Wicked Problems (Understanding complexity)
Agree concepts Define boundaries
Land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5 meters and a canopy cover of more than 10 percent, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use. What is a forest?
Definitions matter Source: Rekacewicz et al
13 m ha.yr - 1 Determining trends
Reforestatio n 7,8 m ha.yr -1 Forest Expansion Afforestation
Understanding the trend Developing a dynamic systems understanding Time
EXPLAINING THE TRENDS: Identifying Drivers Underlying causes Proximate causes Influencing factors Demograph y Births, deaths Migration Population density Culture Public attitudes, beliefs, values Individual behaviour Institutions Formal policies Policy environment Property rights Technology Intensification Infrastructure Processing efficiency Economy Market growth Market demand Price fluctuation Infrastructure Transport & energy Industrialisation Urban expansion Agriculture Cultivation type Land clearance Land speculation Timber extraction Commercial logging Illegal logging Logging intensity Environment Disturbance regime Social & political stability
It’s complex!
Wellbeing Quality of Life Think… What is important in your life?
What is important for your quality of life?
Livelihoods How do you secure what is important to you?
Capital Assets Framework
Natural Capital Land and products Water & aquatic resources Trees and forest products Wildlife Wild foods & fibres
Physical Capital Infrastructure transport - roads, vehicles, etc. secure shelter & buildings water supply & sanitation energy communications Technology tools and equipment seed, fertiliser, pesticides traditional technology
Financial Capital Savings Credit/debt Remittances Pensions Wages
Human Capital Health Nutrition Education Knowledge and skills Capacity to work Capacity to adapt
Social Capital Networks and connections Trust Formal and informal groups Participation in decision- making Leadership
Sustainable Livelihood Framework
Livelihoods “The assets (natural, physical, human, financial and social), and access to these determine the living gained by the individual or the household” Source: Ellis, Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
The Social-Ecological System Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 2006
Trade Offs 1.Ecosystem Services 2.Strategies 3.Stakeholders 4.Technical fixes People have many different options, and they are good at finding new ones!
Wicked Problems Multiple actors Differing perspectives Conflicting interests Significant intangibles Pervasive uncertainties Each solution is unique Each solution is costly …and has consequences Former US Secretary of State George Shultz drew a distinction between “problems you can solve”, and “problems you can only work at.”
Think of a problem. Are you having trouble clearly defining it? Does it involve changing what people think or do, or how they think of themselves? Do you suspect that when you think you have solved it, there will still be some outstanding issue, or new problem to deal with? Do you know that no matter what you do, someone will be unhappy? Does the problem keep changing? Are you failing to make progress by being rational? An environmental problem.
Wicked Problems Solutions are not right or wrong … acceptable … but more or less acceptable No stopping rule processThe answer is a process
Authoritative Competitive Collaborative Taming Wicked Problems