National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 28 August 2012

Outline Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status and how we got here – David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center Streamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGS Seasonal outlooks – David Zierden Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast Center Summary and Discussion

Current drought status from Drought Monitor

7 Day Precipitation Totals

Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Since Oct. 1

Tropical Storm Isaac

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: Previous brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega ( ) Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

Multivariate ENSO Index

ENSO Predictions

Near Surface Winds

1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 1 Month 3 Month

U.S. Drought Outlook

Tropical Outlook

Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Colorado State University (Klotzbach and Gray): 10 Named Storms (12 is normal) 4 Hurricanes (6.5 is normal) 2 Major Hurricanes (2 is normal) NOAA (updated Aug. 9, 2012) 50% chance of above normal season named storms 5-8 Hurricanes 2-3 Major Hurricanes Beryl

Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

Summary Rains have relieved drought in the FL panhandle and North GA, but most of the basin in AL and GA was classified as in severe to exceptional drought in the latest drought monitor Isaac has already brought significant rains to all parts of the ACF, but it is not enough to alleviate the drought Lake Lanier inflows have improved slightly, but streamflows and groundwater levels in the southern part of the basin are still critically low

Summary The 5-day rainfall forecast calls for 1 to 3 inches across the basin, which is much needed but probably not enough to alleviate the drought Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies and models indicate a good probability that El Niño will develop during the fall, but models forecast that the probability of El Niño decreases after the first of the year

Summary The 3-month outlook indicates that drought is likely to be alleviated The 1-month and 3-month streamflow forecasts have not changed much since the last briefing, with all forecasts for below normal streamflow levels though the 3-month forecasts include some probability of normal or above normal streamflows The biggest question is how much more rain TS/H Isaac will bring to the basin

References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvald, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, UF/SECC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring & forecasting Groundwater monitoring

Thank you! Next briefing ? 11 Sep 2012, 1:00 pm EST Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to: