DOE Peer Review May 10, 2006 Golden, CO Walt Musial Leader-Offshore Projects National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Wind

DOE Offshore Wind Program History

Current Status of Offshore Industry  Offshore 804-MW out of over 60,000- MW world-wide – less than 2%  Offshore has affected current onshore systems  Offshore will continue to influence European markets.

Studie/Studie_WindEnergy_en.htm?menu=Visitor Predicted Growth of German Wind Energy Markets

Land-based wind sites are not close to coastal load centers Load centers are close to offshore wind sites Two market approach is needed Graphic Credit: Bruce Bailey AWS Truewind Why Offshore Wind in the US? Graphic Credit: GE Energy % area class 3 or above US Population Concentration U.S. Wind Resource

U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Opportunity U.S. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Resource Resource Not Yet Assessed

Offshore Resources Assumptions Current 0-5nm excluded 5-20nm 67% exclusion 20-50nm 33% exclusion Alaska and Hawaii not included SC to Mexico excluded Class 4 not included No state boundaries Updates in progress New maps by AWS Truewind Exclusions not assumed Resource by 10-m depths All States (except FL, AL) State boundaries Distance from Shore  0-3nm – State waters  3-6nm – MMS/State zone  6-12nm – MMS High Viewshed  12-50nm – Low Viewshed

Wind Energy Cost Trends 1981: 40 cents/kWh Increased Turbine Size R&D Advances Manufacturing Improvements 2006: cents/kWh 2012: 3.6 cents/kWh 2006: 9.5 cents/kWh 2014: 5 cents/kWh Multi-megawatt Turbines High reliability systems Infrastructure Improvements Land-basedOffshore

Coastal Energy Prices Are Higher with no Significant Indigenous Sources

DOE/NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program: Approach Offshore Industry European Wind Energy Experience DOE Offshore Wind Energy Program

Offshore Oil and Gas Industry: The Link to Offshore Wind Energy

Offshore Industry Collaborations are Essential MMS regulatory authority Offshore industry needs to diversify IEC insufficient for structural certification Infrastructure owned by offshore industry 50 years of offshore experience

Joint Activities with Offshore Industry Minerals Management Service DOE/MMS Memorandum of Understanding Advisory Relationships Established Proposed Rulemaking Comments Scoping Meetings – Upcoming

Joint Activities with Offshore Industry Joint Industry Project –Purpose: Determine requirements for offshore safety and certification. –Participants: US Offshore Wind Developers, Offshore construction, DOE, MMS Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) –Wind Session 150 attended –Invited for 2007 –High level of interest SeaCon Studies

DOE/NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program: Approach Offshore Industry European Wind Energy Experience DOE Offshore Wind Energy Program

European Collaborations NREL/RISO C0-Operating Agents for New International Energy Agency Offshore Annex – XXIII. Eight Active Countries

OC3 Slide of results

Horns Rev- Corner turbine enhancements? Wind Direction Offshore array modeling and analysis can open new siting options both offshore and onshore

Offshore Wind Cost Elements Offshore turbine 33% of the life cycle cost vs. 59% onshore derived from NREL cost model and CA-OWEE report 2001 Most of an offshore wind project will come from offshore industry engineering, construction and support services

Substructure Energy per Area Turbine Costs Installation Operation and Maintenance Grid and Electrical Infrastructure 1 Why Offshore Turbines Will Get Bigger High capacity offshore infrastructure enables larger machines.

Deep Water Wind Turbine Development Current Technology 4 to 18 meters depth up to 14 km from shore Offshore Wind Technology Development Path 90.1 GW>500 GW GW

Offshore Technology Pathway Strategy Laboratory SeaCon (Subcontracts)

Simplify

Sea-Based Concept Studies (SeaCon) DOE/NREL sponsored studies underway: Objectives: – Use offshore O&G experience - form partnerships – Define requirements for infrastructure and technology – Narrow focus on best technology options – Establish basis for test bed and system development

SeaCon Studies Connectivity

Transitional Depth Foundations 30-m to 60-m Depths Tripod Tube Steel Guyed Tube Spaceframe, Jacket, or Truss Talisman Energy Concept Suction Bucket 200 GW potential

Floating Foundations >60-m Depths Dutch tri- floater Barge SparMono-hull TLP Concept Marine Associates Concrete TLP SWAY >500 GW potential

Offshore Blade Cost is Low Relative to Total Project  All of the energy Cost of Energy Can we afford more expensive rotors?  Most of the loads  4% of the cost

Regulatory and Environmental Drivers for first offshore wind projects in US. New regulatory paradigm in process at MMS Environmental basis  European experience  Cape Wind DEIS  Onshore experience  No major environmental impacts found Public acceptance – reservations due to uncertainty and viewshed

Summary Two market approach for wind Two market approach for wind Offshore: European driven Offshore: European driven U.S. resource potential near 1000-GW U.S. resource potential near 1000-GW Near term US offshore experience needed Near term US offshore experience needed Environmental, regulatory, and public perceptions are drivers in US. Environmental, regulatory, and public perceptions are drivers in US. Further R&D is necessary to lower costs Further R&D is necessary to lower costs Offshore O&G industry experience is essential Offshore O&G industry experience is essential Wind can potentially supply 20% of electric energy in United States