The Emotional Brain, Joseph LeDoux, Simon&Schuster, 1996

Bounded Rationality When we don’t have all the time, all the information, or all the intellectual ability to make a completely fact-based analytical decision. When we don’t have all the time, all the information, or all the intellectual ability to make a completely fact-based analytical decision. (Models of Bounded Rationality, Herbert Simon, MIT Press, 1982)

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING Optimism Bias It won’t happen to me Optimism Bias It won’t happen to me Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

"How concerned are you about the possibility there will be more major terrorist attacks in the U. S.? Does that worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not at all?” A Great Deal Somewhat Not Too Much Not at All 29% 45% 17% 8% 29% 45% 17% 8% "How concerned are you about the chance that you personally might be the victim of a terrorist attack? Does that worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not at all?” A Great Deal Somewhat Not Too Much Not at All 10% 25% 35 % 29% 10% 25% 35 % 29% ABC News 9/5-7/06

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING Optimism Bias It won’t happen to me Framing How the issue is initially described Optimism Bias It won’t happen to me Framing How the issue is initially described Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING Representativeness Applying partial information by fitting it into existing patterns. Representativeness Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING Anchoring and Adjustment. Our judgment depends on where an initial value is set. Anchoring and Adjustment. Our judgment depends on where an initial value is set. Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING Anchoring and Adjustment 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = ? Anchoring and Adjustment 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = ? Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING Anchoring and Adjustment 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 x 9 = ? Anchoring and Adjustment 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 x 9 = ? Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING Loss Aversion Equivalent loss and gain don’t feel the same. Loss Aversion Equivalent loss and gain don’t feel the same. Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

TWO INTERVENTIONS FOR TREATING A POTENTIALLY LETHAL HEALTH CONDITION. Program A 90% SHORT-TERM SURVIVAL RATE Program A 90% SHORT-TERM SURVIVAL RATE Program B 100,000 PEOPLE OUT OF A MILLION WILL DIE IMMEDIATELY Program B 100,000 PEOPLE OUT OF A MILLION WILL DIE IMMEDIATELY

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING The Fallacy of the Small Sample The Fallacy of the Small Sample Problems with probability Problems with probability The Fallacy of the Small Sample The Fallacy of the Small Sample Problems with probability Problems with probability Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING Which sequence of Heads or Tails is more likely? A. H T H T H T H T H T H T H T B. H H T H T T H T T T H H H T Which sequence of Heads or Tails is more likely? A. H T H T H T H T H T H T H T B. H H T H T T H T T T H H H T Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING Awareness (The Ready Recall Effect) The more quickly you can call something to consciousness the more influence it has on your judgments Awareness (The Ready Recall Effect) The more quickly you can call something to consciousness the more influence it has on your judgments Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

INNUMERACY Which risk is greater? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000 1 in 10 Which risk is greater? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000 1 in 10

INNUMERACY IF THE ODDS OF WINNING A LOTTERY ARE 1 IN 1,000, WHAT PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO PLAY THE LOTTERY WIN IF THE ODDS OF WINNING A LOTTERY ARE 1 IN 1,000, WHAT PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO PLAY THE LOTTERY WIN

INNUMERACY IF ONE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLAY A LOTTERY WIN, AND 1000 PEOPLE PLAY, HOW MANY PEOPLE WIN? IF ONE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLAY A LOTTERY WIN, AND 1000 PEOPLE PLAY, HOW MANY PEOPLE WIN?

INNUMERACY 1. Which is the bigger risk? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10 1 IN 10 (1 IN 5 WERE WRONG) 2. 1 in 1,000, =.001, expressed as a percentage = …..1% (8 IN 10 WERE WRONG) 3. 1% of 1,000 = …. 10 (4 IN 10 WERE WRONG) 10 (4 IN 10 WERE WRONG) (80 % OF TEST SUBJECTS HAD A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR ABOVE. 1. Which is the bigger risk? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10 1 IN 10 (1 IN 5 WERE WRONG) 2. 1 in 1,000, =.001, expressed as a percentage = …..1% (8 IN 10 WERE WRONG) 3. 1% of 1,000 = …. 10 (4 IN 10 WERE WRONG) 10 (4 IN 10 WERE WRONG) (80 % OF TEST SUBJECTS HAD A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR ABOVE.

Cultural Cognition Humans are social animals Tribe success = OUR success BIRG/ CORF

Cultural Cognition Four basic preferences for how society is supposed to operate. how society is supposed to operate. Individualist  Communitarian Hierarchist  Egalitarian Hierarchist  Egalitarian

Cultural Cognition Rank yourself from 1 – means you absolutely disagree. 10 means you absolutely agree. Write your answers down somewhere. You‘ll need to add them 1. The government interferes too much in our everyday lives. 2. Government needs to make laws that keep people from hurting themselves. 3. The government should stop telling people how to live their lives. 4. The government should do more to advance society's goals, even if that means limiting the freedom and choices of individuals. 5. Too many people today expect society to do things for them that they should have to do for themselves. 6. People should be able to rely on the government for help when they need it. 7. Society works best when it lets individuals take responsibility for their own lives without telling them what to do. without telling them what to do. 8. It's society's responsibility to make sure everyone's basic needs are met. 9. People who are successful in business have a right to enjoy their wealth as they see fit. 10. Taxes should be higher on the wealthy as a fair way of getting them to share the benefits society gives them.

Cultural Cognition Rank yourself from 1 – means you absolutely disagree. 10 means you absolutely agree. Write your answers down somewhere. You‘ll need to add them up. 1. Our society would be better off if the distribution of wealth was more equal. 2. Nowadays there is as much discrimination against whites as against blacks. 3. We need to dramatically reduce inequalities between the rich and the poor, whites and people of color, and men and women. 4. It seems like blacks, women, homosexuals and other groups don't want equal rights, they want special rights just for them. 5. It's old-fashioned and wrong to think that one culture's set of values is better than any other culture's way of seeing the world. 6. The women's rights movement has gone too far. 7. We live in a sexist society fundamentally set up to discriminate against women. 8. A lot of problems in our society today come from the decline in the traditional family, where the man works and the woman stays home. 9. Parents should encourage young boys to be more sensitive and less rough and tough. 10. Society as a whole has become too soft.

Cultural Cognition More accurately predicted positions than liberal/conservative political self-identification on issues such as; Climate change, raising the minimum wage, mandatory cervical cancer vaccine, mad cow mandatory cervical cancer vaccine, mad cow disease, gun control, abortion, estate tax, capital disease, gun control, abortion, estate tax, capital punishment, universal health care, warrantless punishment, universal health care, warrantless wiretapping, nuclear power, nanotechnology wiretapping, nuclear power, nanotechnologyhttp://

Cultural Cognition and perception of risks and benefits from nanotechnology

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