1. Overview of WRAP Emissions Projections
RPO Emissions Discussion Group Meeting
April 15, 2005

2. Presentation Topics
Background
Overview
Point/Area
Mobile

3. Evaluation of 2018 WRAP Region Haze Control Strategies
June through September 2005
2018 Base Case Definition
·      Known control programs,
i.e., what emissions will be
in 2018 if no additional
controls are adopted
·      Projected from 2002
emissions ( in the
case of fire emissions)
2018 Base Case Control Programs 
·      Federal on-road and non-road mobile emissions
·      §309 SIPs (5-state SO2 Annex)
· =  Controllable fire emissions (use baseline for 2018)
·      Point and area sources:
1)      Statutes and rules “on the books” as of 12/2004 to be
implemented before 2018
2)      Sources to be operational before 2018 (permitted and
under construction as of 12/2004)
3)      Includes quantified SIP measures, NEAPs, EACs,
MACT, etc.
4)      Accounts for economic and demographic factors
October 2005 through March 2006
2018 Regional Control Options
·                  California PM2.5 and ozone SIP measures
·                  BART- individual eligible sources added up for regional analysis
·                  Point Source backstop cap and trade for BART + other point sources, options for:
· Regional NOx
· Regional SO2
· Nested §309 SO2
· Others?
·                  Fire - greater application of Emissions Reduction Techniques for fire emissions to meet
definition of regionally consistent enhanced smoke management programs – sensitivity
evaluation
·                  Dust - greater control levels and/or spatial extent of existing Dust Control programs –
sensitivity evaluation
Not for regional analysis
Ø            Area sources in general
Ø            Dust sources in general

4. WRAP Emission Inventory and Control Technology Technical Support
Task 1: Inventory Improvements and Projections
Focus on controls and % emission reduction
Oil and gas sources and emissions
Projections to 2018
Task 2: Control Technology Analyses
Task 3: Tribal/Reservation-Specific Inventories

5. Point/Area Inventory Improvements
Review, QA, improve 2002 baseline inventory for point and area sources to support control strategy development
Focus on completeness for facilities, source categories, pollutants, control information
Developing master database for data selection:
2002 EDMS for S/L/T
2002 and 1999 NEIs
1996 WRAP inventories
Examining CAMD data for EGUs

6. Projections to 2018
Make adjustments before growth to achieve 2018 baseline:
New/retired sources since 2002
New regulations since 2002
Agreements/enforcement actions since 2002
NEAPs, EACs
Atypical operations for point sources
Special cases:
California sources
CENRAP sources
Oil and gas
Atypical operations:
EGUs based on CAMD data, EGRID
Non-EGUs based on comparison of 2002 to 1999, info from S/L/Ts

7. 2002 Emissions 2018 Emissions Oil and Gas Emissions CA Emissions
2002 Point Sources
2002 Area Sources
All Others
Refineries
Smelters
EGUs
Other
Population-based
Livestock Sources
Energy-based
CENRAP Emissions
2018 Baseline Emissions
E-GRID/
Clean Air
Industry Information
EGAS
Agreements, Enforcements, New Rules, Regulations, NEAPs, EACs, etc.
DOE
Pop. Proj.
USDA
Revised 2002 Inventory
(excluding fire and windblown dust)
Retired Point Sources
2018 Point Sources
New Point Sources
Adjustment for 2002 Atypical Operation
QA Checks: Compare to permit limits; others TBD

8. Projecting Growth EGUs Non-EGU Points Area Sources
Generation demand from EIA
Capacity factors
New facilities
Known locations
Unknown locations
Non-EGU Points
EGAS by sector
Area Sources
DOE – Energy
USDA – Agricultural
Population – (e.g., consumer solvents, ind/com categories
EGAS – Other categories

9. Control Technology Analysis
Analyze control strategies for EGUs for all pollutants (NOx, SO2, PM, and VOC) including emission reductions and costs
Identify control strategies for top emitting non-EGU categories (e.g., oil and gas) for all pollutants
Develop 3-5 regional control scenarios to include all pollutants with emission reductions and costs estimated

10. Deliverables Improved 2002 Emission Inventory
Emission Projections to 2018 base case
3 to 5 Regional Control Scenarios
BART applied to BART-eligible sources as one scenario

11. Oil and Gas Emissions Projections
Issues
Anticipated expansion of oil and gas production, especially coal bed methane (CBM) production.
Varying regulation of the industry from state to state.
Nonlinear and rapid growth in some areas (e.g., Wyoming had 2,431 gas wells in 1989; 4,950 in 1999; and 18,154 in 2003 [EIA]).

12. Oil and Gas Emissions Projections
Information sources for projections
BLM Resource Management Plans for information on Reasonable Foreseeable Development.
State and Tribal oil and gas management contacts to obtain growth forecasts and controls anticipated
Filling in the gaps with Energy Information Administration (EIA) growth forecasts.

13. On-Road Mobile Source Projections
Emission factors from MOBILE6
Survey of state/local agencies for
Model input parameters
Future year controls
Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) forecasts

14. Non-Road Mobile Source Projections
Traditional non-road sources
Emission factors, federal controls, and growth factors from EPA NONROAD model
Modeling inputs from survey of state/local agencies
Aircraft – FAA landing and take-off (LTO) projections by aircraft type for each airport
Locomotive
Activity projections based on historic fuel consumption trends or state freight tonnage estimates
Emission factors adjusted for fleet turnover with effects of Federal standards
Commercial marine
Activity projections based on historic freight tonnage data