Evaluating Theories of Crime
What is a “Theory?” A statement of set of statements about the relationships between 2 or more events In criminology? A theory predicts what will happen, not how the world should be
Types of Crime Theories From Edwin Sutherland Theories of “making and enforcing” criminal law. How is law formed? Why are certain acts illegal? How are laws enforced and with whom? Theories of “law breaking” Micro = Why is one person more crime prone than others? (DV is “criminal behavior”) Macro = Why is one group more crime prone than others? (DV is “crime rate”)
How do you know a “good theory” when you see one? Akers’ 6 criteria for evaluating a theory 1. Logical Consistency 2. Scope 3. Parsimony 4. Testability 5. Fit with Empirical Evidence 6. Usefulness of Policy Implications
Logical Consistency Clearly Defined Concepts Concept = symbol/label that we apply to an abstract image Examples? Concepts must fit in a logical manner BAD LOGIC: All crime is caused by imprisonment
SCOPE (not the mouthwash) DEPENDENT variable How “general” is your explanation? Specific forms of crime/deviance? All crime? All crime, deviance, sin, and recklessness? All else being equal, “Wider is Better”
Parsimony INDEPENDENT (predictor) variables How complex is your explanation? Parsimony: Low self-control is single cause of crime Not: Crime caused by a combination of poverty, inequality, average daily temperature, intelligence, hair color, weight, daily stress… All else being equal, more parsimony is better!
Testability A valid theory can be falsified Non-falsifiable theories? Tautological arguments (crime causes crime) Vague and open-ended statements (Freud) Must be observe/measure concepts (little green men)
Is the theory correct? Survive empirical scrutiny Few theories are entirely correct or false To what degree is the theory supported? Preponderance of evidence support? Incorrect theories must be modified or discarded
Policy Implication All crime theories attempt to identify the “causes” of crime. Can the causes be reversed? Does the theory translate into practice? Example: Marxist theory of crime
Flow Chart for Evaluation NO = Useless, stop here Evaluate the Following: Scope Parsimony Policy Implications Falsifiable? Logical? Yes Empirical Evidence? YES NO: Modify/Discard
Empirical Principles I Establishing Causation X (predictor) must precede Y (outcome) X must be related to Y The relationship between X and Y must not be “spurious”
Ruling out Spuriousness Experiments “Random assignment” Survey Research Cross-sectional vs. Longitudinal Statistical Control Self-report and Official Data