bree.gov.au Resources and energy—the outlook for Australia Australasian Rail Association Heavy Haul Rail: Newcastle August 2014 Wayne Calder Deputy Executive Director Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE)

bree.gov.au Key messages  Still opportunities for resources and energy exports to emerging economies  Investment in capital formation and growing energy consumption growth will support demand for bulk commodities  Transition to the production phase accelerating  Iron ore and coal are key exports for Australia, and will continue to provide significant earnings over the medium term

bree.gov.au Regional economic growth Sources: IMF; BREE

bree.gov.au China’s GDP Source: IMF China BoomChina Bust??? GFC & Rebound

bree.gov.au Steel production growth to be steady Source: BREE

bree.gov.au China’s monthly steel production

bree.gov.au Australia’s iron ore exports Sources: ABS; BREE

bree.gov.au Australia’s metallurgical coal exports Sources: ABS; BREE

bree.gov.au Contributions to energy demand 2011–35 (%) IEA New Policies Scenario

bree.gov.au Contributions to energy demand 2011–35 (Mtoe) IEA New Policies Scenario

bree.gov.au Power generation in non-OECD Asia IEA New Policies Scenario Source: IEA

bree.gov.au China’s electricity generation Electricity generation has been increasing rapidly and will continue to grow Thermal (coal and gas) sources account for the bulk of generation Inertia in the energy system will prevent any rapid change in generation mix

bree.gov.au Power generation in India IEA New Policies Scenario Source: IEA

bree.gov.au Australia’s thermal coal exports Sources: ABS; BREE

bree.gov.au The production phase to increase export earnings

bree.gov.au Contact Wayne Calder Deputy Executive Director Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics