Office of Coast Survey Improving NOAA’s Capacity to Address Coastal Inundation Events Jesse C. Feyen, Ph.D. Storm Surge Roadmap Portfolio Manager Acting Deputy Chief, Coast Survey Development Laboratory National Ocean Service

Office of Coast Survey NOAA’s Storm Surge Roadmap Plan for improving models, products and services –Addresses tropical and extratropical cyclones Cross-NOAA team of experts –NWS, NOS, and OAR experts in meteorology, oceanography, observing, modeling, social science, … Bottom line: comprehensive NOAA strategy to holistically address needs and establish a coordinated response 2

Office of Coast Survey Storm Surge Roadmap Vision Highly accurate, relevant, and timely information CLEARLY COMMUNICATED which results in reductions in loss of life and ensures communities are resilient 3

Office of Coast Survey Roadmap Goals Customers Ask: Who will get flooded? How much? When? What will the impacts be? Roadmap Goals: 1.Accurately predict and assess storm water levels –T–Total Water Level (TWL) 2.Intuitively describe inundation as flooding above ground level 3.Communicate actionable information 4

Office of Coast Survey 5 National Water Level Observational Network (NWLON) –tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/nwlon.html Ingested by NWS into AWIPS and accessible via publicly available web services – Preliminary data delivered to NWS for post-storm reports within days of a tropical cyclone NOS Water Level Observations

Office of Coast Survey 6 Highlights real-time water level and meteorological observations at coastal locations affected by a tropical cyclone Updated 4 times daily, following NWS public advisories for tropical cyclones impacting the U.S. coast NOS Storm QuickLook tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook.shtml

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8 National Ocean Service working with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to alleviate confusion regarding tidal datums Inundation occurs when storm tide levels reach normally dry ground, and NHC forecasts describe flooding above ground Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) is being used to approximate where inundation could begin Storm Quicklook and NOS web services include water level data relative to MHHW Clarifying Water Levels and Datums

Office of Coast Survey Advancing Storm Surge Model Guidance NOS & NWS are building total water level models –Working to combine effects of storm surge, tides, waves, and rivers into operational surge models Accelerating transition of research to operations –Partnering with researchers on new prediction capabilities –Developing new operational models 9

Office of Coast Survey Upgrading Operational SLOSH Model: Tides NOS’ tide model coupled to NWS’ surge model Added to operational probabilistic SLOSH guidance PSurge –Utilizes hundreds of individual SLOSH tracks per forecast Surge + Tides = SLOSH+Tides 10

Office of Coast Survey Extratropical Surge+Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) running in Atlantic First operational surge model to include tide signal Delivers surge, tide, and combined water level Output produced 4 times per day Being installed in AWIPS Pacific version in development Extratropical Surge and Tide Prediction

Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Water Level Fields EC2001 grid (NetCDF) NDFD 2.5 km CONUS grid (GRIB2)

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