Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Office of Coast Survey Overview of the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for the Pacific Jesse Feyen and Jiangtao Xu National Ocean.

Published byAbner Fisher Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Office of Coast Survey Overview of the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for the Pacific Jesse Feyen and Jiangtao Xu National Ocean."— Presentation transcript:

1 Office of Coast Survey Overview of the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for the Pacific Jesse Feyen and Jiangtao Xu National Ocean Service/Office of Coast Survey/ Coast Survey Development Laboratory

2 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Overview –Operational guidance for extratropical surge and tides Large scale prediction of coastal water levels Insufficient TC resolution and lacks hurricane forcing –Provide surge+tide boundary conditions for NWS’s Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) Mimics WAVEWATCHIII ® (WW3) set-up –Operational for Atlantic since Oct 2012 Historically extreme surge event in Pacific (Astoria OR 2/4/2006) West Coast WLs tend to be dominated by tide range versus surge

3 Office of Coast Survey Model design considerations Ocean boundary location –Selected to cover West Coast and Hawaii while avoiding complex tidal amphidromes Land boundary –MHW shoreline; cannot predict overland inundation –2-3 km resolution to maintain large domain efficiency but limits capacity to resolve bays and estuaries –Limits accuracy of tidal prediction in complex and dynamic estuaries Water level accuracy goal of 0.20 cm RMSE or 20% of tide range, if larger

4 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Operational Set-up Run cycle –4 times per day during 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z cycles –6-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr forecast –Global Forecast System (GFS) forcing: 10 m winds and sea level pressure fields input every 3 hours –Approximately 120 min run time –Runs a tidal simulation followed by tide+wind driven simulation; the surge signal is isolated by subtracting tide predictions from surge+tide predicted water level

5 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Output Delivers three types of water level –Combined Water Level (CWL): Surge + tides –Harmonic Tidal Prediction (HTP): Astronomical tides –Subtidal Water Level (SWL): SWL = CWL – HTP = “surge” Provides both fields (hourly) and points (6 min) Generates output on native unstructured grid (NetCDF) and NDFD structured grid (GRIB2) –http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/estofs/prod –http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/ –GRIB2 will be eventually available via SBN for AWIPS

6 Office of Coast Survey M2M2 Domain Boundary Location Selection K1K1 Tested two boundaries; the black dashed line indicates final boundary from TPXO8 forcing with a 20% increase in M2 amp.

7 Office of Coast Survey Slide 7 ESTOFS-Pacific Evaluation Webinar ESTOFS-Pac Model Grid 132630 Nodes Size ranges: 850 m - 60 km

8 Office of Coast Survey Slide 8 ESTOFS-Pacific Evaluation Webinar ESTOFS-Pac Model Grid Cook Inlet Hawaiian Islands Puget Sound Columbia River San Francisco Bay

9 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Pacific Water Level Fields ESTOFS-Pacific grid (NetCDF) NDFD CONUS-2.5km, Alaska-6km, and Hawaii-2.5 km grids (GRIB2)

10 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Animations http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_pacific_surge_info.shtml CWL animations also available

11 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Hydrographs NWS/MDL has created a mirror of its ET-Surge website to display ESTOFS Pacific in the same manner people are used to viewing ETSS in the Pacific http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/

12 Office of Coast Survey Hindcast Validation Study (Dec. 2004-Feb. 2006) GFS analysis 6 hourly 1° x 1° fields provides forcing 10 m winds and pressure at MSL Water levels exceeded the 10% annual exceedance probability levels (i.e. 1 in 10-year event) for 3 storms: 1/7-1/11 2005: San Diego; La Jolla; Los Angeles; Santa Monica; Port San Luis; Monterey; San Francisco; Alameda; Point Reyes 12/30/2005-1/1/2006: Crescent City, CA; San Francisco, CA; Alameda, CA; Astoria, OR; South Beach, OR; Charleston, OR; Neah Bay, WA; Port Angeles, WA 2/4/2006: Astoria, OR; Toke Point, WA; Cherry Point, WA; Friday Harbor, WA; Port Angeles, WA

13 Office of Coast Survey Weather Map on 01/08/2005 Strong low pressure system close to West Coast

14 Office of Coast Survey San Francisco, CA Surge WL Combined WL January 2005 Storm

15 Office of Coast Survey Weather Map on 01/01/2006 Strong low pressure system off Washington coast

16 Office of Coast Survey Neah Bay, WA Surge WL Combined WL Dec-Jan 2006 Storm

17 Office of Coast Survey Weather Map on 02/04/2006 Strong low pressure system off BC coast

18 Office of Coast Survey Toke Point, WA Surge WL Combined WL February 2006 Storm

19 Office of Coast Survey Water Level Skill Assessment - Combined WL Largest errors are located well inside complex estuaries

20 Office of Coast Survey Water Level Skill Assessment – Tidal WL Tidal errors inside complex estuaries can be significant due to challenging tidal dynamics and river inflows

21 Office of Coast Survey Water Level Skill Assessment – Surge WL The subtidal water level, or surge, shows good skill nearly everywhere in the domain

22 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Pac Hindcast Water Level Skill Assessment RMSE (m) Stations CAORWA AK HI Cook Inlet Port Chicago Anchorage Port Chicago Accuracy benchmark Errors exceeding accuracy benchmark driven by challenging tidal dynamics or locations far inside complex estuaries

23 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Pac Hindcast Water Level Skill Assessment (RMSE relative to mean tidal range (MN)) RMSE Relative to MN Stations CAORWA AK HI Cook Inlet Port Chicago Anchorage Port Chicago Accuracy benchmark Errors exceeding accuracy benchmark relative to mean tide range limited to few locations far inside complex estuaries

24 Office of Coast Survey Hindcast Water Level Time Series Comparison Monterey, CA Neah Bay, WA Seward, AK Combined water level over the hindcast period

25 Office of Coast Survey Monterey, CA Neah Bay, WA Seward, AK Hindcast Water Level Time Series Comparison

26 Office of Coast Survey Los Angeles, CA Surge WL Combined WL

27 Office of Coast Survey Los Angeles, CA Surge WL Combined WL

28 Office of Coast Survey Monterey, CA Surge WL Combined WL

29 Office of Coast Survey Monterey, CA Surge WL Combined WL

30 Office of Coast Survey San Francisco, CA Surge WL Combined WL

31 Office of Coast Survey San Francisco, CA Surge WL Combined WL

32 Office of Coast Survey Humbolt Bay, CA Surge WL Combined WL

33 Office of Coast Survey Humbolt Bay, CA Surge WL Combined WL

34 Office of Coast Survey Port Orford, OR Surge WL Combined WL

35 Office of Coast Survey Port Orford, OR Surge WL Combined WL

36 Office of Coast Survey Astoria, OR Surge WL Combined WL

37 Office of Coast Survey Astoria, OR Surge WL Combined WL

38 Office of Coast Survey Neah Bay, WA Surge WL Combined WL

39 Office of Coast Survey Neah Bay, WA Surge WL Combined WL

40 Office of Coast Survey Seattle, WA Surge WL Combined WL

41 Office of Coast Survey Seattle, WA Surge WL Combined WL

42 Office of Coast Survey Sitka, AK Surge WL Combined WL

43 Office of Coast Survey Seward, AK Surge WL Combined WL

44 Office of Coast Survey Seward, AK Surge WL Combined WL

45 Office of Coast Survey Anchorage, AK Surge WL Combined WL

46 Office of Coast Survey Anchorage, AK Surge WL Combined WL

47 Office of Coast Survey King Cove, AK Surge WL Combined WL

48 Office of Coast Survey King Cove, AK Surge WL Combined WL

49 Office of Coast Survey Honolulu, HI Surge WL Combined WL

50 Office of Coast Survey Honolulu, HI Surge WL Combined WL

51 Office of Coast Survey Slide 51 ESTOFS-Pacific Evaluation Webinar ESTOFS-Pacific Real-Time Simulation Skills Surface Forcing: GFS 3 hourly 0.5º x 0.5º prediction fields (10 m winds and pressure at MSL) 05/06 - 06/05/2014 real-time test

52 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Pac Forecast Total Water Level Skill Assessment RMSE (m) Stations CAORWA AK HI Port Chicago, CA Bolinas Lagoon, CA Garibaldi, OR Skamokawa, WA Port Angeles, WA Port Townsend, WA Tacoma, WA Seattle, WA Cherry Point, WA Friday Harbor, WA Juneau, AK Skagway, AK Valdez, AK Nikiski, AK Anchorage, AK

53 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Pac Forecast Total Water Level Skill Assessment (RMSE relative to mean tidal range (MN)) RMSE Relative to MN Stations CAORWA AK HI Cook Inlet Port Chicago Port Chicago, CA Bolinas Lagoon, CA Friday Harbor, WA Midway Islands Kawaihae, HI Honolulu, HI

54 Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Development Team NOS/OCS/CSDL/Marine Modeling and Analysis Programs –Jesse Feyen, Yuji Funakoshi, Jiangtao Xu, Frank Aikman, Mary Erickson NWS/NCEP/EMC/Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch –Andre van der Westhuysen, Hendrik Tolman NWS/NCEP/NCEP Central Operations –Steven Earle, Kit M, Chris Caruso Magee, Becky Cosgrove, Boi Vong NWS/NCEP/OPC –Joe Sienkiewicz, Robert Daniels

Download ppt "Office of Coast Survey Overview of the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for the Pacific Jesse Feyen and Jiangtao Xu National Ocean."

Similar presentations

The utility of long-term reconstructions with regional climate models Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser, Ralf Weisse and Lars Bärring The Third Workshop on.

The utility of long-term reconstructions with regional climate models Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser, Ralf Weisse and Lars Bärring The Third Workshop on.
5 th NOAA Testbeds and Proving Grounds Workshop, April 16-18, 2014 André van der Westhuysen, Joannes Westerink, Juan Gonzalez, Jane Smith, Jamie Rhome,

5 th NOAA Testbeds and Proving Grounds Workshop, April 16-18, 2014 André van der Westhuysen, Joannes Westerink, Juan Gonzalez, Jane Smith, Jamie Rhome,
Modeling to Revise Coastal Inundation and Flooding Estimates in Georgia and Northeast Florida Association of State Flood Plain Managers Conference May.

Modeling to Revise Coastal Inundation and Flooding Estimates in Georgia and Northeast Florida Association of State Flood Plain Managers Conference May.
Tolman and friends, Feb. 6, 2008Coastal Altimetry 1/23 Altimeter wave data Deep ocean and coastal use and issues Hendrik L. Tolman NOAA / NWS / NCEP /

Tolman and friends, Feb. 6, 2008Coastal Altimetry 1/23 Altimeter wave data Deep ocean and coastal use and issues Hendrik L. Tolman NOAA / NWS / NCEP /
A Climatological Perspective of the 1962 Columbus Day Storm Wolf Read PhD Candidate Forest Science University of British Columbia

A Climatological Perspective of the 1962 Columbus Day Storm Wolf Read PhD Candidate Forest Science University of British Columbia
Office of Coast Survey NOS Coastal and Surge Modeling 2011 NCEP Production Suite Review Jesse C. Feyen Coast Survey Development Laboratory.

Office of Coast Survey NOS Coastal and Surge Modeling 2011 NCEP Production Suite Review Jesse C. Feyen Coast Survey Development Laboratory.
WORKING GROUP 1 MODELING OF WIND WAVES AND SURGE EVENTS IN THE CASPIAN, BLACK, AZOV AND BALTIC SEAS.

WORKING GROUP 1 MODELING OF WIND WAVES AND SURGE EVENTS IN THE CASPIAN, BLACK, AZOV AND BALTIC SEAS.
NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Port of New York/New Jersey Operational Forecast System (NYOFS) and Tracer Simulation Eugene Wei Coastal Survey.

NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Port of New York/New Jersey Operational Forecast System (NYOFS) and Tracer Simulation Eugene Wei Coastal Survey.
Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Demonstration Project Ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach Julie Thomas Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing.

Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Demonstration Project Ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach Julie Thomas Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing.
Patterns in Time of Extreme Tides and Sea Level Rise over The 21 st Century: Puget Sound and the Other Marine Waters of Washington State Harold O. Mofjeld.

Patterns in Time of Extreme Tides and Sea Level Rise over The 21 st Century: Puget Sound and the Other Marine Waters of Washington State Harold O. Mofjeld.
Verification of Numerical Weather Prediction systems employed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology over East Antarctica during the 2009-10 summer season.

Verification of Numerical Weather Prediction systems employed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology over East Antarctica during the summer season.
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Coastal Processes Modeling for the Alaskan Coast By Bruce.

US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Coastal Processes Modeling for the Alaskan Coast By Bruce.
Review of the NCEP production Suite: Recent Changes and Plans

Review of the NCEP production Suite: Recent Changes and Plans
Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Julie Thomas Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS) Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP)

Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Julie Thomas Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS) Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP)
Model Simulation Studies of Hurricane Isabel in Chesapeake Bay Jian Shen Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences College of William and Mary.

Model Simulation Studies of Hurricane Isabel in Chesapeake Bay Jian Shen Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences College of William and Mary.
Robert LaPlante NOAA/NWS Cleveland, OH David Schwab Jia Wang NOAA/GLERL Ann Arbor, MI 22 March 2011.

Robert LaPlante NOAA/NWS Cleveland, OH David Schwab Jia Wang NOAA/GLERL Ann Arbor, MI 22 March 2011.
Surge Height (NAWIPS) 5.4 feet Impact (Inundation) 4 feet TWL – (MHHW – MSL) 8 – (4-0)=4.

Surge Height (NAWIPS) 5.4 feet Impact (Inundation) 4 feet TWL – (MHHW – MSL) 8 – (4-0)=4.
Ensemble storm surge forecasting in the UK during the exceptional 2013/14 winter Helen Titley Senior Weather Impacts Scientist, Met Office, UK With thanks.

Ensemble storm surge forecasting in the UK during the exceptional 2013/14 winter Helen Titley Senior Weather Impacts Scientist, Met Office, UK With thanks.
UCF Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System TIDES AND WAVES FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

UCF Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System TIDES AND WAVES FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) and ROMS Applications in NOS Operational Forecast Systems Aijun Zhang 1, Mark Vincent 2, Frank Aikman 3 Eugene.

NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) and ROMS Applications in NOS Operational Forecast Systems Aijun Zhang 1, Mark Vincent 2, Frank Aikman 3 Eugene.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google