1 What’s a RISA and why do fish care? August 28, 2006 Boulder, CO Robert S. Webb Physical Science Division Earth System Research Laboratory NOAA OAR

2 RISA = Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Funded by NOAA Climate Program Office (formerly Office of Global Programs ) Created mid 1990s to connect regional decision making with newly available climate information Enable NOAA to learn about how to create a National Climate Service Operate at all time scales: past, present, future Generally ‘climate’, not ‘weather’, centric At universities with strong climate programs Interact with NOAA Climate Offices and Laboratories Interdisciplinary Teams

3 RISA Mission, Tools, Techniques Typical Mission: Increase regional resilience to climate variability and change Tools and Techniques Sustained stakeholder interaction Usable applied research Outreach and Education – Synthesis Studies – Clearinghouse for Contacts, Information Decision Support Tools – Forecasts – Reconstructions and Projections of Climate – Ecosystem Management – Regional Climate Summaries

4 8 NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (“RISA”) Programs 4 Programs in the West 6 of the 8 RISAs deal with climate and coastal issues ‘Building Bridges Between Climate Science and Society’ Regional Focused, All Time Scales Not normal science! – ‘co-production of knowledge’ RISAs want and need stakeholder involvement

5 CIG: Climate Change, Salmon Recovery CAP: Snowpack, runoff, CALFED Bay-Delta WWA: Natural Peal Flow Hydrograph, Colorado EIS ACCAP: Sea Ice and Marine Ecosystems SECC:Water quality, Everglades Agricultural Area CISA:Coastal Climate Extension, sustainability Pacific: Climate impacts on fisheries coastal resource management, coral reefs, agriculture and tourism FISHY RISA Projects

6 CIG case study: evolution of climate information for salmon management climate impact A fishery oceanography study identifies a climate impact Climate variability explains a large fraction of the space- time variations in 20th Century Pacific salmon catches (and presumably abundance) CIG (Hare, Mantua, Francis) promote the use of climate information for salmon management by describing the research results at meetings and workshops … yet no managers want to use our results! The response from fishery management staff: “Your work is interesting, but it doesn’t suit our needs” CIG partners with a NOAA fisheries scientist involved in salmon management to develop a forecast tool they can use In the process, we learn how to match the space-time scales of climate information with those of salmon management

7 A North-South see-saw in salmon production Warm PDOCool PDOWarm PDO ??? Cool PDO Spring chinook returns to the Columbia River mouth (1000s) Alaska pink and sockeye catch (millions)

8 Scale of research vs. scale of decisions PDO impacts on salmon across the North Pacific: large regional scales, multi-year fluctuations Annual stock specific management decisions Research identifies the links between climate and North- South pattern of salmon production Annual management decisions made on a stock by stock (river by river) basis

9 Forecasting Oregon Coho Salmon Returns using climate observations and SST forecasts Coastal Ocean Conditions Sea surface temperatures Sea level Nearshore winds Oregon coho salmon survival SpringFallWinterSummer Jack returns Harvest & allocation decisions (February) Fishery Run-size forecast -using obs’d conditions Run-size forecast (using SST forecast) Plankton surveys

10 Impacts of Climate Change on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River However, Climate Change will make salmon restoration more difficult: Decreasing Summer Low Flows Increasing Winter Peak Flows Increasing water temperatures in critical periods Decreasing Spawning Flows Increasing Winter Flows Habitat restoration can mitigate the negative impacts of Climate Change on salmon habitat

11 WWA Case study: Critical water problem in the Colorado River Ecosystems Federal reserved rights for the Black Canyon of the Gunnison Upper Colorado Recovery Implementation Program for Endangered Fish Other instream flow requirements Salinity/Water quality Salinity Control Act implementation and mitigation of water quality problems from agricultural return flows Equity Indian Water Rights, reserved when reservations were established Livelihoods and cultures of ranching and farming on the west slope Competition among uses Transmountain water diversions Agriculture vs. urban uses Recreation and amenity instream uses vs consumptive uses, including rafting industry, hiking and hunting tourism

12 Pitlick and Van Steeter (1997)  A climate-sensitive issue is how to provide spring peak flows and late summer minimum in stream flows to support the recovery of of endangered fish.  This changing policy environment is forcing a “release” of past constraints on reservoir management, and a “reorganization” phase that is in progress  Opportunity: Reservoir managers are seeking new tools to help in a more complicated job, and thus open to using climate information; as well as other types of information and tools Problem and User: Reservoir Management Colorado Pike Minnow

13 Natural Average (pre 1950) Empounded Average (post 1950) Single Subthreshold Peak Double Subthreshold Peaks Practically No Peak Habitat Threshold Spring Peak Flow Scenarios x1000

14 reservoir capacity Reservoir Hydrograph (volume in acre/feet) spill and flood miss filling to capacity bypass flow Their Challenge Our Problem Orientation

15 The NOAA long lead precipitation and temperature forecasts can be incorporated into a Fall forecast of winter snowpack accumulation and with implications for subsequent April-June runoff An improved understanding of ENSO influences on seasonal evolution of snowpack that can lead to more accurately planned “start of fill” target By late Spring, the NOAA long lead precipitation and temperature forecasts can be incorporated into summer season forecast irrigation demands Throughout the Spring -- one to two week precipitation and temperature forecasts can be used to provide improved estimates of of volume and timing of spring peak flows needed to augment peak flows for habitat restoration as well as to enhance flood mitigation operations Throughout the Summer -- one to two week precipitation and temperature forecasts to improve both hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and low flow mitigation Entry Points for Climate Information

16 Decision Calendar Framework Hydropower Decision Calendars Oct Planning data decisions tion planning gmentation releases Municipal & Industrial Decision Calendars Oct Planning data decisions tion planning gmentation releases Aquatic Ecosystems Decision Calendars Oct Planning data decisions tion planning gmentation releases Outdoor Recreation Decision Calendars Oct Planning data decisions tion planning gmentation releases Agriculture Production Decision Calendars Oct Planning data decisions tion planning gmentation releases

17 Challenges in Incorporating Climate Science Research in Decision making FactorWater Manager’s PerspectiveResearcher’s Perspective Identifying critical issue Time frame Spatial resolution Goals Basis for Decisions Expectation Product Characteristics Frame Nature of Use Applied (aka Terry Fulp) Conceptual (aka Marty Hoerling)