WHO IS STAYING AND FOR HOW LONG: RE-MIGRATION OF CANADA’S IMMIGRANTS IN THE 1990s Margaret Michalowski Claude Grenier Demography Division Statistics Canada Canadian Population Society Annual Meetings Toronto, May 30 - June 1, 2002

PLAN ò Setting the background l Why re-migration of immigrants is important to Canada l What do we know about re-migration of immigrants ò Changing international context ò How Canadian immigrants are behaving l Return migration trend from Canada in the 1990s l Recency of arrival and propensity to return l Country of origin vs. propensity to return ò Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S.

, , , , , ,000 Why re-migration of immigrants is important During the 1990s, immigration added 7 out of 10 persons to Canadian population growth % of population growth Immigration/Population growth Immigrants Numbers

What do we know about re-migration of immigrants  Low immigration  high emigration? ò Re-migration is related to country of origin and other personal characteristics (age, sex, occupation) ò First 5 years after arrival are critical ò Longer stays produce less emigration

Changing international context ò Globalization ò Trade agreements Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, 1989 North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994 Asia - rapid economic development ò Further diversification of origins of Canadian immigrants

 20 years years < 15 years Immigration from Asia during the 1980s and 1990s has significantly altered the ethnic composition of the Canadian foreign-born population 1996 Census All others 22.6 Asia 39.6 Europe 19.3 UK 12.4 US 6.1 % %  20 years years < 15 years 1981 Census All others 9.8 Asia 8.5 Europe 51.9 UK 23.7 US

Estimation Model for Emigration of Immigrants DEPARTURES OF IMMIGRANTS during cohort Before 1991 cohort Adjustment for mortality Adjustment for coverage immigrants Immigrant population 1996 Census 1991 Census C.I.C. Immigrant population Adjustment for coverage Immigrated before 1991 Immigrated

Overall levels of re-migration: to Recent immigrant cohorts - immigrated during the same period as their emigration period “Older” immigrant cohorts - immigrated prior to the period of their emigration Period of emigration Foreign-born emigrants147, , ,000 Recent cohorts 53,000 50, ,000 "Older" cohorts 94, , ,000 All emigrants*341, , ,000 Temporarily abroad53,000 84, ,000 Emigrated288, , ,000 * Census Coverage Study estimates

Overall, re-migration of immigrants has slowed down during the beginning of the 1990s; however, for Asian and African immigrants the opposite is true % Central/South America/ Caribbean EuropeAfricaAsiaOceania Total = 5.7 Total = 4.8 ‘86-’91‘91-’ ‘86-’91‘91-’96‘86-’91‘91-’96‘86-’91‘91-’96‘86-’91‘91-’96

During , among the top source countries, recent cohorts of immigrants had several times higher propensity to re-migrate than the “older” cohorts did; immigrants from the U.S. and Poland are exceptions U.S.El SalvadorU.K.PolandLebanonChinaHong KongPhilippinesVietnamIndia % Recent cohorts “Older” cohorts All countries, recent cohort, 10.1 All countries, “old” cohort, 2.7 Immigrants in (‘000)

Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S. With the exception of the 1970s, re-migration of Canadian immigrants, relative to immigration, was higher than that of American immigrants 1,175, ,000 5,766,000 1,553,000 17,916,000 4,451,000 1,331, ,000 7,869,000 1,950,000 1,440, ,000 4,334,000 1,176,000 1,420, ,000 3,213, ,000 1,575, ,000 2,500, ,000 EM/IMM EM/IMM CanadaU.S. Immigrants Foreign-born Emigrants Immigrants Foreign-born Emigrants Period Total

Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S. Contrary to Canada’s immigrants, recent cohorts of U.S. immigrants have lower re-migration rates than old cohorts Canada U.S Recent cohortOld cohort Recent cohort Old cohort All Males Females Annual re-migration rate (%)

Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S. In the 1980s, Americans were leaving Canada more often than Canadians were U.S. Departures (annual) Americans from Canada ,400 or 3.4% or 0.8% Canadians from U.S ,000 or 1.4% ?

What next? ò More personal characteristics (age, education, occupation) ò More detailed analysis of impact of length of residence in Canada ò Pre-immigration experience ò Expand the period up to 2001 ò Destination of re-migration - U.S. vs. other countries