Drought Monitoring: Challenges in the Western United States

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Presentation transcript:

Drought Monitoring: Challenges in the Western United States Brian Fuchs, Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln The Climate Impacts Group Annual Fall Forecasting Meeting October 22, 2009 Boise, Idaho

The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal partners

The Drought Monitor Concept A partnership between the NDMC, USDA and NOAA’s CPC, NCDC, and RCC’s (authors) Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC’s, SC’s, federal/state agencies, etc.) (experts) The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and provides a general up-to-date summary of current drought conditions across the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the Pacific possessions

The Drought Monitor Concept A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map Trying to capture these characteristics: the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity) spatial extent probability of occurrence Impacts Rates drought intensity by Percentile Rankings

Original Objectives “Fujita-like” scale NOT a forecast! NOT a drought declaration! Identify impacts (A, H) Assessment of current conditions Incorporate local expert input Be as objective as possible

Drought Intensity Categories U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile) D1 Drought – Moderate (20%tile) D2 Drought – Severe (10%tile) D3 Drought – Extreme (5%tile) D4 Drought – Exceptional (2%tile)

Key Variables For Monitoring Drought climate data soil moisture stream flow ground water reservoir and lake levels snow pack short, medium, and long range forecasts vegetation health/stress and fire danger

U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Indicators: Integrates Key - Palmer Drought Index - SPI - KBDI Modeled Soil Moisture - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow - Precipitation Anomalies Growing Season: - Crop Moisture Index - Sat. Veg. Health Index Soil Moisture Mesonet data In The West: - SWSI - Reservoir levels Snowpack Streamflow Created in ArcGIS

Indices for “The West”

Principal Drought Monitor Inputs USGS Streamflow CPC Daily Soil Model Palmer Drought Index SPI Drought Index USDA Soil Ratings Satellite Veg Health

Use of the DM in Decision Making USDA Dried Milk Program 2002-03 USDA CRP Release hot spot trigger Numerous states use as a drought trigger (Governor’s declarations) 2006 USDA Livestock Assistance 2006 IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses)

Challenges? NRCS Data (RAWS & SNOTEL) Basin Data State Data Data Density Basin Data SWSI not being calculated for all basins State Data Well/Reservoir Data sets not centralized Climate Change Population Shifts New Efforts ? California Drought Tracker

WASHINGTON –Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne has approved $9 WASHINGTON –Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne has approved $9.2 million in Water 2025 Challenge Grants for water conservation projects across the West. The grants will help fund 44 projects in 11 states. Including the matching contributions of non-federal partners, the selected projects represent a combined investment of more than $32 million in water management improvements. July 26, 2007 www.doi.gov/water2025.

Stresses on Western Water Population Projections (2000-2030) Greatest increases expected in the driest states. Source: U.S. Census Bureau NEEDS: FRESH WATER! Western populations expected to grow. Major reservoir construction unlikely. Continued increases in power likely. Need to manage what we have better. Track climate (SNOTEL) and make informed decisions before it is too late!

It’s all about the water!

Thank you! Please visit us at: http://drought.unl.edu/ Please contact me at: bfuchs2@unl.edu