1. www.framtidsstudier.se

2. Assessing the capacity of the Agenda 2020 to to carry ‘social investment’ ideals Joakim Palme Institute for Futures Studies www.iffs.se

3. Agenda for a social investment approach Go beyond immediate responses to the current crisis not to reproduce the failures of the recent past. Global crisis in the financial system should change our views on what is possible. How can we rethink the European future with the time horizon being prolonged by the issue of climate change? Human capital investments have been getting less attention in the debate. Diversity, feasibility and relevance of the social investment strategy in Europe.

4. Social investment and learning No way around; investment today less resources for consumption today. Possible or not to extract the necessary taxes now and in the future will depend on what people want, and probably on international co-operation. A balanced approach: a synthesis involving a concern with the way that the social investment supports different groups in society and a realistic view of how society works. ‘Learning’ as a part of European integration carries a great - but largely under-utilized - potential.

5. Europe 2020

6. Five headline targets are defined. Raise the employment rate of the population aged 20-64 from the current 69% to at least 75%. Achieve the target of investing 3% of GDP in R&D in particular by improving the conditions for R&D investment by the private sector, and develop a new indicator to track innovation. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% compared to 1990 levels or by 30% if the conditions are right, increase the share of renewable energy in our final energy consumption to 20%, and achieve a 20% increase in energy efficiency. Reduce the share of early school leavers to 10% from the current 15% and increase the share of the population aged 30-34 having completed tertiary education from 31% to at least 40%. Reduce the number of Europeans living below national poverty lines by 25%, lifting 20 million people out of poverty.

7. The seven flagship initiatives to realise the targets "Innovation Union" to to finance for research and innovation to be turned into products "Youth on the move" to enhance the performance of education systems and to facilitate the entry of young people to the labour market. "A digital agenda for Europe" to speed up the roll-out of high-speed internet and reap the benefits of a digital single market for households and firms. "Resource efficient Europe" to help decouple economic growth from the use of resources, support the shift towards a low carbon economy, increase the use of renewable energy sources, modernise our transport sector and promote energy efficiency. "An industrial policy for the globalisation era" to improve the business environment, notably for SMEs, and to support the development of a strong and sustainable industrial base able to compete globally. "An agenda for new skills and jobs" to modernise labour markets and empower people by developing their of skills throughout the lifecycle with a view to increase labour participation and better match labour supply and demand, including through labour mobility. "European platform against poverty" to ensure social and territorial cohesion such that the benefits of growth and jobs are widely shared and people experiencing poverty and social exclusion are enabled to live in dignity and take an active part in society.

8. EU 2020 Agenda Focus on the expanding sectors of the knowledge-based economy; innovation Employment targets; gender neutral Skills, and educational attainment Social inclusion; primarily in poverty terms

9. Flaws of the EU 2020 Agenda Focus on expenditure cuts, instead of increasing the revenue, might block potential of social investment approach Missing targets concerning secondary education, Sustainability of social protection Poverty focus without meaningful targets

10. Political economy of social investment European social models are attempts to apply ‘strategies of cooperation’, time to revitalise Social investment approach is unattainable and elusive, unless boldness and willingness to take political and other risks

11. The strategy EU2020 puts forward three priorities: Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation. Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more competitive economy. Inclusive growth: fostering a high- employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion.

12. Economic policy context Baumol’s dilemma Wagner’s law Ageing populations Reproduction as a social dilemma Distributional conflict in inegalitarian societies

13. Research agenda Key concepts and their relationships Social citizenship Social investment Social inclusion Social capital Social cohesion