1. California Energy Commission Joint Lead Commissioner Workshop on Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts June 24, 2015 Bob McBride Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division 1 Preliminary Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Forecast

2. California Energy Commission Overview Truck purchase factors differ (public vs. private) Emphasis on low demand scenario Forecasting fuel types for trucks Market share consequences of fuel price Planned updates 2

3. California Energy Commission Different Factors Motivate Public and Private Truck Purchases Public Fleet Fleet age or mileage Funding available Incentives and goals Demonstration of technology Air quality regulation Range Private Fleet Payback period –Age-dependent costs –Expected annual VMT Limited by weight or volume? Technology experience Air quality regulation Range 3

4. California Energy Commission Preliminary Truck Forecast Based on Truck 5.1 Model produced by National Petroleum Council –EIA Annual Energy Outlook fuel economy, fuel and vehicle prices as of 2010 –Diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and diesel-electric hybrid are considered Estimates of market share by fuel type Market share driven by relative fuel prices 4

5. California Energy Commission Preliminary Truck Counts Medium and Heavy Duty 5 All fuel types included

6. California Energy Commission 2015 Economic Conditions Favor Diesel 6 ACT Research, Natural Gas Quarterly, May 2015

7. California Energy Commission 7 Lower percentages are more favorable to natural gas.

8. California Energy Commission 8

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11. California Energy Commission 11 Diesel market share roughly flat while natural gas market share increases.

12. California Energy Commission 12 Recycling and refuse truck sales driven by air quality policies.

13. California Energy Commission Changes Expected for Revised Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Forecast 13

14. California Energy Commission 14

15. California Energy Commission Market Share Using DAO 2015 High Oil Prices 15 Historical (calc)

16. California Energy Commission 16 Market Share Using DAO 2015 Low Oil Prices

17. California Energy Commission Proposed Updates Fuel and vehicle prices EMFAC 2014 data Market share estimates 17

18. California Energy Commission Questions? Comments? Bob McBride Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division Bob.mcbride@energy.ca.gov / 916-654-5009 18

19. California Energy Commission Reference Slides 19

20. California Energy Commission Final Forecast Principal Sources Energy Commission, Supply Analysis Office, 2015 Preliminary Fuel Price Forecast Energy Information Agency, Annual Energy Outlook, 2015 Fuel Price Forecast Truck 5.1 model used in Advancing Technology for America’s Transportation Future, Summary Report, National Petroleum Council, 2012 ARB Technology Assessments (now in draft) EMFAC 2014 (now in EPA SIP review) U. S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2015 20

21. California Energy Commission 21 Fuel Economy Increase of ~40% (2015 to 2030, AEO 2010 High Oil Price Case) Source: NPC 2012

22. California Energy Commission Preliminary Sales Share of Tractor Trailers by Fuel Type 22 Source: NPC 2012

23. California Energy Commission 23 Fuel Type Share of Single Unit Trucks >26,000# GVW (AEO 2010 Fuel Prices) Source: NPC 2012

24. California Energy Commission Fuel Type Share of Single Unit Trucks 10,000# to 26,000# GVW (AEO 2010 High Oil Prices ) 24 Source: NPC 2012