VISTAS Emissions Inventory Overview Nov 4, 2003

VISTAS is evaluating visibility and sources of fine particulate mass in the Southeastern US View NE from Appalachian Trail Mt. Cammerer, Great Smoky Mtns.

VISTAS - Regional Haze Timeline Regional Haze Rule PM 2.5 Designation Feb/Dec 2004 PM 2.5 & Haze SIPs Dec 2007 Air Quality Monitoring Emissions Inventory Atmospheric Modeling VISTAS Planning States Develop Haze SIPs Strategy Design Policy Interpretation Baseline and natural conditions BART Sources Reasonable Progress Goals Base year and future year strategies Base year and future year air quality

Air Quality Emissions Meteorology Air Quality Responses to Emission Controls Policy Interpretation VISTAS Science Supports Regulatory Decisions anthropogenic biogenic topography gases particles deposition visibility Atmospheric Model: Chemistry Transport Deposition

2001 Annual Average Light Extinction From VIEWS website Mm -1

Extinction (Mm-1) Coarse Soil Organics EC NH 3 NO 3 (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 Rayleigh Dolly Sods, WV Shenandoah, VA James Rvier Face, VA Mammoth Cave, KY Sipsey, AL Great Smoky Mtns, TN Linville Gorge, NC Swan Quarter, NC Cape Romain, SC Okefenokee, GA Chassahowitzka, FL Everglades, FL Shining Rock, NC Light Extinction on 20% Haziest Days - IMPROVE

Objective: provide inventories for modeling PM 2.5 and regional haze State and local agencies review and revise –2002 – 1 st draft delivered Aug 03; 2 nd draft due Dec 03 –2018 – 1 st draft due Mar 04, 2 nd draft due Sept 04 Improve inventories –NH 3,fire, primary carbon PM 2.5 –Hourly, daily, seasonal –Spatial allocation VISTAS Emissions Inventory

VISTAS 2002 Inventory Responsibilities MACTEC, Inc.: –point and area sources E. H. Pechan & Assoc., Inc.: –mobile onroad and non-road engines State and local agencies: –provide latest existing inventory (99, 00, 01, or 02) –provide input for inventory improvements –review methods, products VISTAS Participants: review methods, products

VISTAS 2002 Inventory Approach Update NEI 1999 with state and local data –fill missing data (e.g. area & non-road NH 3, PM 2.5 ) Grow inventories to 2002: –state/local inventory, activity data –Bureau of Census –Economic Growth Analysis System QA/QC and inventory review throughout project –Comprehensive Emissions Reporting Requirements –Data Exchange Protocol Temporal and spatial allocation for modeling

VISTAS State Emissions Inventory Million tons/year Nonroad On-Road Area Industry SO2NOxVOCPM10PM2.5NH3 Utility Based on state/local inventory data or 1999 NEI v2, grown to 2002

VISTAS 10-State Emissions Inventory – 1999 NEI v2 vs VISTAS SO NOx VOC 99 PM NH Million tons/year 02 Nonroad On-Road Area Industry Utility

Comparison of NEI and VISTAS Inventories Utility SO , , , ,000 ALFLGAKYMSNCSCTNVAWV 1999 NEI v2VISTAS 2002 tons/year

Comparison of NEI and VISTAS Inventories Utility NOx 0 50, , , , , , ,000 ALFLGAKYMSNCSCTNVAWV 1999 NEI v2VISTAS 2002 tons/year

Wildfire PM 2.5 Emissions for 8 VISTAS States* SMOKE model v2 and 2002 Calculated 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 SMOKE NEI v22002 calculated PM2.5 (Tons per year) *AL, GA, KY, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV; FL and MS did not submit wildfire data Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Comparison of NEI and VISTAS Inventories Point Source Ammonia 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 ALFLGAKYMSNCSCTNVAWV 1999 NEI v2VISTAS 2002 Tons per year

Fertilizer NH 3 Emissions 2002 CMU model vs 1999 NEI v2 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 ALFLGAKYMSNCSCTNVAWV 2002 CMU1999 NEI v2 Tons per year

Livestock NH 3 Emissions 2002 CMU model vs NEI v2 0 40,000 80, , ,000 ALFLGAKYMSNCSCTNVAWV Tons per year 2002 CMU1999 NEI v2

VISTAS 36-km and 12-km CMAQ Modeling Domains

125,000 25,000 SO 2 Point Sources >5,000 Tons per year 1999 National Emissions Inventory v 2 250,000 Annual SO 2 emissions

VISTAS Emissions Modeling (SMOKE into CMAQ) Modeled NO emissions from mobile sector – 12 km domain ENVIRON / U California, Riverside / Alpine Geophysics

Aug 2003: Emissions Inventory Base 2002 Dec 2003: Revised Em Inv Base 2002 Jan 2004: Modeling Protocol Mar 2004: Draft Em Inv 2018 July 2004: Revised State Em Inv Base 2002 Sept 2004: Annual Base Year Model Runs Dec 2004: Annual Run 2018 Apr 2004: DDM in CMAQ Oct 2004: Sensitivity Runs episodes Jan 2004: Met, Em, AQ model testing 3 episodes Sept 2004: Revised Em Inv 2018 Oct-Dec 2004: Control Strategy Inventories Jan 2005: Sensitivity Runs 2018 episodes Jan-Jun 2005: Control Strategy Runs 2018 Mar 2004: CART:select sensitivity episodes July-Dec 2005: Observations Conclusions Recommendations After Jun 2005 Model Runs: e.g. Power Plant Turnover Before Jun 2005 Other Inventory: e.g. Power Plant Turnover Meteorological, Emissions, and Air Quality Modeling Deliverables State Regulatory Activities Jan-Mar 2004 Define BART sources Optional June 2004 Identify BART controls Draft 10/31/03 EPA- approved Modeling Protocol