1. Changing subnational fertility trends in England and Wales Nicola Tromans, Dr Julie Jefferies and Eva Natamba Fertility Analysis Unit, ONS Centre for Demography Dr Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds Paul’s research has been funded by the ESRC's Understanding Population Trends and Processes programme (RES-163-25-0032)

2. Outline 1.National trends in fertility since 1986 2.Have these same trends occurred by region? 3.Fertility trends at LA level 4.Relationship between TFR and age patterns of fertility (LA level) 5.Insight into fertility trends within individual LAs population subgroups which may influence fertility

3. Total Fertility Rate, 1986-2007 England and Wales

4. How have age patterns of fertility changed since 1986? (England and Wales)

5. Further changes in fertility trends since 1986 (England and Wales) Increased % of births occurring outside marriage 21 per cent of births in 1986 44 per cent of births in 2007 Increased % of births to women born outside the UK 12 per cent of births in 1986 23 per cent of births in 2007

6. Do regional TFR trends differ from national trends? TFR pattern for E&W evident for each region - All regions experience a record low TFR in either 2001 or 2002

7. Regional Trends - TFR Regions exhibiting the highest and lowest TFRs have varied –Highest TFR 1986-1993 North West, West Midlands, Wales 1994-2006 West Midlands (1.96 in 2006) –Lowest TFR 1986-1990 London, North East, South East 1990-1993 London 1994-2005 North East 2006 North East and South West (1.79)

8. Regional Trends – most fertile age group In 1986, the most fertile age group in all regions was 25-29 By 2006 the most fertile age group increased to 30-34 in the East and all southern regions. fertility postponement in the south

9. Does the TFR trend at local authority level correspond with the national trend? Distribution of local authority TFRs 1986, 2001, 2006

10. Which local authorities have the highest TFRs? Number of times LA appeared in top 10 between 1986 and 2006 (inclusive) Newham21 Blackburn with Darwen UA21 Luton UA19 Bradford19 Hackney and City of London14 Oldham14 Tower Hamlets13 Rochdale12 Pendle9 Hyndburn9

11. Which local authorities have the lowest TFRs? Number of times LA appeared in bottom 10 between 1986 and 2006 (inclusive) Cambridge21 Durham21 Oxford20 Kensington and Chelsea19 Camden16 Hammersmith and Fulham13 Brighton and Hove UA12 Exeter12 Bournemouth UA7 Berwick-Upon-Tweed6

12. How many local authorities experience older age patterns of fertility in 2006? Peak age of fertility Number of local authorities 198620012006 20-24152312 25-29351237192 30-348114169 35-39001 (Islington)

13. Relationship between TFR and age patterns of fertility (local authority level) Do areas where the TFR is low have lower fertility at all ages when compared with areas where the TFR is high?

14. Mean ASFRs in LAs with highest TFR and LAs with lowest TFRs 2006 Compared 50 LAs with lowest TFR and 50 LAs with highest TFR

15. An insight into fertility in individual local authorities...

16. TFR trends in selected local authorities

17. Cambridge – age patterns of fertility TFR198620012006 Cambridge1.351.201.39 East (Region)1.751.671.87

18. Cambridge – Students Presence of HE institutions likely to affect fertility Students – lower fertility while studying Graduates – tend to enter motherhood later More noticeable where % of students in population is high

19. Cambridge - births to migrants 41% of births in 2006 were to mothers born outside UK England and Wales 22% Diverse range of countries including –13% EU countries –5% USA, Canada, Australia or New Zealand

20. How do international migrants affect fertility levels? No clear cut relationship between %births to non-UK born mothers and level of fertility in an area – considerable variation in fertility levels of women from different countries of birth Birth registration does not use detailed definition of ‘usual residence’ Short term migrants not included in population estimates –12 month definition of ‘usual residence’

21. Key findings – fertility patterns since 1986 1.National TFR patterns are reflected at the regional level - not always mirrored at LA level 2.In 1986, all regions experienced peak fertility at ages 25-29. By 2006 the south had increased to 30-34 3.LAs with relatively high TFRs display much higher fertility at younger reproductive ages 4.LAs with relatively low TFRs have an older age pattern for childbearing 5.Population subgroups such as students, graduates and migrants can impact upon period fertility in LAs.

22. Nicola.Tromans@ons.gov.uk