Electricity in Thailand: current arrangements, impacts, alternatives 27 June, 2007 ERI Chom Greacen Chris Greacen

Will our electricity future look like this?

…or this?

Natural gas Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world) Cleaner than other fossil fuels (especially SO x ) but still big CO 2 emissions Limited domestic supply. Human rights issues in pipeline from Burma (Yadana) LNG terminal

Natural gas Severe price volatility – linked to crude oil price. Now around $0.05 to $0.07 / kWh

Coal Used to make 14% of Thailand’s electricity History of respiratory illnesses from coal smoke – Mae Mot, Lampang Acid rain Worst fuel for global warming Limited domestic supply Cheaper (now) than natural gas ($0.04 to $0.06/kWh) Strong environmental opposition

Big hydro Used to make 6% of Thailand’s electricity Consensus: no more big dams will be built in Thailand –Limited sites left in Thailand –Strong environmental opposition Environmental issues –Inundation –Fish killed –Global warming –Changes in temperature / sediment loading / flow regime Can be cheap –If reasonably close to load centers

Thailand seen from altitude of 450 kilometers Burma Sri Nakharin dam reservoir Khao Laem dam reservoir

Thailand seen from 54 kilometers Sri Nakharin dam reservoir

Khao Laem dam resettlement "We had to spend all of our compensation for living, and it wasn't enough, actually. The condition of the land here and my previous land is very different...I miss the fertile resources. Our ancestors did rice farming for ages. But now I cannot grow rice and have to buy it, which is also very expensive... If I could ask the officials for one thing, I would like to ask, 'Please can I return to where I was?'" –Panya Kwanprasertwaree, a Karen elder who was forced to move because of the dam

Nuclear In 2007 PDP starting year 2020 Cost uncertain –$0.02 to $0.12/kWh Environment & security issues –Generates materials that can be used to make weapons –Thailand has spotty nuclear safety record already –Waste dangerous for 250,000 years.

Thai Electricity demand is projected to grow

What should be done to make sure that there is enough electricity? Natural gas interests say: –“Use more gas!” –“It’s clean(er).” Coal interests say: –“Use more coal” for fuel diversity –“Clean” coal –“It’s cheaper” Hydropower interests say: –“New dams in Lao and Burma!” –Asian Development Bank GMS grid –“Big hydro for poverty reduction!” –“It’s cheap” Nuclear advocates say: –It’s cheap! (contested) –No green house gases! Industry response…

What should be done to make sure that there is enough electricity? ADB/World Bank response… ADB’s Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnect-ion in the GMS

Civil society response… 1.Fix governance problems Transparency, accountability, public participation Remove conflict of interest Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority 2.More realistic demand projections 3.Consider a full range of alternatives in power development plan including: Energy savings Renewable energy Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

Fix governance problems: Transparency, accountability, public participation

Fix governance problems: Remove conflict of interest Example: transmission shouldn’t be controlled by the same business that owns generation.

Fix governance problems: regulatory authority Independent –Able to think for itself Competent in working for public interest –Public wants reliable, affordable energy without environmental impacts Empowered –Has authority to enforce the rules

13 out of 14 official base case forecasts predicted demand that failed to materialize

Demand growth has been close to linear over the past 20 years…

… but “official forecasts” assume exponential growth

Power Development Plan (Planned installed capacity = peak demand + 15% reserve)

Fuel mix in power generation GWh Import Nuke RE Gas Coal Lignite Hydro

Options that need to be included

Saving energy

Options that need to be included Saving energy Renewable energy

Options that need to be included Saving energy Renewable energy Combined heat and power (CHP)

Customer Efficiency Central Generation Centralized utility (EGAT) Decentralized utility (A better way) Remote Loads Wind PV Genset Fuel Cell Battery Customers Central Generation 30

Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it… Source: The World Bank (1993) Demand Side Management (saving electricity)

Saving Energy : big potential in Thailand 2000 to 3000 MW: “Achievable and cost effective Demand Side Management (DSM)” in 1991 (Utility study)

Saving energy in the house: Using overhangs, trees to keep house cool ที่มา : Australian Greenhouse Office (2003) South

Saving Energy in a typical pumping system

Source: Presentation by Ministry of Energy at Energy Strategy Workshop chaired by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 28 August 2003

Rice husk fired power plant 9.8 MW Roi Et province Subsidy 0.3 baht/kWh

Uses waste water from cassava to make methane Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity 3 x 1 MW gas generators Subsidy 0.3 baht/kWh Korat Waste to Energy - biogas

Biogas from Pig Farms Reduces air and water pollution Produces fertilizer Produces electricity 8 x 70 kW generator Ratchaburi Subsidy: 0.3 baht/kwh

Community micro-hydro Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW Community cooperative Subsidy 0.4 to 0.8 baht/kWh

Wind energy Power Potential “1,600 MW” Wind speeds still not well characterized Projects in planning phase 5 to 30 MW in southern gulf provinces Subsidy 2.5 baht/kWh

Subsidy 8 baht/kWh 68 projects on-line generating >1 MW Several big projects planned > 7 MW additional Grid-Connected Solar Electricity Tesco Lotus 460 kW grid- connected PV Rama I, Bangkok 8 kW grid- connected Honda Automobile Co., Bangkok

Off-grid handouts 230,000 solar home systems >900 solar battery charging stations >60 community micro-hydropower systems

Renewable energy accounts for very little of Thailands’ total electricity production Source: (EPPO) 2007

Combined Heat and Power (CHP)… also called “cogeneration”

CHP potential in Thailand –8610 MW cogen installed as of 2001 –At least 3,000 MW of additional cogen had applied and have not been accepted.

Summary of alternatives Energy saving 2000 to 3000 MW Renewables > 3000 MW Cogeneration > 3000 MW Total peak load in Thailand (2007): around 22,600 MW

Civil society response… 1.Fix governance problems Transparency, accountability, public participation Remove conflict of interest Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority 2.More realistic demand projections 3.Consider a full range of alternatives in power development plan including: Energy savings Renewable energy Combined Heat and Power

Let’s work together… Are you interested in looking at clean energy options in your country? Are you motivated, self-reliant, willing to ask tough questions? Mekong Energy and Climate Network (MECN) forming 2008…

Your comments and questions are welcome! Palang Thai Tel

Cost of renewable energy is sometimes higher than conventional Production cost (baht/kWh) gas coalSmall hydro biomasssolarwindEnergy efficiency