1. Group 5 Bojariu, Roxana Bojariu, Roxana National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Romania Bucharest, Romania Srnec, Lidija Srnec, Lidija Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia Zagreb, Croatia Velea, Liliana Velea, Liliana National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Romania Bucharest, Romania

2. Sensitivity of the local response over Europe to extreme NAO phases

3. Motivation  NAO  It’s a dominant circulation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere winter.  It’s a source of predictability for the European regions.  It has socio-economic impacts (e.g. power and water management, marine ecosystem resources, agriculture)

4. Questions:  Does the model represent the NAO signal?  What is the effect of ocean flux parameterization scheme on the simulated NAO signal?

5. Experiment design Domain: 80x70x18 46N,8E Domain: 80x70x18 46N,8E Period of simulations:January 1995 Period of simulations:January 1995 (CRU NAO index=+2.7) January 1996 January 1996 (CRU NAO index=-3.71) Data:ECMWF Data:ECMWFNCEP2CRU Ocean flux scheme: Zeng Ocean flux scheme: ZengBATS

7. PRECIPITATION 1995 CRU ECMWF NCEP2

8. TEMPERATURE Jan 1995 CRU ECMWF NCEP2

9. PRECIPITATION JAN 1996 CRU ECMWF NCEP2

10. TEMPERATURE JAN 1996 CRU ECMWF NCEP2

11. DIFFERENCE PRECIPITATION (COMPOSITES) 95-96(NCEP2) CRUNCEP2

12. DIFFERENCE TEMPERATURE (COMPOSITES) 95-96(NCEP2) CRUNCEP2

13. PRECIPITATION Jan 1995(ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS

14. PRECIPITATION JAN 1996 (ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS

15. PRECIPITATION JAN 1996 (NCEP2) CRU Zeng BATS

16. TEMPERATURE JAN 1995(ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS

17. TEMPERATURE JAN 1996(ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS

18. Preliminary conclusions Local features of the NAO-type patterns are well represented. Relevant local responses due to topography are identified. Zeng ocean flux parameterization scheme seems to be more realistic in precipitation field, but the differences are not pronounced. Zeng ocean flux parameterization scheme seems to be more realistic in precipitation field, but the differences are not pronounced.

19. Follow up Extended simulation interval Extended simulation interval More analysis methods More analysis methods