Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation using Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) for Uzbekistan Central latitude of the model domain 40N Central longitude 60E iy 40 jx 51 ds 60km Cumulus parameterization scheme Grell Convective closure scheme Fritsch &Chappell Two experiments: NCEP and ECMWF Simulation Period

Topography of the domain

NCEP ECMWF Observed Monthly Precipitation CRU

Observed Monthly Temperature CRU NCEP ECMWF

Simulated Maximum Temperature (12) It was observed a hit wave in the in central part of the country ECMWF NCEP

Estimating possible extreme values of monthly air temperature. Fig. (a) presents the values of the 90 % probability empirical quantiles throughout the territory and its possible values in conditions of a 1°C increase of the mean air temperature in July. The figures clearly show expansion of the areas where extremely high monthly air temperatures are probable a b

a b Estimating possible extreme values of monthly air temperature. Fig. (a) presents a distribution of the 10 % probability empirical quantiles of the average monthly air temperature in January. Fig. (b) presents the same value computed for conditions of a 2°C increase in the average air temperature throughout the territory of Uzbekistan. The quantiles were computed for the conditions of climatic scenarios with the application of theoretical distribution functions.

Main Conclusion : Research using RegCM3 should be established in Uzbekistan It can be observed that natural ecosystems and agriculture have become more vulnerable to climate changes. Irrigation zones