1. Weather forecasting using MM5 in Peru and new perspective for climate modeling Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima Instituto Geofísico del Perú Yamina Silva

2. Using RegCM for Climate Studies Precipitation climatology in Peru Challenge for modeling in complex terrain. Using the models for weather prediction (MM5) Climate change studies for a pilot region

3. Lima (13 masl), annual precip. 16mm Huayao (3,350masl) Annual precip. 756mm Iquitos (126 masl), annual precip. 2770mm Precipitation Climatology

4. 1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in Piura region 79808182838485868788899091929394959697989900010203 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 mm/month Piura Tumbes Talara El Niño 1987 El Niño 1983 El Niño 1998 El Niño 1992 Huge positive anomaly in temp. And precip. during “EL Niño" events:  Agriculture (Rice, limon, cotton, etc).  Fishery  Floods and diseases. Northern coast (positive rainfall anomaly) Chira-Piura basin Challenge for modeling in complex terrain

5. Precipitation vs SST Ref.: Dr. R.Woodman, 1998

6. The Central Andes 500-5000 meters (negative anomaly ? ) 1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in the central Andes  40% of electric energy of Perú is generated by a hydroelectric power plant on this river (Mantaro river). Mantaro basin

7. The Altiplano of Peru 3000-4000 meters (negative anomaly) 79808182838485868788899091929394959697989900010203 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 mm/month Lagunillas Juliaca 1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in the Altiplano Region Negative anomaly during El Niño events (1983, 1992) El Titicaca basin

8. Some experiences with the MM5 Weather forecasting Modeling some extreme events during the summer Simulation with high resolution domain (nesting) Evaluation of cumulus and PBL schemes

9. MM5 Version 3.3: Nesting with 3 Domains: South America: 54x54km (180x205) Perú: 18x18km (124x100) Lima: 6x6km (100x100) 60 hours forecast Cumulus: Grell Explicit: Simple ice PBL: Gayno-Seaman IC & BC: AVN WS Compaq ES-40 4 CPU, 2 GB RAM 500MHz 18.2 GB HD (2 HD) ACTUAL CONFIGURATION OF MM5 RUNNING IN PERU

10. Precipitation forecast for the 3 domains

11. Pronostico del Modelo MM5 Extreme precipitation events during the 18 and 19 March of 2001 (North of Peru, Piura) 24 hour precipitation (MM5, 18km resolution)24 hour precipitation (estimated by GOES)

12. CPS sensibility GOES Estimated precipitation (Vicente, at.al, 1998)

13. March 2000September 1999 Evaluation of Grell convective scheme GOES Estimated precipitation (Vicente, at.al, 1998) vs MM5 precipitation - 24 hours acumulated

14. During the intense rainy period, Grell CPS tends to overstimate the precip. March 2000September 1999 Grell convective scheme

15. CORRELACION INDEX GRELL CPS KUO CPS * Is equal to 0.78 if we not consider the model values greeter then 10mm (M>10) Ecuatorial region: 80ºW-40ºW / 10ºS-10ºN, Subtropical region:80ºW-40ºW / 30ºS-10ºS. Silva and Takahashi, 2000 (MM5 Users workshop)

16. What we expect of using RegCM for Climate Studies Climate variability, El Niño response for a regional (local) scale Simulate some extreme events during the rainy season Using RegCM for climate change studies (high resolution) => Pilot points for studing: 1. Mantaro Basin (central Andes) 2. Chira-Piura basin (northern coast) 3. Titicaca basin (southern Andes)

17. The GCM could represent the general pattern, but not the detals, specially over the Andes Monthly precipitation (mm/day) March 2003 (GCM CPTEC/COLA, T42)

18. Domain 1 for South America: 80km (90x110), 11 levels, IC-BC: CPTEC/COLA GCM, 3 months simulations (16 Feb-02 May 2003) Precipitation rate (mm/day) March 2003 (RegCM) Precipitation rate (mm/day) March 2003 (GOES estimated)

19. Domain for Peru: 30km (90x110), 11 levels, IC-BC: RegCM Domain 1 (80km), 3 months simulations (16 Feb-02 May 2003) Precipitation rate (mm/day) March 2003 (RegCM) Precipitation rate (mm/day) March 2003 (GOES estimated)

20. Precipitation rate (mm/day) March 2003 (RegCM) Monthly Precipitation amount (mm/month) March 2003 (Observed-DCPs ) RegCM vs Observed precipitation

21. Sub-project: Integrated local evaluation in the Mantaro Basin. National project for Climate change and adaptation, supported by the government of Holland: 2003-2005 Objectives: Interannual climate variability studies and extend it for climate change. Identify vulnerable areas Questions? If the global temperature increase? How will change the water resources in the basin? What could be the agricultural impact? Social impacts, etc…

22. Mining region Agricultural region Hydroelectric station

23. High resolution domain: HOPES!: N on-Hydrostatic RegCM, with nesting, using the global model scenarios.

24. Conclusion The climate variability studies in the regional/local scales using the numerical climate models are an important issue for Peru, and also the challenge because of the complex terrain. We hope that the climate change scenarios for Peru using the RegCM, will became reality and the results will help for the future national planes. The collaborations in the climate variability and climate changes studies are very welcome.

25. Many thanks! E-mail: yamina@chavin.igp.gob.peyamina@chavin.igp.gob.pe Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima Instituto Geofísico del Perú