1. 1 NOAA Briefing for the Western Congressional Caucus Providing New National Capabilities to Anticipate, Prepare for, and Respond to Drought Randall M. Dole, NOAA Research Martin Hoerling, NOAA Research Douglas Lecomte, NOAA National Weather Service September 27, 2004 Introduction Dust storm during the 1930s Drought North Platte river, May 22, 2002 Mean flow - 1310 cfs, Observed - 0

2. 2 Why should we care? 1988 Drought ($61.9B) 1980 Drought ($48.4B) 2002 Drought ($10.0B) A bottom-line issue: Although determining the full economic impacts of drought is difficult, annual losses in the USA are estimated to be several billion dollars.

3. 3 Why now 1 Why Now? The Western Drought “Whiskey is for Drinking and Water is for Fighting” - Mark Twain. “Water is life” - Wallace Stegner.  The severe drought gripping the western U.S. has raised: Public and media attention Management concerns including the possibility for the first-ever “call” on the Colorado River under the terms of the Colorado River Compact.  There are new concerns for the sustainability of western U.S. water resources to meet growing demands Does this drought foretell climate change ? Dillon Reservoir, 2002

4. 4 President Bush directs that research activities provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and decision making on climate issues President Bush directs that research activities provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and decision making on climate issues (US Climate Change Science Program [CCSP], July, 2003). The U.S. CCSP identifies drought as a key science challenge. “Drought Preparedness” Acts have been introduced in the House and Senate. Western Governors’ propose a National Integrated Drought Information System. Department of Interior identifies potential for water supply crises by 2025 Department of Interior identifies potential for water supply crises by 2025 New Mandates for Science Information

5. 5 To deliver sound scientific information to meet the needs of the public, resource managers and policy-makers in preparing for and responding to drought. Overview Questions: Is the present drought “unprecedented”?Is the present drought “unprecedented”? What are causes for this drought?  natural variability  climate changeWhat are causes for this drought?  natural variability  climate change What is the prognosis for western drought?What is the prognosis for western drought? What is NOAA doing to improve national capabilities to better anticipate and prepare for droughts?What is NOAA doing to improve national capabilities to better anticipate and prepare for droughts? Following the overview, we will provide an open forum to respond to any additional information needs or questions you have regarding drought. Briefing outline NOAA’s Role

6. 6 Is the Current Western Drought Unprecedented?

7. 7 A Hydrological Drought Lake Powell Water Level (ft) Filled 1980 Lake Powell is at 40% capacity Lake levels have dropped ~ 120 feet Reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 60% of capacity Net flow of water for WY 2004 to date is 58% of average. Glen Canyon Dam

8. 8 5-Year Precipitation Deficits 15 to 20 inches in some areas 15 to 20 inches in some areas

9. 9 Palmer Drought Index- area in severe drought PDSI time series -area coverage Western U.S. 1895-2004 1930s “Dust bowl” Colorado River Compact Signed 2002

10. 10 Reconstructions of Western Drought Droughts over the past two millennia dwarf anything in the modern instrumental record.

11. 11 U.S. Drought Monitor Derived by synthesizing various information sources (NOAA CPC, NCDC, with USDA and NDMC) A large scale product. Agricultural (A), hydrological (H) designate primary impacts (drought types). Manifold indirect impacts, e.g., on recreation, energy production, water quality, fire risk, air quality, ecosystems, endangered species. U.S. Drought Monitor.

12. 12 What are the causes for this drought ?

13. 13 Western U.S. Precipitation 1950 to 2004

14. 14 Role of Oceans in Drought Southwest U.S. El Niño La Niña

15. 15 What is the Prognosis for Western Drought What is the Prognosis for Western Drought?

16. 16 NOAA Extended Precipitation Outlook

17. 17 NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook

18. 18 Likelihood for Recovery of Precipitation Deficits by February 2005 Odds are less than 10% based on past data Odds are less than 10% based on past data

19. 19 Trends in Western Climate

20. 20 Western Precipitation Variations 1950 to 2004 No significant precipitation trend - if anything, slightly wetter. Strong interannual to decadal variability, oceans play a major role.

21. 21 Sources for Western Temperature Trends

22. 22 Trends in Western Stream Flow From Stewart, Cayan, and Dettinger (2004) Trend towards an earlier melt out and earlier peak flows throughout the Western US are consistent with a warming trend. Changes in seasonal cycle have potentially important implications for water management. Both supply and demand are affected.

23. 23 Climate Model Projections for Western U.S. Regional projections have less confidence than global projections Regional projections have less confidence than global projections High model consistency on warming, precipitation highly variable High model consistency on warming, precipitation highly variable

24. 24 What is NOAA doing to Improve National Capabilities to Better Anticipate and Prepare for Droughts What is NOAA doing to Improve National Capabilities to Better Anticipate and Prepare for Droughts?

25. 25 Goal: To enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to droughts. Goal: To enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to droughts. The Western Governors’ Association developed the 2004 report in close partnership with NOAA. Many others contributed. Recent advances in understanding and predicting droughts makes the NIDIS Goal feasible. More must be done to provide a fully useful drought decision-support system. Drought NIDIS National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf “Creating a National Drought Early Warning System”

26. 26 ResearchPredictionMonitoring Impact Mitigation Proactive Planning Improved Responses Customer defined measures of drought Better informed decision making at state, local and individual levels Integrating Tools NIDIS Framework for Enhanced Decision Support

27. 27 Improving and Integrating Observations and Data Systems Developing New Tools for analysis and decision support. Coordinating research and science. Improving information dissemination and feedback. Key NIDIS Components

28. 28 NOAA Climate Services -Contributions from all NOAA Line Offices, Joint Institutes, Regional Integrated Science Assessments, Regional Climate Centers, State Climatologists NOAA Operational Monitoring and Outlooks -Weekly Drought Monitor and Monthly Drought Outlook NOAA Research -Applied climate research to understand and predict drought onset, duration, and impacts NOAA Cooperative Observer Network Modernization -Implementation of a National Mesonet would provide near real time climate, weather, and water observations for resource and emergency management NOAA Programs Supporting the NIDIS Current network has poorest coverage in the West, especially at high elevations where most precipitation falls as snow.

29. 29 New water 2025 “Water is the lifeblood of the American West and the foundation of its economy” (Water 2025: Preventing Crises and Conflict in the West) “Existing water supplies are, or will be inadequate to meet the water demands of people, cities, farms, and the environment” NOAA monitoring, research, and forecast products will provide the nation with new capabilities to anticipate, to prepare for, and to respond to these complex water issues.

30. 30 The End

31. 31 NOAA Seasonal Climate Outlook

32. 32 What would a warmer future climate imply for the mountainous west and adjacent regions, e.g., for water resources, ecosystems, recreation? What are some potential implications? A few possibilities: Less efficient water storage and release. Less efficient water storage and release. Increased vegetative stress - species, ecosystem losses. Increased vegetative stress - species, ecosystem losses. Longer growing season, increased evaporation, and increased demand for already scarce water resources. Longer growing season, increased evaporation, and increased demand for already scarce water resources. Western fires, 2002 19282000 Retreat of South Cascade Glacier, Washington

33. 33 Drought Early Warning through Ocean Monitoring TOA/Triton Moored Array and Argo Floats

34. 34 NA Drought Monitor

35. 35 Drought Monitor Inputs USGS Streamflow CPC Daily Soil Model Satellite Veg Health 30-day Precip. USDA Soil Ratings Palmer Drought Index

36. 36 Average Annual Rainfall

37. 37 Drought - Future Pressures US Bureau of Reclamation analysis of potential water supply crises and conflicts in the western US by the year 2025 based on a combination of technical and other factors, including population trends and potential endangered species needs for water. Note: There is an underlying assumption of a statistically stationary climate.