funds From Current Fund Raising) The Technical Committee will propose new projects based on results of projects in short term plan