Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency Ozone SIP Schedule and CCOS Products Policy Committee Meeting John DaMassa April 18, 2002

Ozone SIP and CCOS Products Inventory Development (6/02 & 12/02) Meteorological Modeling (9/02 & 12/02) Air Quality Model Selection (10/02) Air Quality Model Evaluation (1/03) Attainment Demonstration (6/03)

Inventory Development Status of Emission Inventory Development Develop Preliminary Inventory –Include Many New Improvements –EMFAC 2001 v2.08 –Biogenics –Spatial Surrogates –Available ~Jun. 2002

Inventory Development Inventory Development Develop Final Inventory –Final EMFAC –Transportation Network –Final COG Activity Data (9/02) –Dairy Inventory Update –Heavy Duty Truck Movement –Freeze Inventory (12/02) Future Year Inventory

Inventory Development New Supporting Contracts UC Berkeley –Create Fuel-Based Inventory for Motor Vehicles (12/02) –Create VOC Speciation Profiles for Gasoline-Powered Vehicles (12/02)

Meteorological Modeling Meteorological Modeling MM5 Is Likely to Be Used RAMS is an Alternative Model CCOS Measurements Will Be Used for Model Improvements and Evaluation

Meteorological Modeling Meteorological Modeling New Supporting Contracts NOAA Initial Simulation (9/02) Optimized Model (12/02) T&B Systems Provide Met Data Analysis for Model Evaluation (9/02)

Air Quality Model Selection Air Quality Model Selection Available Models SAQM SJV SIP Model CMAQ – U.S. EPA’s Model CAMx – ENVIRON’s Model

Air Quality Model Selection Select SIP Model –ARB, districts, EPA Select Model with Public Input (10/02) Optimize SIP Model –Grid resolution –Numerical Analysis Options –Meteorological Inputs –Emissions Updates –Select Optimum Model Config. (12/02)

Air Quality Model Selection New Supporting Contracts UCR and T&B Systems –Evaluate Models on Common Ground –Evaluate Different Chemistries –Provide Input for Model Selection

Air Quality Model Evaluation Model Performance Evaluation Episodes: July 30 – August 2, 2000 (Su-We) September 17 – 20, 2000 (Su-We) June 14 – 15, 2000 (We-Th) (Will Be Included in the Bay Area SIP) August 3 – 6, 1990 (Fr-Mo)

Air Quality Model Evaluation Complete Model Evaluation Compare Model Output to Observations (U.S. EPA, ARB, and Other Guidance) Stress Test Models Freeze Air Quality Model for SIP Simulations

Air Quality Model Evaluation New Supporting Contracts UCR/UCD, RFP: Identify Significant Contributors to Ozone Formation Through Analysis of Observed Data Evaluate Formation of Ozone Using Air Quality Indicators Compare Both Results to Model Outputs

Attainment Demonstration Assess Carrying Capacity Simulate Episodes with Proposed Emission Controls