1 Cohesion Policy and demography By Ronald Hall Director Directorate-General for Regional Policy 28 April 2010

2 Overview The EU’s demographic structure The territorial expression of demography: the unique settlement structure of the EU Demographic outlook over the next 20 years Demography and European cohesion policy programmes

3 The EU’s demographic structure High life expectancy Very low infant mortality Low natural population growth Ageing population High share of foreign born population

4 Life expectancy is among the highest in the world

5 Infant mortality is very low In the EU infant mortality stands at 5 per 1000 live births, only seven countries outside Europe have a lower rate However, in most regions of Romania and Bulgaria, the rate is more than double the EU average

6 Share of seniors high in Western EU The share of seniors is 17% in 2010 Spain, Italy, Greece and Eastern Germany all have regions where the share is higher than 20% This leads to a strong increase in the demand for health care services and relatively smaller labour force

7 Foreign born mostly in western EU regions, but much lower than in US

8 Foreign born often underemployed Employment rates for the foreign born are often considerably lower than those born in the country For example, in Germany, Denmark, Sweden, the Benelux, Austria, UK and France, employment rates are more than eight % points lower than those of EU-born In Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Malta, Cyprus and the three Baltic states the employment rate of the foreign born are four to eight % points higher than those of the EU-born

9 The territorial expression of demography: a unique settlement pattern in the EU

10 A large number of mid-size cities and only two cities over 10 million

11 a few large cities on the coasts

12 Small number of megacities

13 Very few mid-sized cities

14 Demographic outlook over the next 20 years Further ageing Further increase in foreign born Further slowing down of population growth Absolute decline of the working age population already the case Data based on the latest Eurostat Regional Population projections

15 Accelerated aging in the East

16 Increased share of seniors By 2030 almost one in four resident of the EU will be over 65 These shares are particularly high in Germany through a combination of the current population structure, low birth rates and high life expectancy

17 Natural growth turns negative Between 2008 and 2030 natural population change is likely to become negative in the majority of EU regions. Only in France, UK, Spain, Ireland, the Benelux and some of the Nordic regions is natural change still (just) positive

18 Declining working age population The working age population in the EU has already started declining in absolute terms In 2009, two out of three regions had a declining share of working age population. By 2013, nine out of ten regions will have a declining share of working age population

19 Unknown factor: International migration International migration is likely to continue to contribute to population growth in the EU. In particular, Southern European regions and some of the major cities can expect a continuing strong inflow of international migrants

20 Population change (natural change + net migration) This projection indicates a significant population decline, particularly in the Central and Eastern Member States through a combination of low and often negative natural population change and a continuing outmigration

21 Demography and European cohesion policy programmes

22 How does it work? Community Strategic Guidelines (1) Decided by the Member States on a proposal from the European Commission National Strategic Reference Frameworks (27) Decided by each Member State. Commission decides number of programmes and level of finance Operational Programmes (434) Proposed by the Member States, decided by the Commission.

23 How does Cohesion Policy relate to demography: maintaining the labour force? Improves access to services, including health care (number of healthy life years) Improves education and training (productivity) Improves the economic integration of foreign born (increase activity rates; reduce black economy) Improves connections and cooperation (reducing pressure to move)

24 Cohesion Policy programmes and demography: Priorities in the Community Strategic Guidelines Flexi-curity: attract and retain more people in employment and modernise social protection systems, improve adaptability of workers and enterprises and the flexibility of the labour markets, increase investment in human capital through better education and skills help maintain a healthy labour force

25 1. More people in employment Implement employment policies aimed at achieving full employment, improving quality and productivity at work, and strengthening social and territorial cohesion. Promote a life-cycle approach to work. Ensure inclusive labour markets, enhance work attractiveness, and make work pay for job- seekers, including disadvantaged people, and the inactive. Improve matching of labour market needs.

26 2. Adaptability of workers and enterprises Promote flexibility combined with employment security, and reduce labour market segmentation, having due regard to the role of the social partners. Ensure employment-friendly labour cost developments and wage-setting mechanisms.

27 3. Invest in human capital Expand and improve investment in human capital. Adapt education and training systems in response to new competence requirements.

28 4. A healthy labour force Preventing health risks to help raise productivity levels by –means of health information campaigns and –ensuring a transfer of knowledge and technology –improving health services Filling the gaps in health infrastructure and promoting efficient provision of services including through telemedicine and e-health services.

29 Europe 2020 Follows up the Lisbon Strategy (2005) Three key areas of focus: –Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation. –Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more competitive economy. –Inclusive growth: fostering a high- employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion.

30 Europe 2020 An agenda for new skills and jobs to modernise labour markets and empower people by developing their of skills throughout the lifecycle with a view to increasing labour participation and better match labour supply and demand, including through labour mobility.

31 Europe 2020 target The employment rate of the population aged should increase from the current 69% to at least 75%, including through the greater involvement of women, older workers and the better integration of migrants in the work force;

32 Europe 2020 target Reduce the share of early school leavers to 10% from the current 15% increase the share of the population aged having completed tertiary education from 31% to at least 40%.

33 Conclusion A new agenda post-2013? –Improving productivity and education –Raising employment rates, including those of migrants and marginalised groups –Improving health care –Improving connections to where people live

34 For more information… Thank you for your attention