1. SEASONAL PREDICTION OVER EAST ASIA FOR JUNE-JULY-AUGUST 2017
FOCRAII, Beijing
24~26 April 2017
SEASONAL PREDICTION
OVER EAST ASIA
FOR JUNE-JULY-AUGUST 2017
25 APRIL 2017
Tae-Kook Kim
Water Resources Management Center

2. Contents Introduction of Water Resources Management Center in K-water
Seasonal Prediction over East
Asia for JJA 2017 II
Summary
III

3. K-water – Water Resources Management Center
National organization for Integrated Water Management
HUB of Water Management in Korea
35 dams
16 weirs
25 hydropower plants
* 78 generator (1,061MW)
446 gauging stations
185 warning stations
Facilities
Head Quarter
Command Center
Imjin
river
Hangang
Regional Head Office
Han
river
Three Regional Head Office
- Water Resources Management Center
Geum
river
Nakdonggang
Regional Head Office
Nakdong
river
Dam Operation Team
ICT Team
Sumjin
river
Youngsan
river
Hydropower Generation Team
Geum·Yeong·Seom
Regional Head Office
Meteorological Analysis Team

4. Meteorological Analysis Typhoon Forecast and Analysis
Tasks of Meteorological Analysis Team
Short-term Weather Forecast
Long-term Seasonal Forecast
3 ㎞ × 3 ㎞ horizontal resolution
5 days (1 hour interval) rainfall forecast
Quantitative rainfall over 33 multi-purpose
dams and 16 weirs
Operationally 4 times/1day forecast
Long-range (3 months) seasonal prediction
50 ㎞ × 50 ㎞ horizontal resolution
Analysis of Seasonal Pattern (Temperature and precipitation)
Specialized over 16 Dam Basins
Meteorological Analysis
for
Water
Management
Typhoon Forecast and Analysis
2 ㎞ × 2 ㎞ horizontal resolution
Typhoon track and estimation of typhoon- influence region and its rainfall pattern
Using dynamical typhoon prediction and statistical analysis method

5. MODEL for Long-term Seasonal Prediction
CAM5.1.1 (CESM1.0.4)
CESM Coupler
Dynamical Core
Dynamics : Finite Volume
Horizontal coordinate : Gaussian grid
Vertical coordinate : Lagrangian (‘floating’) vertical
coordinate
Time Stepping : Arakawa C and D horizontal staggering
CAM
Atmosphere
CLM
Land
DOCN
Ocean
SST data Mode
CICE
Sea Ice
Prescribed mode
Coupler
Physics scheme
Shallow Convection : Park et al. (2009)
Deep Convection : Neale et al. (2008)
Microphysics : Morrison and Gettelman (2008)
Macrophysics : Park et al. (2011)
Radiation : Lacono et al. (2008)
Aerosols : Modal Aerosol Model Ghan et al. (2011)

6. MODEL Configuration for the Ensemble Forecast
Configuration for Seasonal Prediction
Seasonal Prediction for JJA 2017
MODEL Configuration for the Ensemble Forecast
Dynamics : Finite Volume
Model : CAM5.1.1 / CESM1.0.4
Horizontal Resolution : About 50 km (0.47oⅹ0.63o)
Ensemble Member : 10 members
Ensemble Method : Lag Average Forecast Method
Prediction Period : About 5 months from end of Mar. To Aug. (Spin-up : 2 months)
Initial conditions : GFS Analysis fields (21st ~25th Mar. 00/12UTC )
Boundary conditions : Prescribed BDY from NOAA OI SST, Sea Ice concentration
(NOAA OI weekly mean)
Predicted Variable : 2m Temperature, Precipitation, Sea Level Pressure, Vertically
Geopotential Height, Wind, etc.
Physics scheme
Shallow Convection : Park et al. (2009)
Deep Convection :Neale et al. (2008)
Microphysics : Morrison and Gettelman (2008)
Macrophysics : Park et al. (2011)
Radiation : Lacono et al. (2008)
Aerosols : Modal Aerosol Model Ghan et al. (2011)

7. Prescribed SST Anomaly
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly ( ~ 21)
Niño 4
Niño 3
Niño 1+2
Niño 3.4

8. IRI ENSO Forecast
El Niño/La Niña Prediction for Summer 2017

9. Seasonal Prediction – Temperature
10 Days and Monthly Temperature Prediction at 850 mb
Above normal until mid-June (before Changma season)
Above normal in August

10. Seasonal Prediction – Precipitation
10 Days and Monthly Precipitation Prediction
Above normal from end of June to early July (during Changma)

11. Possible Factors (1) – Expansion of WNPH
North-Westward Expansion of Western North Pacific High (WNPH)
June
: Relative high over North Pacific
 Development of WNPH
 Higher temperature,
Earlier Changma
July
: Persistence of high GP
 Rainfall activation with
strong intraseasonal variability
August
: Persistence of positive anomaly
in GP over Kamchatka peninsula
 Possibility of heat waves like
last year (2016)
Climatology
Prediction

12. Possible Factors (2) – South-Westerlies with Moisture
Strong South-Westerlies with More Moisture Flux at 850 mb
Mid-June to early July
: Supply more moisture
over Korean Peninsula
with strong south-westerlies
August
: Normal distribution
due to the expansion of
Western North Pacific High

13. Schematic Diagrams for This Seasonal Prediction
During Changma Period (End-June – Mid-July)
After Changma Period (August)
Moisture Flux
Geopotential Height anomaly
Higher Temperature around East Asia
Higher GP and Expansion west/northward
More Moisture Flux
 Activation of Changma Front
Higher Temperature around East Asia
More Higher GP along Southern China to Kamchatka Peninsula
Persistence of Higher Temperature and
occurring HWs
Climatology
Prediction of Geopotential Height

14. 850 mb Temperature Prediction over Korean Peninsula
Prediction for Every 10 days and months

15. Precipitation Prediction over Korean Peninsula
Prediction for Every 10 days and months

16. Summary 2017 Summer prediction over Korean Peninsula Temperature
Precipitation
Jun
Jul
Aug
Early 10 days
0/+
0/-
Middle 10 days +
Last 10 days
Monthly

17. Thank you