Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births since 2001? Nicola Tromans, Eva Natamba and Julie Jefferies Office for National Statistics

Trends in UK births and fertility rates Data sources Country of birth analysis –Births –Population –Fertility rates Quantify drivers behind rise in births Most common countries of birth, foreign born mothers Actual and intended family size comparison Overview

Trends in UK births and fertility rates

Data Sources Analysis based on Country of birth of mother –Not a precise proxy for international migrants Birth Registrations –Births by age and by country of birth of mother Annual Population Survey –Estimated UK population UK born and foreign born females by five-year age group –LFS 2001

Live births by country of birth of mother, UK, % of overall rise in UK births since 2001 can be attributed to foreign born women Source: Birth registrations

Proportion of births to foreign born women, UK, 2001 and 2008 Between 2001 and 2008 the proportion of births to foreign born women increased from 15.3 per cent to 22.9 per cent.

Estimated population of women of reproductive age by country of birth, UK, 2001 and 2008

Source: Labour Force Survey 2001, Annual Population Survey 2008.

Live births by age and country of birth of mother, UK, 2001 and 2008 Source: Birth Registrations

Estimated Total Fertility Rates for UK born and foreign born women, UK, UK born Foreign born Source: Birth registrations and Annual Population Survey The rise in the overall TFR is mainly due to increasing fertility among UK born women Foreign born women are also pushing the TFR upwards though because they generally have higher fertility and are making up an increasing share of the UK population

Why have the number of births to UK born and foreign born women increased since 2001? UK born women: –Rising fertility rates –Rise in births not as high as could have been Decreasing female population aged Foreign born women: –Increase in number of women particularly at ages where fertility is highest –Higher fertility levels than UK born counterparts Fertility rates have remained relatively unchanged

Quantifying the drivers of the overall increase in UK births, FactorImpact on number of births between 2004 and 2007 UK born: Increased fertility rates39,300 Foreign born: Increased numbers of females of reproductive age 32,200 Foreign born: Changes in the age structure 4,700 Foreign born: Changes in the fertility rates 3,300 UK Born: Decreasing numbers of females of reproductive age -10,700 UK Born: Changes in the age structure -14,000

Ten most common countries of birth of mother, foreign born mothers only, UK country of birth of motherLive births country of birth of motherLive births Pakistan15,111 Pakistan18,311 Bangladesh8,218 Poland13,333 India6,735 India12,478 Germany4,673 Bangladesh8,850 Republic of Ireland4,589 Nigeria6,702 Somalia3,202 Somalia5,952 United States3,070 Germany5,564 Nigeria2,643 South Africa4,708 South Africa2,322 Republic of Ireland4,258 France2,065 Ghana3,784

Distribution of Actual family size, women aged Great Britain Percentage UK bornForeign born No children22 1 child children children18 4+ children915 Sample size11,2401,413 Source: GHS

Distribution of Intended family size, women aged Great Britain Percentage UK bornForeign born No children child children children children713 Sample size33,9204,250 Source: GHS

Does a high proportion of births to foreign born mothers imply high fertility levels? Local Authorities, England and Wales, 2007

Summary: Why have UK births increased? : Births increased by 19% Births to foreign born women account for 2/3 of overall increase Increasing UK born fertility –Downwards effect from changes in size and age structure UK born population Increased numbers of foreign born females –Much smaller upward impact from changes to Foreign born population age structure Foreign born fertility rates

Will the increase in births continue? UK born women –Dependent on future fertility rates –Downward impact from population size and age structure expected to continue Foreign born women –Future fertility levels – some form of convergence? –Future migration patterns unknown – impact on population size Recent economic downturn could affect both groups in different ways –Existing theories point to both possible rise or fall in fertility rates –Effect on migration

Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births since 2001? Population Trends 136