1. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division Collecting information on emigration at the census Enrico Bisogno Social and Demographic Statistics Section UNECE

2. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 2 Emigration Can we measure emigration using the population census?

3. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 3 Emigration We can say: NO The census cannot be a tool to have a complete count of emigration

4. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 4 Emigration … however the census can provide useful information on some groups of emigrants. Let’s see what has been done at 2000 Census Round and what we can learn

5. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 5 Emigration What are the questions we are trying to answer?

6. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 6 Emigration  How many nationals/previous residents are living abroad?  What are the main countries of destination  How long have been emigrants absent from the country of origin?  What are the main reasons for moving abroad?  What is the social-demographic profile of the emigrants?  Do the emigrants intend to return back?  Do the emigrants have economic ties with the original household?

7. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 7 Emigration: some countries tried…. Georgia 2002 Tunisia 2004 Panama 1990 Used a special module for household members who left the country during a period before the census Nepal 1981 El Salvador 1992 Guatemala 1994 Dominican Republic 1992 Venezuela 1990 Used a special module for household members living abroad regardless of when they left the country Moldova 2004 Poland 2002 Singapore 2000 Included specific questions in the census form, as any other household member (emigrants identified in data processing)

8. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 8 Focus on 4 countries GeorgiaTunisiaMoldovaPoland Date of censusJan. 2002April 2004Oct. 2004May 2002 Resident Population4.372.0009.911.0003.383.000 38.230.000 Emigrants114.00076.000273.000786.000 Ratio emigrants/resident population 2,6%0,8%8,1%2,1%

9. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 9 Outline of analysis 1. Count of emigrants vs. population count 2. Accuracy of emigration count 3. Lessons learnt

10. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 10 Georgia (2002) Target group : Previous household members who left the country after 1991 Absent from Georgia for 12 months or longer Respondents :  Any adult member of the household  Relatives, neighbours, administrative authorities

11. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 11 Georgia: census module for emigrants Questions asked:  Demographic-social characteristics: Relationship to reference person, sex, date of birth, place of birth, education, nationality  Date of emigration  Country of emigration and currently living  Reason of emigration  Economic support:  family  emigrant and emigrant  family  Intention to return

12. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 12 Tunisia (2004) Target group: Persons who at the time of the census:  abroad for 6 months or longer  member of the family nucleus 5 years before the census Respondents: Members of the family nucleus (spouse and unmarried children)

13. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 13 Tunisia: census module for emigrants Questions asked:  Demographic-social characteristics: sex, date and country of birth, country of citizenship  Relationship to reference person  Date of emigration  Reason to move  Country of destination

14. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 14 Moldova (2004) Target group:  Permanent resident registered in the country  Person ‘temporarily’ abroad (regardless of the duration and reason of absence) Respondents:  Household members of the absent person

15. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 15 Moldova: questions in the census questionnaire Questions asked in the individual questionnaire:  At 12:00 a.m. of census day the person was: o Temporarily absent, and left on _______ o In other locality of the country o Abroad (please indicate the country: ________________)  Reason: o For work o For study o Other reason  Absence duration: o Less than one year o More than one year (please indicate the year when left: ________________)

16. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 16 Poland (2002) Target group:  Permanent resident registered in Poland  Person ‘temporarily’ staying abroad for  2 months (regardless of the period of stay) Respondents:  Family members of the absent person  Persons living with the absentee before his/her departure  Neighbours

17. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 17 Poland: questions in the census questionnaire Questions asked in the individual questionnaire):  Do you live here permanently and were you present or absent on census reference day or do you stay here temporarily? o Live permanently – present o Live permanently – absent stay in other place in Poland o Live permanently – absent stay abroad o Stay temporarily – arrived from other place in Poland o Stay temporarily – arrived from abroad  What is the real duration of your absence or staying? o Up to 2 months o Between 2 and 6 months o Between 6 and 12 months o 12 months and more  What is the reason of your absence or staying? o Education o Work o Family reasons o ……………………

18. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 18 Two main typologies  Georgia and Tunisia: separate module  Moldova and Poland: questions in the main questionnaire

19. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 19 Different impact on population count  Georgia and Tunisia: emigrants excluded from population count  Moldova and Poland: emigrants included from population count

20. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 20 What is the good practice? The first goal of the census is the count the resident population …therefore practices applied in:  Georgia and Tunisia: were OK  Moldova and Poland: were NOT OK

21. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 21 Accuracy of emigration count How to assess if these modules /questions were successful to count emigrants? Data obtained from the census compared with data collected in receiving countries

22. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 22 Main destination countries

23. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 23 Poland

24. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 24 Moldova: Age composition of emigrants from Moldova and citizens of Moldova residents of the Russian Federation

25. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 25 Moldova: emigrants from Moldova residing in Italy by length of absence (Moldavian and Italian data)

26. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 26 Poland: emigrants by year of migration

27. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 27 Tunisia

28. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 28 Tunisia Note: * data from Italy do not cover minors

29. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 29 Tunisia: looking a bit deeper….. Ratio between sources (1)/(2), by sex

30. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 30 Tunisia

31. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 31 Lessons learnt Data collection worked well for emigrants that:  Had left the country in the years just before the census (up to 5 yrs.)  Are more likely to keep close ties with the country (Polish data were better for Italy and Germany than for emigrants in the US or Canada)  Are members of the family nucleus that is left behind (e.g. Tunisian males)  Are still included in an administrative register (Poland)

32. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 32 Lessons learnt  The shorter is the duration the better  The more confined is the group of emigrants to count, the better (ex: members of family nucleus)  Better results expected when ties exist between emigrants and family members  The modules/questions do not seem to work well to count a broad group of emigrants

33. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 33 To conclude…  It’s fundamental to keep separate the count of population from the count of emigrants (persons residing abroad for 1 year or more)  The census cannot provide a good estimate of the total number of emigrants living abroad  It’s important to identify what group of emigrants we can reasonably count in a census. (For example, those having left the country in the last years and having close family ties)  Are the emigrants that we CAN count of interest for policy making?

34. UNECE Statistical Division Slide 34 To conclude…  An emigration module can provide important information, not on the total count, but on other aspects (geographical distribution of emigrants, information on households left behind, reason of migration, socio-economic characteristics)  Accurate test of questions/module is necessary (use experience of other countries)  Choice of respondents is fundamental (undercounting vs. overcounting)  Use of data from receiving countries is a good source for total counts