Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR The Arkansas Economic Outlook October 15, 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR The Arkansas Economic Outlook October 15, 2014 Disclaimer: The views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, the University of Arkansas System, or the Institute for Economic Advancement.

Arkansas’ Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Arkansas’ Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Arkansas’ Experience By some measures, Arkansas is faring better than the rest of the nation E.g., Personal Income, Proprietors’ Income, Dividends & Interest, etc. By other measures, Arkansas is lagging behind E.g., Employment, Wages and Salaries, Labor Force Participation Common element: Weak Labor Market Conditions (even weaker than we thought)

Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, Institute for Economic Advancement. Home Sales

Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, Institute for Economic Advancement. Home Sales

Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economic Forecasts "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." - Niels Bohr, Nobel prize-winning physicist.

Forecast Methodology Model: Arkansas Baseline from Moody’s Analytics.  Part of a structural econometric model of the U.S. Economy  Linked to US forecast, with relationships estimated by sector  Baseline forecast from Moody’s macroeconomic U.S. model Alternative Forecast Paths:  Moody’s  Wells Fargo  Wall Street Journal  Blue Chip Consensus  NABE

Employment Q4/Q4 Growth K -0.8% K +0.6% K +1.1% K +2.1% K +2.0%

Employment Q4/Q4 Growth K -0.8% K -0.2% K +0.9% K +2.1% K +2.0% Including expected revision in 2015

Employment Q4/Q4 Growth K -0.8% K +0.6% K +1.1% K +2.1% K +2.0% Q4/Q4 Growth K -0.8% K -0.2% K +0.9% K +2.1% K +2.0% As Published Expected Revision

Unemployment End of Year (Q4)

Real GDP

Q4/Q4 Growth (%)

Personal Income Q4/Q4 Growth (%)

Retail Sales Q4/Q4 Growth (%)

Home Sales Sales (Pct. Change) K -0.2% K 10.1% K 8.4% K 9.9% K 6.0%

Arkansas Economist For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist: