Janusz Cofala and Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Application of GAINS model for integrated assessment of air pollution in Europe and in non-European EECCA countries

Policy applications of RAINS/GAINS in Europe GAINS/RAINS for air pollution Protocols to the LRTAP Convention: -2 nd S Protocol, Gothenburg Protocol and its revision Support to EU policies: -CAFE Programme and Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP) -National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive and its revision -Air pollution consequences of updated EU energy scenarios GAINS for climate policy analysis -Non-CO2 cost curves for Climate and Energy Package (C&E) -Air pollution effects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenarios -Co-benefits on air pollution for C&E Package

Targets from the EU Thematic Strategy on AP

Revision of the NEC Directive Targets to be achieved in 2020 based on –C&E energy package scenario (PRIMES) –National projections (or CAPRI results) for agriculture Ceilings determined with GAINS optimization routine –Starting point: “Current policies” emission control legislation

Revision of the NEC Directive – emissions reduction

Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months 2020 (4.2 months) 2000 (8 months)

Forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, % 2020 (3% of total) 2000 (19 % of total)

GAINS coverage Emissions and costs modules: –All larger countries included –Russia: four regions for the European part, for Asian part of Russia available by oblast –Calculations can be done on-line Optimization and impact modules implemented for Europe, China and India GHG mitigation efforts calculator available for all Annex I countries

Inclusion of EECCA countries Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova –(some) contacts with national experts Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic. –No contacts with national teams Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan aggregated to “Other FSU Asia” –No contacts with national teams

Emission scenarios for EECCA countries Economic activities Energy –National scenarios supplied by experts from Russia (2002) and Ukraine (2004) –Other countries IEA energy statistics, projections based on scaling down of SRES B2 scenario Agriculture –FAO statistics and projections

Emission scenarios for EECCA countries Control measures Baseline: controls only for PM from stationary sources “With measures” scenario: FGD for new and retrofit of 50% of old power plants in 2020 Low sulphur fuels: 1% heavy fuel oil, 0.1% light fuel oil, 0.05% diesel Industrial processes: -50% SO2, -40% NOx, PM as current standards for new Member States Primary NOx measures for boilers Euro 4/IV for new vehicles Improved electrostatic precipitators for large boilers Maximum reductions included in RAINS (MRR) All technical end-of-pipe controls No pre-mature scrapping of existing installations Does not include structural and behavioural changes

EECCA - emissions of air pollutants and CO2 in 2000 and 2020

EECCA - emissions of SO2 in 2020 by country relative to 2000

EECCA - emissions of NOx in 2020 by country relative to 2000

EECCA - emissions of PM2.5 in 2020 by country relative to 2000

Loss in statistical life expectancy due to anthropogenic PM2.5 Baseline projection 2020 With measures scenario 2020

Data needs for further improvement Macroeconomic projections Projections of emission generating activities: –Energy –Transport –Agricultural projections (livestock numbers) –Activities of heavy industries –Growth of NMVOC generating sectors Fuel quality, country-specific emission and cost factors ‘Current legislation’ penetration of control technologies Also (if possible) Potentials for switching to energy efficient and low CO2 technologies

Conclusions GAINS has been used in many policy-relevant studies at the CLRTAP and EU level Depending on the purpose, different model features are applied Preliminary databases and assessment available also for EECCA countries Data and results can be viewed via the internet Tutorial is available also in Russian Important updates of database for EECCA countries needed Can be done only in close collaboration national experts PLEASE HELP!!! Пожалуйста помогите!!!

More information: Access to the on-line model: