Making Sense of the Jewish VoteMaking Sense of the Jewish Vote

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Historical Perspective: Jewish Vote in Presidential Elections Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972 Average Democratic vote share: 70 percent Year% of Jewish Vote DemocratRepublicanIndependent Source: Exit poll data

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote 2010 Mid-Term Election Results2010 Mid-Term Election Results % Democrat / % Republican Jewish66 / 31 Unmarried women61 / 38 Hispanics60 / 38 Voters under 30 years-old55 / 42 Catholics44 / 54 Protestants38 / 59 White Evangelicals19 / 77 Other (religion)74 / 24 None (religion)68 / 30 Source: 2010 exit polls, Democracy Corps election night poll, J Street election night poll 2

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Impact of the Jewish VoteImpact of the Jewish Vote Jewish Population % 2008 Vote Results (Obama/McCain) New Jersey7 57 / 42 Florida4 51 / 48 Pennsylvania4 55 / 44 New York3 63 / 36 Nevada3 55 / 43 Ohio2 52 / 47 3 Source: 2008 exit polls

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Impact of the Jewish Vote: Florida Case Study Florida Election Results Non-Jewish Voters (96% of FL voters) Jewish Voters (4% of FL voters) Total Vote Results Obama McCain How Jewish Vote Could Change Florida Result Non-Jewish Voters (96% of FL voters) Jewish Voters (4% of FL voters)“Result” Obama Republican Source: 2008 exit polls show Jews were 4 percent of FL vote; there was no Jewish result reported in FL, result cited here is the national Jewish result in the 2008 exit polls = =

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Understanding Recent Data and Trends: Jewish Party Identification 5 Source: Pew Research Center

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote 2012 Vote – Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney2012 Vote – Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney Source: Gallup

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote What Drives the Jewish Vote: Shared Values Gallup Poll: Ideology by Religion January 2010 % Liberal / % Conservative Jews43 / 20 Catholics19 / 39 Protestants/other Christians16 / 46 No religion/atheist/agnostic39 / 19 Gallup Poll: American Jews Oppose War February 2007 % War a mistake / % War not a mistake All Americans52 / 44 Jews77 / 21 Catholics53 / 46 Protestants48 / 49 Mormons27 / 72 No religion66 / 33 7

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote What Drives the Jewish Vote: Shared Values on Social / Economic Issues Driving the Debate 8 Public Religion Research Institute Poll March 2012 % of Jews who… Believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases93 Support gay and lesbian couples to marry legally81 Support increasing the tax rate on Americans earning more than $1 million a year 81 Believe economic system in this country unfairly favors the wealthy 73 Believe government should do more to reduce the gap between the rich and poor 64

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote What Drives the Jewish Vote: Intense Jewish Opposition toward Republicans We would like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling; zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Source: PRRI March 2012 poll ; Tea Party and Beck Results from J Street National Survey of American Jews, July

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote What Drives the Jewish Vote: Vote Priorities Below is a list of issues facing our country today. Please mark which two of these issues are the most important for you in deciding your vote for Congress in November. Top 2 Issues The economy62 Health care31 The deficit and govt spending18 Social Security and Medicare16 Taxes14 Terrorism and national security13 Education12 Israel7 The environment7 Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan6 Illegal immigration6 Energy4 10 Source: J Street National Election Night Survey of American Jews November 2010

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Broad Support for Active U.S. Involvement in the Arab-Israeli Conflict Do you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict? 11 Source: J Street National Survey of American Jews July 2011

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Public Disagreement Supported; Singling Out Israel Causes Major Decline Would you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict if it meant the United States publicly stating its disagreements…

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote 2010 IL9 Case Study: Criticism of Schakowsky Largely Unknown Have you read or heard about any criticism of Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky's positions on Israel? Source: J Street Survey of Registered Jewish Voters in IL9, October 2010

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote 2010 IL9 Case Study: Those who Hear Criticism Move Toward Schakowsky (If they have heard criticism of Rep. Schakowsky’s positions on Israel) Did this criticism make you more likely to support Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky, more likely to support her opponent Joel Pollak or make no difference? Source: J Street Survey of Registered Jewish Voters in IL9, October 2010

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Criticism Moves Small Numbers: Republicans Toward Pollak, Democrats and Independents Toward Schakowsky (If they have heard criticism of Rep. Schakowsky’s positions on Israel) Did this criticism make you more likely to support Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky, more likely to support her opponent Joel Pollak or make no difference? Source: J Street Survey of Registered Jewish Voters in IL9, October 2010

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Donors Contributed to Obama Over McCain 4-to-1Donors Contributed to Obama Over McCain 4-to-1 In the 2008 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of John McCain? 16 Source: J Street National Survey of American Jews July 2011

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote High and Comparable Level of Return Donors for Obama and Republicans Thinking about the 2012 Presidential election, will you make a financial contribution to… Barack Obama's campaign? (Among those who contributed to Obama’s campaign) a Republican candidate's campaign? (Among those who contributed to McCain’s campaign) 17

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