Some Conclusions: Doing comparative politics Reflections on Regime Change

Final exam: Saturday, December 8 th 9:00-11:00 AA1043

Doing comparative politics Comparative politics as the study of differences and similarities among political systems Search for systematic explanations: A way of understanding why things happen the way that they do A device for understanding other countries A way of getting perspective on your own country

What have you learned? Role of societal factors: Civil society & social capital Political culture Political participation –forms that it takes –impact

Role of Linkage structures Political Parties Interest groups Other forms of linkage: patron-client relationships Media

Impact of constitutions & political institutions Parliaments Political Executives –How the two are linked together Role of bureaucracy Impact of interest groups Policy-processes & how they operate

What you should take from this? A sense of how things operate: What is behind the news How political ‘situations are likely to play out, e.g. in –Pakistan –Russia –Middle East Peace Process

Case of Pakistan State of emergency declared Supreme Court Justices removed and arrested Civil society actors protest: –Lawyers rounded up, detained Musharraff resigns from military, assumes presidency as a civilian Declares that state of emergency will end Dec. 16 th Elections to be held

Problem: Can Musharraf succeed as a civilian president? Problem of legitimizing his actions Problem of channeling political forces –Political parties –The army & police Problem of getting agreement when you can’t command it And, the tribal lands…

Regime Change & How It Occurs Broader problematique: Transitions from authoritarianism to liberal democracies sometimes Because of internal factors, e.g. –inability of regime to deliver what it has promised –Internal revolt, overthrow Sometimes because of invasion and total defeat –Postwar Germany –Postwar Italy –Postwar Japan

Imposing regime change: Possible in Germany, Japan & Italy because Occupier was in firm control Regimes in question were definitively defeated Political forces were strictly channeled –Some prohibited or kept in opposition Postwar Italy and Japan as one-party dominant states Reconstructed regimes integrated into –Broader alliances –Western economies No other alternatives available or politically possible

Building and consolidating liberal democracy Requires Some minimal agreement on institutions, form of government – contingent consent –Recognition that the new regime is “the only game in town” –A political and economic situation in which key groups support or tolerate the new regime A civil society and political culture in which –Citizens & groups feel that they can participate –Differences and oppositions are tolerated –The regime is regarded as legitimate

Does this fit post-invasion Iraq? Relatively educated population, but isolated Likely resentment against the US, west in Iraq, Arab countries, Muslim world Problems of a plural society – artificial construct –Kurds, in the north –Shia majority, in the south Inexperience… but possible tutelage Is there contingent consent. If so, among whom?

Problems: What incentives will there be to sustain democratic rule? What incentives or motives will make individuals or groups want to overturn Importance of context, especially what is happening in neighboring countries