1 icfi.com | Special Meeting of the Oregon Environmental Quality Commission Clean Fuels Compliance Scenario Updates November 20, 2014

2 icfi.com | Objectives of the Study  Update to the Business-As-Usual (BAU) case to determine what the net fuel volume requirements for minimum cumulative compliance  Develop a set of scenarios with DEQ that achieve cumulative compliance from Scenarios are an update to the original rulemaking process in 2010 These scenarios are meant to represent reasonable boundary scenarios for alternative fuel consumption that will be needed to meet the standard

3 icfi.com | Methodology  Updated the BAU case taking into account updated regulations and vehicle fleet mix Up-to-date Oregon fleet characteristics from registration data Light-duty fuel economy standards Updated zero emission vehicle (ZEV) standard U.S., Oregon and Portland renewable fuel requirements  Developed scenarios for minimum cumulative compliance from Created technology bounding scenarios to illustrate fuel volumes required for minimum compliance –Scenario 1 – Advanced Vehicle Technology (electricity and natural gas) –Scenario 2 – Higher Biofuel Blending Includes banking of credits in the early years, as seen in California Carbon intensities based on a combination of the previous assessment and CA-LCFS Method 2 applications

4 icfi.com | Alternative Fuels and Simplifying Assumptions  Ethanol – Maintain E10 blend and minimize E85 Corn, corn(+), sorghum, sugarcane, cellulosic  Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel – Maximum B10 and RD2 Biodiesel: soybean, waste grease, canola, corn Renewable diesel: tallow, waste Oil  Natural Gas, Renewable Natural Gas and Propane – 10% diesel pool consumption Natural gas/Propane: light-, medium- and heavy-duty sectors RNG: landfills, displace natural gas; Oregon instate max of 46 MGPY  Electricity – Maintain ZEV compliance Light-duty PHEVs and BEVs Medium- and heavy-duty HEVs; 10% market share in Scenario 1  Hydrogen – No hydrogen consumption

5 icfi.com | What the Study Does and Does Not Do  Does Provide Oregon DEQ with illustrative scenarios of fuel volumes required for minimum compliance from (total credits = total deficits) Show that variety of fuels, not just biofuel blending, is important for achieving compliance – electricity (ZEV) and RNG Cellulosic ethanol advancements are not necessary to achieve compliance  Does not Forecast the fuel volumes that will be consumed in Oregon Predict advancements in cellulosic and other extremely low carbon liquid biofuels Attempt to balance year over year credit and deficit generation Consider a scenario without compliance being achieved