Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency Developments for Climate Services at Japan Meteorological Agency 1

2 Climate Information Provision from the Climate Prediction Division, JMA Forecast Unit Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Regional Climate Center(RCC) in RAII (Asian Region) Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Regional Climate Center(RCC) in RAII (Asian Region) Global Climate Monitoring Unit Global Warming Unit Climate System Monitoring Unit El Niño Unit Numerical Climate Prediction and Re-analysis Unit Climate Prediction Division JMA Domestic Users National Meteorological (Climatologica l)Services in Asia

3 Climate Services at JMA Climate Monitoring, Monthly Forecast JRA-25 JCDAS JRA-55 Seasonal Forecast ENSO outlook Advisory Panel on Extreme Events Early Warning Information on Extreme Weather

Dynanucal Monthly Forecasts (once a week), GSM9603 (T63L30M10) Dynamical 3-month Forecasts GSM0103 (T63L40M31) Dynamical warm/cold season forecasts. GSM0103 (T63L40M31) Early Warning for Extreme Weather (2-week forecast) Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled model for seasonal forecast 4 History of JMA Long-Range Forecasts Ocean Data Assimilation System ENSO outlook Atmosphere-ocean coupled model JMA-CGCM JMA/MRI-CGCM AGCM: T L 95L40 OGCM: MRI.COM 0.3°-1°×1° Ocean Data Assimilation: MOVE- MRI.COM

5 Summary of Monthly to Seasonal Prediction of JMA 1 month 3 months 7 months Early warning Information on Extreme events 1-month forecast 3-month forecast warm/cold season forecast ENSO outlook operate d models AGCM T L 159L60 50 member CGCM JMA/MRI-CGCM AGCM: T L 95L40 OGCM: deg x 1 deg 51 member 2 weeks week 1 Week 2 Week 3&4 1 month (4 weeks) month-2 month-1 month-3 3 months (summer/winter) ENSO, Indian Ocean SST The seasonal forecast system and ENSO prediction system were integrated with an atmosphere-ocean coupled model in Feb

6 New JMA Seasonal Forecast System coupler (w/ flux adjustment) Climate Data Assimilation JRA-25/JCDAS Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled model (JMA/MRI-CGCM) JMA GSM TL95L40: ~180km Ocean model (MRI.COM ) 1.0°×(0.3°-1.0°), 51 levels Ocean Data Assimilation System MOVE/MRI.COM-G Atmospheric perturbations Trop.&Ext. trop bred vector Atmospheric I. C. Oceanic I. C. Atmospheric BGM + Lagged Averaging Forecast Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division

7 Advisory Panel on Extreme Climate Events Research Community Scientific comments on climate monitoring, suggestion on improvement of analysis Extraordinary meeting Analysis of the event Annual meeting Review of Panel activities, extreme climate events in the year J M A Timely statement on causes of the extreme climate event Regular provision of related information Observational data, analysis tools, operational monitoring information on climate system Analysis tools of extreme climate events Extreme event!! Sharing data, tools, and information on current status of climate system Schematic figure of the framework

Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division 8 Thank you for your attention.

The JMA seasonal forecast system and ENSO prediction system were integrated with a coupled forecast system. (Feb. 2010) CGCM: JMA/MRI-CGCM, Ocean Data Assimilation system: MOVE/MRI.COM-G CO 2 concentration is considered in hindcasts/real- time forecast (extrapolation with linear trend.) New calibration technique with a model output statistics (MOS) has been implemented to the seasonal forecast system. (Feb. 2010) Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division 9 Revisions of Forecast Systems

Comprehensive verification of the new coupled seasonal forecast system. Improvement of the forecast skill has been confirmed with the new coupled model. Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division 10 Research Activities Old system (AGCM)New system (CGCM) Anomaly correlation scores of 850-hPa stream function for (a, c) the old system with AGCM and (b, d) the new system with CGCM. (a) JJA forecast from Feb. (b) JJA forecast from Feb. (c) DJF forecast from Sep. (d) DJF forecast from Sep.

Implementation of a satellite simulator (COSP) for model diagnostics/verifications. A study of an agricultural application of monthly forecasts is planned in collaboration with Tohoku Univ. and the National Agricultural Research Center for Tohoku Region. Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division 11 Ongoing/planned Research Activities

A hindcast for the next version of the monthly forecast system. (A new model is planned to be introduced in Feb ) Reduced gaussian grid New aerosol climatology Modification in a land surface model to improve soil moisture representation. Investigation of impacts of a sea-ice boundary condition for monthly forecasts (AGCM) and sea-ice model coupling (CGCM) Development of the prototype of the next coupled model Off-line verification of land surface models Development of a two-stream approximation method to decrease computational cost, to consider the cloud scattering effect in the long wave radiation. Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division 12 Ongoing/planned Developments