MNV/RL 1 Indicators of climate change on ecosystems and biodiversity Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans Bureau of Environmental Assessment

MNV/RL 2 Past and Future Rapid Environmental Change

MNV/RL 3 General conclusions by Huntley et al., Response to rapid climate change is species-specific and involves spatial and evolutionary mechanisms. There are thresholds and magnitudes of change to which organisms respond with either or both mechanisms 4 Regional variation is profound. Sometimes the regional trend differ from the global trend. Biodiversity is reshaped according to regional environmental characteristics 4 Major species extinctions during the Quarternary occurred during periods of rapid climate change 4 High altitude areas, coastal areas, isolated islands (high levels of endemism) and continetal ‘cul-de-sac’ areas were and will be the most vulnerable 4 It seems certain that future CC will have substantial impact upon regional and global biodiversity.

MNV/RL 4 Stresses on Ecosystems biodiversity Vitality Soil conservation Water conservation Carbon cycle productivity Diversity of seral stages and stand structure Trophic network integrity Physical and biotic stability Equilibrium among supply/demand of essential resources Continued carbon sequestration Resilience Sustainable Reduction in size of components System retrogression Reduced carbon storage Changes in species diversity Change in nutrient cycling Change in productivity Non- Sustainable Exotic species Management practices climateAir pollution Extreme events

MNV/RL 5 Causes of changes in biodiversity biodiversity timepath Habitat destruction exotic species overexploitation and degradation pollution fragmentation climate change protection restoration sustainable use ? ?

Linkages and Trade-offs are Real Sectoral assessments are too narrow

MNV/RL 7 Combining climate change and other global change aspects: Impacts on biodiversity Boreal forests Savannas Land useCO 2 concentrations Nitrogen deposition Climate changeAlien species Temperate forests Tropical forests 1 Arctic regions 1

MNV/RL 8 NDVI in January

MNV/RL 9 NDVI in February

MNV/RL 10 NDVI in March

MNV/RL 11 NDVI in April

MNV/RL 12 NDVI in May

MNV/RL 13 NDVI in June

MNV/RL 14 NDVI in July

MNV/RL 15 NDVI in August

MNV/RL 16 NDVI in September

MNV/RL 17 NDVI in October

MNV/RL 18 NDVI in November

MNV/RL 19 NDVI in December

MNV/RL 20 Changes in length and start of growing season Length Start Start of growing season after the summer drought Increase in the length of the growing season Increase in summer droughts

MNV/RL 21 Change in fire-proneness (i.e. the area of no current dry season but one in the future)

MNV/RL 22 An example: Changing ecosystems at a global mean temperature increase of 3 o C Ecosystems that change are coloured. Improvement Improvement: More trees and higher productivity Change: needle-leafed forests becomes broad-leafed forest Change: Different species composition and landscapes Degradation Degradation: Fewer trees and lower productivity Extinction: Large habitat decline and irreversible change Extinction

MNV/RL 23 Dieback is fast, regrowth is slow

MNV/RL 24 Impact on the yield of corn Less No More The regional yield can change: some regions improve while others decline (mainly driven by drought)

MNV/RL 25 How do risks evolve globally? Impacts are expressed as the percentage area affected. The reference is the current area (crops) or the total amount of land (ecosystems). 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % Ecosystems Yield decrease Yield increase Extent decrease Extent expansion 1 o C2 o C3 o C

MNV/RL Past Future 0 Risk to SomeRisk to Many Risks to unique & valuable systems IncreaseLarge increase Risk of extreme weather events Negative for some regions Negative for most regions Distribution of impacts Net Negative for most metrics Positive or negative Market impacts, Majority of People adversely affected Aggregate impacts Very lowHigher Risks from future large- scale discontinuities The reasons for concern

MNV/RL 27 IPCC SRES scenarios and reason for concerns for dangerous impacts

MNV/RL 28 KEY Condition Changing Capacity Environmental Scorecard Source: Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems, WRI, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank

MNV/RL 29 Driver Response Human Impact MA will address impacts of multiple drivers IPCC Climate Change Energy Sector Biodiversity Food Supply Water HealthEconomicsSocial Ecosystems HealthEconomicsSocial Climate Change Land Cover Change Biodiversity Loss Nutrient Loading Etc. MA

MNV/RL 30 The MA assessment framework Scale 3 Scale 2 Demand Scale 1 Primary Drivers Demographic Change Economic Change Social and Political Change Technological change Lifestyle and Behavioral change Proximate Drivers Climate Change Land Use & Cover Change Factor inputs Pollution Nutrient Release Species Introductions Harvest Ecosystems & their Services Supporting (Biodiversity and ecosystem processes) Provisioning (Food, water,fiber, fuel, other biological products) Enriching (Cultural, aesthetic) Wellbeing & Poverty Reduction Health and disease Environmental Security Cultural Security Economic Security Equity = Strategies and Interventions

MNV/RL 31 Thanks for your attention

MNV/RL 32 An example of the monthly exceedance indicator

MNV/RL 33 An example of the monthly exceedance indicator

MNV/RL 34 Global exceedance

MNV/RL 35 Regional Exceedance Higher temperature increase but broad temperature ranges (especially in the winter): all ecosystems affected but not throughout the year Medium temperature increase but less broad temperature ranges: all ecosystems affected during most of the year Small temperature increase but narrow temperature ranges: almost all ecosystems affected during most of the year

MNV/RL 36 Spatial pattern of exceedance in 2050