1. © OECD/IEA 2011 ESDS International Annual Conference Understanding the world: evidence and impact London, 28 November 2011 2009 A year of major changes on the energy scene Jean-Yves Garnier Sharon Burghraeve Energy Statistics Division

2. © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA, 2010 AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprilMayJuneJulyAugSep Questionnaires Processing Databases Publications and CD-ROMS Understanding the world: evidence and impact The need for timely and detailed data Delay: 18 months for detailed data on transformation and consumptionDelay: 6 months for data on energy supply

3. © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA, 2010 Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation) More work passed to statistics offices: More companies to survey (liberalisation) Renewables (remote information) Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data) Environment (estimation of GHG emissions, ….) Etc. Resources do not follow work load: Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts Fast turnover in staff: lack of experience, continuity Fast turnover in staff Why such a long delay in getting proper data

4. © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA, 2010 The past situation in energy statistics offices 20s 40s 30s 50s Retirement age gaining experience passing experience

5. © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA, 2010 20s The current situation efficiency environment modelling Temptation to move away from statistics is high Young statisticians only stay a few years Not enough time to have a full grasp of energy statistics No time to transmit their expertise Temptation to move away from statistics is high Young statisticians only stay a few years Not enough time to have a full grasp of energy statistics No time to transmit their expertise 40s 30s 50s Retirement age policy private sector

6. © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA, 2010 Variation in GDP growth between 2008 and 2009 for selected regions - 2% A few words on the impact of the economic crisis

7. © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA, 2010 Evolution of GDP using purchasing power parity In 2009, for the first time, GDP PPP of non-OECD countries overtook the one of OECD countries However, there is still a major gap in terms of GDP on Market Exchange Rate A few words on the impact of the economic crisis

8. © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA, 2010 Impact of GDP on the world energy consumption Total Primary Energy Supply 50% 2009 marks the first decrease in global energy consumption since the first oil crisis

9. © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA, 2010 2009: A change in the largest energy consumer 2012 Mtoe Due to the more severe impact of the crisis on the US economy, China became the largest energy consumer in 2009 instead of 2011 or 2012.

10. © OECD/IEA 2011 Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 201020152020202520302035 Mtoe China India Other developing Asia Russia Middle East Rest of world OECD

11. © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA, 2010 Efficiency53% Renewables21% Biofuels3% Nuclear9% CCS15% Share of cumulative abatement between 2010-2035 20 25 30 35 40 45 200820152020202520302035 Gt 42.6 Gt 21.7 Gt 450 Scenario 20.9 Gt Current Policies Scenario

12. © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA, 2010 A few Q/A on evidence and impacts to conclude Has the decrease in energy consumption continued in 2010? Thank you No. Preliminary data show a 4.5% rebound, with coal consumption increasing by almost 7% and oil by 2%. What is the consequence of the ever growing demand for energy? Dramatic! If nothing is done in terms of energy policy, the world will never meet the 450 ppm target, but is more on track to a 650 ppm scenario. This means that instead of an average + 2 Celsius on Earth by the end of the century (450 ppm), we might very well have to face a + 6 Celsius (650 ppm) with all the dramatic climate changes associated with. Can we do something about it? YES! Increase energy efficiency. Change our energy mix: more renewables (more nuclear?). Be cleaner: develop CCS solutions as often as possible. The world is not lacking of energy. But the world is lacking of time… Efficiency53% Renewables21% Biofuels3% Nuclear9% CCS15% Share of cumulative abatement between 2010-2035 20 25 30 35 40 45 200820152020202520302035 Gt 42.6 Gt 21.7 Gt 450 Scenario 20.9 Gt Current Policies Scenario