1. 15ELP044 – Unit 4 Uncertainty, Risk & Energy Systems Paul Rowley & Simon Watson CREST Loughborough University

2. Content In this unit, we will: Briefly explore approaches to modelling uncertainty Examine some case studies. Due diligence is the process by which the risk involved in an investment is evaluated.

3. Definitions Investment risk is the deviation of actual return from expected return. Uncertainty refers to the unpredictability of known possible future outcomes. Due diligence is the process by which the risk involved in an investment is evaluated.

4. The System Lifecycle Systems progress through a lifecycle starting with a concept, and progresses through a service life to eventual disposal Revenue from a generation system appears during the service life Costs are incurred from inception to the completion of the disposal process, or further if a continuing liability exists. ISO/IEC BS15288

5. The System Lifecycle

6. Predicting the Future – Bayes Theorem

9. Case study 1 – Tidal Stream Technology Yell Sound, Shetland Fictional precommercial array Ten 250kW oscillating hydroplanes

10. Tidal Stream Generating sub-system

11. Case study – Tidal Stream

13. Uncertainty, Risk & Energy Systems Case study 2: Energy & Buildings

14. Problem:  Widespread & significant under-estimates of predicted building energy and carbon performance  In general, existing design & compliance modelling approaches are not ‘fit-for-purpose’  Impact of ‘human factors’ and technical risk poorly understood  Needs to be addressed – otherwise, forget our GHG and energy performance targets! 2a: The Building Energy Performance Gap

15. The Building Performance Gap The Building Energy Performance Gap

16. Source - Carbon Buzz The Building Energy Performance Gap

17. Source - Carbon Buzz The Building Energy Performance Gap

18. Source - Carbon Buzz The Building Energy Performance Gap

19. Data-driven Modelling  UK government funded ‘sustainable exemplar’  7,500m 2 mixed use (offices, public spaces…)  Timber frame fabric  Gas/EAHP/mech vent  Comprehensive wireless monitoring

20. Case study – Sub-system analysis Comparison of modelled and monitored sub-system energy use

21. Data-driven Modelling Condensing temp Boiler Return Water Temperature Distribution ?? Boiler Efficiency Distribution

22. Data-driven Modelling Gas Boiler – Sub-system analysis

23. Data-driven Modelling

24. 2b: Social Impact Modelling under Uncertainty

25. Impact of PV on Household Energy Costs

27. Probabilistic Outcome

28. 2c: Solar Thermal Performance: Measured Data

29. Solar Thermal Performance - Measured Data

30. Causes of performance variation System size Orientation Inclination Shading Competency of installer Insulation DHW profile DHW volume Auxiliary timing Interplay between DHW profile, aux. timing and available solar energy Technical Factors Non-technical Factors

31. Uncertainty, Risk & Energy Systems Case Study 3: Offshore Wind: London Array

32. Case Study – Offshore Wind The Potential Targets The Challenge Case Study: London Array The Future

33. UK Offshore Wind Speed Map (100m) Good onshore site ~7.5m/s mean annual wind speed at hub height For many of the offshore sites being developed: >10m/s

34. UK & EU Targets EU: 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2020 UK: 15% of energy from renewable sources by 2020 Latest DECC roadmap estimates 13GW wind onshore and 18GW offshore by 2020 2015: 8.5GW onshore, 5.1GW offshore Total UK system generating capacity: ~80GW

35. Crown Estates Development Sites 3 Development Rounds Water depths up to ~35m

36. The Challenge Installation – vessels, size of machines Sea bed – composition, depth Access - >100km from coast for some sites Reliability Hostile conditions – wind and wave Operations and maintenance Grid connection

37. Onshore Reliability and Downtime

38. The London Array © Siemens

39. Facts and Figures Offshore area of 100km 2 20km from shore Sea depth <25m 175 x 3.6MW Siemens wind turbines Two offshore & one onshore substation Nearly 450km of offshore cabling 630MW total installed capacity Capital cost ~£1.8billion ~£2.9million/MW Estimated LCOE~11p/kWh (CFD strike price ~12pkWh)

40. The Developers and Timescales 50% share30% share20% share Onshore works started July 2009 Offshore works started March 2011 Final turbine installed December 2012 Fully operational April 2013

41. Turbines © London Array Ltd

42. Installation Vessels © London Array Ltd

43. Foundations © London Array Ltd

44. Substations © London Array Ltd

45. Offshore wind – Managing Uncertainty and Risk Better understanding of the offshore environment Bigger more reliable turbines, health monitoring New materials, e.g. superconducting generators Different drive train configurations, e.g. direct drive, multiple drive trains More sophisticated control to reduce loads Holistic control – make more like a ‘power station’ HVDC vs HVAC, North Sea grid